Posted on 09/15/2020 6:43:32 AM PDT by nwrep
Note: This is a poll by Scott Rasmussen, separate from and not aligned with Rasmussen Reports. The poll uses a highly optimistic turnout model assuming a 36-37 R-D split, which is the most favorable Republican model of any pollsters, assuming near parity with Dems.
The key findings:
Out of 941 likely voters polled, 48% said they would vote for Biden, while 43% would choose Trump. The president has lost one percentage point since a similar poll roughly two weeks ago, while Biden's share of the likely vote has remained the same.
"GOP voters seem more engaged and more likely to turn out. However, Biden has a bigger lead within his party (82 points) than Trump does in his (75 points). Biden has a modest lead among Independents."
The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Rasmussen using a mixed-mode approach from September 10-12. The sample included 941 Likely Voters, defined as those who say they are “definitely going to vote” or “very likely to vote” and who know how they will vote. The Likely Voter sample was 36% Republican, 37% Democrat and 27% Independent.
...most of the Republican candidates are in an uproar over it.
____________
Which candidates in which Districts/precincts? What levels?
How does anyone know *which voters need to be swayed*? The slicing/dicing of the market is one area I know the Trump campaign excels at.
I am 77. I have been politically aware>>active for 66 years. I was in business, self-employed and dealing with both retail and wholesale accounts, for over 55 years.
One thing I observed in all that time is the decline in advertising persuasion. That has accelerated as the cognitive dissonance between what is promulgated via ads versus the received benefit/fulfilled need has increased.
I have spent the required $$ and sucked up to the *must have* endorsers just enough to discover it is often a well-organized cartel aimed at sucking up seller $$ and energy and it is used to increase anxiety. I employed sales reps (aka: sales reptiles) who couldn’t sell their way out of a fire with a tanker of water and a hose. (I did this for another successful line in a totally different media/venue and the results were exactly the same.)
I made a living on a 4-unit product line with absolutely no advertising for 22 out of 35 years that included the 2008-2017 zer0 Recession. My distributors did little advertising. I did not do trade shows for 20 years of that time.
What sold my product (and the other product line I worked with) was the product and everyone who bought one came back to buy more as gifts. The product carried a brand and a contact line. That direct sales interaction sold hundreds of thousands of a small item in a sub-niche market that never even had a long-lasting competitor because it was simply the best of its kind.
I had national corporate sales managers threaten to take my idea and have it made in China. Didn’t work. I had econuts spontaneously target my product for not being eco-PC. Didn’t work. I had *colleagues* jealously announce that because it wasn’t a consumable,it would be a flash in the pan. I had competitors masquerading as accounts steal employees to pump them for production/sourcing details. Failed.
It was _my customers_ who informed me of some of these attempts and they were always amused. It lasted over 35 years until I retired. I could revive it today and instantly reclaim every single distributor and retail customer. No one has because they did not ever think beyond what they already believe they know.
Question received wisdom, always. Realize it can change on a dime.
I sort of agree with any decision to back off TV advertising while the weather is still good.
People have been locked down.
Because of that, internet is their chief interaction.
Sitting still to watch TV is no way to pass time. Radio can be listened to while doing other things and mobile devices are always available.
I do not have ROI for various forms of advertising. Do you? I do know the click-thru rates on search results for online content (which I assume would include political ads)depends on volume and is low on a per capita basis.
I am amused, to be honest, that even local campaign workers with no access to the raw numbers and the documented returns are 2nd guessing the people whose careers depend on getting things right and who are responsible for millions & millions of dollars. We could all learn a lot from their spreadsheets.
So, I get you are worried and frustrated. What are you doing? Door knocking? Making sure signs are out and prominent? (I believe the signs sway opinion IF there are virtual seas of them of for one candidate, like there are, most places, for Trump) Are you organizing rallies, cruises, floatillas, flag-wavings in areas with undecided, swayable voters? Volunteering to drive elderly and infirm to the polls?
