Posted on 09/15/2020 6:43:32 AM PDT by nwrep
Note: This is a poll by Scott Rasmussen, separate from and not aligned with Rasmussen Reports. The poll uses a highly optimistic turnout model assuming a 36-37 R-D split, which is the most favorable Republican model of any pollsters, assuming near parity with Dems.
The key findings:
Out of 941 likely voters polled, 48% said they would vote for Biden, while 43% would choose Trump. The president has lost one percentage point since a similar poll roughly two weeks ago, while Biden's share of the likely vote has remained the same.
"GOP voters seem more engaged and more likely to turn out. However, Biden has a bigger lead within his party (82 points) than Trump does in his (75 points). Biden has a modest lead among Independents."
The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Rasmussen using a mixed-mode approach from September 10-12. The sample included 941 Likely Voters, defined as those who say they are “definitely going to vote” or “very likely to vote” and who know how they will vote. The Likely Voter sample was 36% Republican, 37% Democrat and 27% Independent.
If it’s an internet ad, most viewers will scroll or click past.
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Or stare blankly for 30 seconds until it’s over, having not registered a word.
How many declared Ds will vote for Trump?
If it were me, I’d think that maybe a D ballot would actually get counted, regardless of the *surprise* vote inside.
The dems wouldn’t be ramping up the cheating machine so much if they were confident.
After the election we’re going to remain a very divided country no matter who wins. (unfortunately)
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If they had confidence in their cheating, why threaten at all? Why keep the *give us your tax returns* in play? Why threaten impeachment 2.0?
I agree about division.
You’re just mistaken because the average idiot is uninformed and blames the current administration for whatever is happening.
Scared people don’t vote for the current administration.
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What if they fear the opponent? What if every aspect of what they fear is branded D?
I’m dealing with the underlying fear we’ll lose, for whatever reason. That makes me more adamant to vote for Trump and Rs down ticket.
I’m an elderly R woman. My husband is apolitical (hates all parties and has little tolerance for politics). He expects violence (not sure about fear, per se). He would take a flogging rather than vote for any D.
We are not the voters who need to be swayed by these ads. Everyone who is ignoring the negatives I’m pointing out is ignoring the fact that trump replaced his campaign director for financial reasons and this new director abandoned negative ads for the end of summer which was a terrible mistake. I’m not the only one saying this most of the Republican candidates are in an uproar over it.
..people do care about it because biden turned those stories into massive negative ad campaigns.
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That’s not an accurate connection.
People are exposed to it because Biden is being massively negative.
Doesn’t mean they care at all.
In modern society, there is a so much skepticism, massive negativity risks backlash. Trump walks a line between touting his successes, demeaning the opposition and highlighting the actions and results of the Ds. He _explains_ connections, rather than just dumping loads of manure.
People go to Trump's rallies to be entertained and on that front Biden can't compete. But lots of people are looking for something beyond entertainment value in a President.
I'm not saying Trump doesn't have substance but no one can argue he doesn't focus on the performance art aspect of his Presidency.
We're about to find out if his act is wearing thin.
...He went dark on tv...
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What are the demographics of TV watchers?
What percentage watches TV only?
I have watched online clips only for 12 years, for example. I know no one with a TV subscription and most have no access to OTA TV. (anecdote, not data)
Maybe the ROI for TV ads is low? Maybe the TV nets have made sure to run anti-Trump commentary before and after Trump ads. Maybe TV ads reach either 1) the already committed or 2) those incapable of making a difference.
Or perhaps Trump’s campaign is letting Biden commit himself,which provides fodder for the last 6 weeks after early voting begins. At that point, Biden can’t deny his own words already recorded and played incessantly.
I have admittedly small access to internals, but the limited internal info I have had so far has been in direct contradiction to the poll data.
While my local R candidates who are privy to that internal data are adamant that nothing is *in the bag*, their access so far indicates we have leads (varying size) in all the swing states.
As an aside, I had to change registration due to a move and it was not glitch-free. Township clerks are part-timers and I had to follow up repeatedly. Even then, there is a weird small bit of discrepancy in how my name is presented on the new voter roll. That should not be a problem in a small rural precinct given that my ID and photo and address will match perfectly.
We have no partisan registration in WI, but I am in a majority R precinct and District. The Party is still declaring us *essential*.
We aren’t also defining the opposition, however. The media is. It’s a two edged sword. Ads running nationally claiming Trump is going to eliminate Medicare and Social Security running unanswered is not a good thing. A significant number of people will in fact be influenced by them.
We have a campaign that has fallen down because someone came in claiming the finances weren’t strong enough and they had to cut back during the most vital period Which is late summer, when many a campaign has fallen behind by being defined by the opposition.
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Where are you?