Those actions count. I was a county chair for an R campaign back in the day and a street organizer 30 years prior to that. Get people to commit and put skin in the game and you have swayed their vote and opinion because we are hardwired to justify our actions to ourselves.
Organize sub-groups of supporters and sub-sub groups of those. That targets the smallest demos, of which the individual is the smallest. Have watch parties for Trump and other R candidate rallies. People will convince each other. Do it online, via chat groups in this era of lock downs. Recruit influencers (every locale has them) and let them work their peer-pressure magic on their followers and friends.
None of us know the real reasons the campaign director was replaced. Trump works on a time line known only to himself and relies on his famous gut. He is admittedly a master of timing after a lifetime of negotiations at the stratospheric level and 14 years of reality TV with top ratings. He himself is accessible online daily and if you watch on a platform with enabled chat, you can learn a lot about those rooting for him. Every one of those supporters goes on to influence others.
Have you and those who agree with you run any surveys to see what public reactions to negative campaigning is? It has changed. I can tell just from the comments on various sites I trawl for opinion, not all of them pro-Trump.
In short, you are having a tantrum in a teaspoon and if you replace it with proactivity, you will not only feel better, you will actually accomplish something.
...if his act is wearing thin.
__________________________________
It isn’t.
People defy local edicts to attend his events. They chant *We love you*.
Why is that? Because Trump is authentic. He is not an act and people instinctively know this.
Which is why everyone of his detractors tries ad hominems. The connection with his voters is as real as he is and all the opponents can do is hand-wring and wonder aloud why people do not change their opinion of him.
No, it doesn't.
It's a D+5 weighted sample of REGISTERED voters that resulted in a +5 for the Democrat.
See Methodology.
It's a 32/37 R/D weighted sample from a 31/35 unweighted population. The slide in the article footnotes a 2.8% MOE, which corresponds to the registered voter population in the Methodology document.
-PJ
And the elimination of Social Security “card “is played by the democrats every presidential election.
__________________________________
And has never happened. I have paid close attention to these two issues due to age for 20 years. One thing I believe about POTUS, is he may well change SS and Medicare and for the better as far as low-income seniors are concerned.
I have learned over time that I am never unique in my responses. I may be in a smaller group as to being outspoken, but experience tells me there are millions who agree, but are too timid to speak out. They will come up to the outspoken ones and whisper their agreement.
The poll is bullshit. Don’t believe it. Challenge it at every opportunity.
This is a D+5 sample of REGISTERED voters that resulted in a D+5 result.
_____________________________________
And as such, it is recycled D boilerplate and worthless. D+5 is the accepted margin since time began. The stats LS has repeatedly cited show that is already in the dumpster.
It may even now be at R+2 as a starting point.
Preach it!
Thanks LS, appreciate the detailed response. I am heartened by the certainty and conviction in your post. I hope you are right.
It’s a D+5 weighted sample of REGISTERED voters that resulted in a +5 for the Democrat.
See Methodology.
It’s a 32/37 R/D weighted sample from a 31/35 unweighted population. The slide in the article footnotes a 2.8% MOE, which corresponds to the registered voter population in the Methodology document.
= = = = = =
Thanks.
I wonder why that wasn’t spelled at at OP?
(No, I don’t :)
Good!
Now, step away from the NeverTrumper posting ledge.
We need all hands on the Trump deck, here.
I hope you are right about the debates but I have serious doubts there will be any. You can see the democrats already testing the idea of no debates. If there is a first debate and if Biden has anywhere near a decent coherent showing you can bet there will not be any follow up debates.
Thank you!
You’re welcome!
I hope you are right about the debates but I have serious doubts there will be any
I watched POTUS live earlier today. As he was taking questions from the @sshole reporters he said
“Joe Biden’s mind is shot. That’s very dangerous. You know whose mind isn’t shot? Vladimir Putin’s! Xi Jinping’s!”
BWAAH HAH HAH HAH I LOVE this President!
The following poll shows Trump voters a smashing 42 points more enthusiastic DON’T BELIEVE ME? Read it!
The 42 point enthusiasm lead is all you need to know.
US election 2020: Trump handed huge boost as Biden makes major mistake - Exclusive poll
DONALD TRUMP is on course for a clear victory in the US Presidential election after he opened up a three point lead over Joe Biden in an exclusive poll for the Sunday Express.
By DAVID MADDOX, SUNDAY EXPRESS POLITICAL EDITOR
PUBLISHED: 22:00, Sat, Aug 29, 2020 | UPDATED: 22:51, Sat, Aug 29, 2020
20
According to the latest monthly Democracy Institute (DI)/ Sunday Express poll President Trump has 48 percent of the popular support over former Vice President Biden’s 45 percent.
In the key swing states the gap is even bigger with 49 percent for Trump to 42 percent for Biden giving the incumbent US President an almost unassailable seven point lead.
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Since the DI poll in August - a crucial month which saw the Democrat and Republican conventions - the President has gained a point in the swing states while his opponent has lost a point.
Significantly, the latest poll shows that 21 percent were positively influenced to vote Trump after the Republican convention but a negligible eight percent were inspired to vote Biden after the Democrat convention.
Trump is set to win in Minnesota 48 to 45, Florida 47 to 44 and New Hampshire, where he just held a major rally, 47 to 43.
It also appears clear that US voters have already made up their minds with a mere 3 percent of Trump voters and 9 percent of Biden supporters suggesting they could have a change of heart on polling day on November 3.
Patrick Basham, the director of the Democracy Institute, said that the polls confirm that the Democrats completely misread the effect of the Black Lives Matter protests and the desire of Americans to restore law and order in the wake of riots and anarchic protests.
He said: “In any political campaign, there’s a moment that tells you which way the electoral wind is blowing. In this year’s American presidential campaign, that moment arrived on Wednesday.
“Joe Biden restated his support for peaceful protests but, crucially, condemned the violence that has come to dominate the months-long nationwide protest movement.
)
“When a candidate changes his tune three quarters of the way through a race, it is not because he knows he holds a winning hand. He does so because the electoral ground is shifting beneath his feet.
“The Biden campaign made this move for one simple reason. Its own internal polling numbers revealed what Democracy Institute/Sunday Express polls have shown for the past three months: the overwhelming majority of Americans, including Black voters, are opposed to the organised anarchy – looting, vandalism, mayhem, and murdering of innocent people – explicitly and implicitly cheered on by a considerable cabal of Democratic politicians, while an even large number simply turned a blind eye.”
According to the poll law and order is clearly the top political issue with 37 percent putting it as the most important followed by 27 percent for the economy.
According to the poll 74 percent favour of “all lives matter” over 26 percent “black lives matter an increase in the gap by two percent since August showing that US voters are tired of the protests.
Almost two thirds of them think that Biden has not been tough enough in his language condemning the violence.
Almost eight in ten voters disapprove of statues being pulled down and 26 percent of voters say the latest violence in Wisconsin makes them more likely to vote Trump compared to 10 percent Biden.
The decision by Joe Biden to make Kamala Harris, a mixed race woman senator, his running mate has had minimal impact with 11 percent more likely to support him and 12 percent less likely.
Two thirds of voters also think that the economy is bouncing back in the US after coronavirus and 59 percent think Trump is best to handle an economic recovery.However, President Trump supporters are still shy of admitting they back him with 72 percent not wanting to admit it to friends and family compared to 28 percent for Biden.National Popular Vote
• Trump = 48%
• Biden = 45%
• Undecided = 7%
• White voters: Trump = 53% Biden = 45%
• Black: Trump 19% Biden = 77%
• Hispanic: Trump 39% Biden = 50%
Battleground States – Popular VoteFlorida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
• Trump = 49%
• Biden = 42%
• Undecided = 10%
Florida – Popular Vote
• Trump = 47%
• Biden = 44%
• Undecided = 9%
Minnesota – Popular Vote
• Trump = 48%
• Biden = 45%
• Undecided = 7%
TRENDING
New Hampshire – Popular Vote
• Trump = 47%
• Biden = 43%
• Undecided = 10%
Electoral College Vote Projection (if election voting mirrored these poll results)270 needed to win
• Trump = 319 [picks-up Minnesota & New Hampshire]
• Biden = 219
Enthusiasm Gap?Q. “Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?”