In my Congressional District, the long-term lying, do-nothing, D puppet incumbent is silent while our R candidate is aggressively advertising on radio, which, IMHO, reaches more people than TV. There is no negative advertising against our candidate. There was one Never=Trumper ad on radio, run to the point of boredom, that was too subtle and tried to paint the Trump cuts to drug costs as *socialized medicine*. It’s now gone.
In the primary, we had a well-financed ringer running for the R slot who was outed and defeated with one targeted mailing.
I have received one lame piece of D literature. All it said was the candidate (already have forgotten his name) supported coverage for pre-existing conditions. Which Trump has taken care of.
I wonder if there are so many known unknowns this year that ALL candidates are pretty much flying blind.
My daughter will never know what true freedom is.
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Train her to become a partisan.
All ages. But on networks where ads are being run nationally, seniors, the age group most likely to vote, and data indicates President Trump has lost ground with these voters.
What percentage watches TV only?
Quite a few in the groups most likely to vote. Antenna sales have been on the increase in recent years.
I am looking for polls from bellweather counties in swing states. Vigo County, Indiana...Lake County, Ohio...
... the average idiot is uninformed...
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Only if you accept these polls.
I have been in a new area for about 10 weeks. I have had to interact with more tradesmen and store clerks than ever, just because of the move.
EVERY ONE of them has informed _me_ of all the things wrong with the country and that it is the D’s (who they call commies) fault. You see, I’m elderly, and they are afraid I will buy the D line, so they are dedicated to informing me of the truth.
I get compliments on my Trump sign in a neighborhood of Trump signs. My neighbors are to the right of Attila the Hun. They hail from the SE of WI and are livid at what has happened down there. One property here has no signage: a small farm with one cow and a few goats catty-corner across the road.
Includes mechanics, electricians, appliance repair people, gas company, phone company and TWO postal carriers, plus clerks in every hardware, big box and grocery store for 50 miles one direction and 85 miles another (both directions impinge on so-called D territory), along with the occasional person in line at same and 2 separate UHaul dealers separated by 85 miles.
I think my fellow countrymen and women are fairly savvy and these polls lie.
Long ago, an actuary gave me a rule-of-thumb: Take all statistical information and compare it to those you know and have dealt with along with other direct experience. If you can’t make a correlation within 5%, re-examine the premise.
Thanks for the support, Jane Long!
BTW, sorry I misspelled thread.
“...claiming Trump is going to eliminate Medicare and Social Security running unanswered...”
It is still quite a while to the election and there are the debates, and it is best to spring things on Biden live, like the Obama/Biden administration cut a trillion dollars from Medicare to pay for Obamacare.
And the elimination of Social Security “card “is played by the democrats every presidential election.
Sorry. Doesn’t wash.
I don’t care if Jesus Christ himself did the poll.
Pure garbage, just as ALL the polls except Baris and Trafalgar (who, BTW, both have Trump winning the EC pretty easily) were in 2016.
*They are NOT factoring the massive “shy Trump vote,” which is now at least double what it was in 2016. Baris and Cahaly BOTH say this, as does Democracy Institute (who also has Trump winning big).
*They are NOT factoring in the student vote shortfall that I wrote about 3 months ago, which will be between 1-2 MILLION nationally.
*They are NOT factoring in the sharp increases in black and Hispanics. This amounts to about 3 MILLION nationally.
*They are NOT factoring in the massive voter registration changes toward the Rs.
So, you can believe this garbage, but I’m telling you Trump will win every single 2016 state he carried by a bigger margin and will add MN, NH, and likely NV, and possibly NM and ME and VA. He will win the national popular vote.
It’s simply impossible for Demented Perv Biteme to lose 5 MILLION voters (see above) and still win the popular vote.
Total garbage. See my response above.
Demented Perv Biteme starts off DOWN 5 million voters before a single white voter switches his vote.
(BTW, FL Atlantic poll found indies breaking 4:1 for Trump. At 2:1 Trump would win 356 EVs and the pop vote. At 4:1 it would be Dukakis level stuff.)
It is not an issue of putter gone wimpy. What I am interested in is information and trends. I do not put stock in any single poll other than to look at trends if they are applicable. My point was that in this poll which surveys a consistent group of people (including a pool of likely voters) over time, we are not seeing Trump gain any significant ground or Biden lose any significant ground (not moving below 50%). This is not 2016 where we can hope for a big last minute push in Trump’s favor. The battlefield has changed and I would feel more confident if we started seeing some real movement. The conventions are over and still this polling group shows basically no change, including their perceptions of how their friends and neighbors will vote. Trump is not unknown to voters this time and common perceptions of his performance regarding Covid has hurt him, especially among seniors. Peaking in the last week of October may have worked in previous elections but this year there will be an awful lot of ballots already cast by that time. I do expect Trump to win but I felt he had a much better chance in 2016 and given the crazy state of the country right now, nothing is certain.
Seriously, this year's conventions were basically worthless. Wait for the debates, Biden has Dementia.
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