• Trump voters = 82%
• Biden voters = 40%
Q. “Is your vote for Trump/Biden a positive vote for your candidate or a negative vote against his opponent?
• Trump voters: positive vote = 85%; negative vote = 15%
• Biden voters: positive vote = 34%; negative vote = 66%
Q “Could your vote change before Election Day?”
• Trump voters: Yes = 3%
• Biden voters: Yes = 9%
‘Shy’ Trump Vote? Questions to Undecided VotersQ “Does a relative, friend, or coworker plan to vote for Trump?”
• Yes = 72%
• No = 28%
Q “Will President Trump be reelected?”
• Yes = 57%
• No = 43%
Q “Which candidate will win the first presidential debate?”
• Trump = 66%
• Biden = 35%
Question to All VotersQ “Are you comfortable with your relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how you vote?”
• Trump voters: Yes = 25%
• Biden voters: Yes = 86%
Q “Which candidate will win the first presidential debate?”
• Trump = 56%
• Biden = 44%
Trump’s National Job Approval
• Approve = 52%
• Disapprove = 46%
Party ID – Trump’s National Job Approval
• Republican = 86%
• Democrat = 28%
• Independent = 49%
Race/ethnicity – Trump’s National Job Approval
• White = 58%
• Black = 42%
• Hispanic = 46%
Gender – Trump’s National Job Approval
• Men = 54%
• Women = 48%
Religion – Trump’s National Job Approval
• Evangelical = 90%
• Protestant = 62%
• Catholic = 64%
• Jewish = 33%
• Atheist = 10%
Age – Trump’s National Job Approval
• 65 years & over = 58%
• 45-64 years = 64%
• 30-44 years = 45%
• 18-29 years = 38%
Marital Status – Trump’s National Job Approval
• Married 63%
• Single 31%
Party Conventions
Q “Did the Democratic national convention that nominated the Biden-Harris ticket make you more or less likely to vote for the Biden-Harris ticket?”
• More likely = 8%
• Less likely = 13%
• No difference = 79%
Q “Did/has the Republican national convention that nominated the Trump-Pence ticket make/made you more or less likely to vote for the Trump-Pence ticket?”
• More likely = 21%
• Less likely = 9%
• No difference = 70%
Policy
Q “Which issue is most important to you?”
• Law & order/riots/violence = 37%
• Economy/jobs = 27%
• Education = 13%
• Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic = 13%
• Immigration = 10%
Economy
Q “Is the economy rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced shutdown?”
• Yes = 67%
• No = 33%
Q “Which candidate do you trust to do the best job handling the economy?”
• Trump = 59%
• Biden = 41%
)
Pandemic
Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic?”
• Approve = 44%
• Disapprove = 48%
Q “Will Trump or Biden do a better job of standing up to China?”
• Trump = 67%
• Biden = 31%
Education
Q “Do you want your local school to re-open soon?”
• Yes = 67%
• No = 33%
Black Lives Matter
Q “Which phrase better fits your own thinking about race in America?”
• Black Lives Matter = 26%
• All Lives Matter = 74%
Kamala Harris
Q “Did Joe Biden’s selection of Kamala Harris as his running mate make you more or less likely to vote for him?”
• More likely 11%
• Less likely 12%
• No difference 77%
Monuments / Statues
Q “Do you approve or disapprove of the removal of historic monuments and statues because certain individuals or groups find them offensive?”
• Approve 15%
• Disapprove 79%
• Don’t Know 6%
Policing / Law & Order
Q “Do the violent protests in Wisconsin make you more or less likely to vote for Trump?”
• More likely = 26%
• Less likely = 10%
• Makes no difference = 64%
National popular vote (Image: Democracy Institute (DI) / Sunday Express)
Q “Has President Trump’s approach to the ongoing protests and riots been too tough, just right under the circumstances, or not tough enough?”
• Too tough 23%
• Just right 33%
• Not tough enough 44%
Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the protests and riots?”
• Approve = 62%
• Disapprove = 38%
Q “Has Joe Biden been sufficiently critical of the violent rioting?”
• Yes = 34%
• No = 64%
Q “Should government prioritise law & order on city streets or prioritise improving relations between Black Americans and the police?”
• Law & order = 72%
• Improving relations between Black Americans & police = 26%
Q “Do you support de-funding your local police department?”
• Yes = 16%
• No = 75%
Candidate CharacteristicsBiden’s Mental AcuityQ “Do you think Joe Biden is experiencing some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia?”
• Yes = 59%
• No = 40%
• Don’t know = 1%
Q “Does your opinion of Joe Biden’s mental acuity make you more or less likely to vote for him?”
• More likely = 15%
• Less likely = 48%
• No difference = 37%
LeadershipQ “Is Trump/Biden a strong leader?”
• Trump = 70%
• Biden = 24%
Q “Is Trump/Biden a consensus builder?”
• Trump = 20%
• Biden = 55%
Q “Is Donald Trump a populist?”
• Yes = 77%
• No = 23%
Q “Is Joe Biden an establishment politician?”
• Yes = 64%
• No = 36%
Is Biden experiencing early stages of dementia? (Image: Democracy Institute (DI) / Sunday Express)
Personal Traits
Q “Is Trump/Biden too old to be president?”
• Trump = 35%
• Biden = 62%
Q “Is Trump/Biden a likeable person?”
• Trump = 32%
• Biden = 59%
Poll Methodology
The fieldwork for this survey of a randomly selected national telephone (landline and cell) sample of 1,500 likely voters was conducted by the Democracy Institute’s polling unit from August 26th to August 28th 2020. The survey was conducted via interactive voice response, in which recorded questions were played for randomly-dialled respondents and answers were given via their telephone keypads. To ensure a representative sample, the results were weighted for key demographic and political variables including, but not limited to, party identification, gender, age, education, income, region, voting history, and cell phone-only households.
The national poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. The national party identification turnout model is: Democrats = 37 percent; Republicans = 35 percent; and Independents = 28 percent.
The poll additionally surveyed 500 likely voters in Florida with a margin of error of +/- 4 percent; 450 likely voters in Minnesota with a margin of error of +/- 5 percent; and 400 likely voters in New Hampshire with a margin of error of +/- 5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval.
The state party identification turnout model for Florida is: Democrats = 37 percent; Republicans = 35 percent; and Independents = 27 percent. The state party identification turnout model for Minnesota is: Democrats = 46 percent; Republicans = 39 percent; and Independents = 15 percent. The state party identification turnout model for New Hampshire is: Democrats = 28 percent; Republicans = 31 percent; and Independents = 42 percent.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1329041/US-election-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden-latest-polling
The “poll” showing Biden leading is a ridiculous piece of crap
Yes, she will know her way around a Sig AR15 that I have waiting for her when she is mature enough.
I just see so many Biden signs around where I live in New Hsmpshire it is sickening. The once great Live Free or Die state is just a friggin joke now.
I can’t wait to get out of here and head down to my property in Florida, but by them it seems like there will be no safe place to go when Biden takes over.
There ARE more democrats.
Thanks, brother Larry. :)
Larry, you gotta check out reformedliberal’s post. Backtrack on this one. He speaks to the lessening effect of advertising, and has some experience to back it up.
Selection bias. By your words, you’re invested in it as your ‘information’.
I wouldn’t waste a minute with it.
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