Posted on 09/10/2020 7:08:33 AM PDT by Red Badger
Nate Silver was the only Lefty pollster who gave a Trump chance in 2016.
NATE SILVER — “If you take the polls at face value right now—with Biden gaining/holding steady in AZ, WI, MI but losing ground in PA & FL, then Arizona is the tipping-point state right now, which could lead to the map shown here. This is a winning map for Biden, but it’s precarious.”
CA a question? No way, for the same reason that Virginia, Illinois, and New York will go for Harris/Biden. The big cities will go so overwhelmingly blue that the rest of the state will again be left in the dust.
“Nate Silver was the only Lefty pollster who gave a Trump chance in 2016. “
i don’t remember it that way at all ... as i recall nate silver was one of those who indicated that hillary had a 98% chance of winning ... though i suppose you say a 2% chance of winning is a chance ...
be for ever the optimist RR.... crazy has a tendency to turn the squeemish or prevent them from voting...
no one wants to be associated with actual communists.
I think in the next month or so the game plan should be for those conservatives lying to pollsters to suddenly stop lying and give their true opinions, especially in the 2 weeks before the election. The sudden swing in numbers towards Trump will devastate the dem’s. Plus I think to lie now may cause Trump to miscalculate and think he doesn’t have the support in key areas and withdraw from campaigning. We could cause him to lose when he didn’t have to. Better to remain “undecided and or say nothing”...and then let the pollsters have the truth in the last week before the election. The explosion of numbers for Trump at that point will have a massive psychological effect.
Don’t forget...the other side can lie too!
The Trump Campaign should throw some money into California and Nevada........................
From my vantage point Virginia is a lost cause. I don’t know why Trump campaign spends even a dime of ad money in Nova. It’s inundated with Marxist revolutionaries and coup plotters.
I do think that in some states that might be winnable but are still considered “lost” by Republicans, there is a sort of “they don’t care about us factor so why vote” attitude. Palin thought Michigan as winnable but McCain refused to allow her to go there and or to go there himself. Trump went there and won.
Nevada and Arizona might be retrievable and Trump might be able to help some candidates in California and make the Dems there nervous if he were to show up there.(even if he didn’t win California we might be able to claw back some house districts.)
Virginia isn’t going for trump. Too many federal workers in NoVa, we aren’t outraged by lockdowns because we didn’t lock down as much, and the republican party here is still in disarray, and could hardly field a candidate for the senate race. I’m just hoping we can at least hold our congressional delegation, and maybe kick out one of the freshmen democrats, but that is a stretch.
Add HI for Trump.
“VA and IL?”
Being in VA myself, I can tell you that the hard left turn by the state goobernment after that last election brought out multitudes to 2A rallies and such. Unfortunately in my experience 2A activist have not shown themselves to have a widespread tendency for critical thought electorally or long memories. I hope that the current gun grabbing legislation will turn the tide, but overall Virginia is ruled entirely by the I-95 corridor and NOVA Beltway. I would put VA at literally 50/50 at the moment. It sorta comes down to how many good ol’ boys can interrupt their huntin’ and beer drinkin’ to be bothered to vote. If I was optimistic that they would, I would put VA as a solid Trump victory.
If this is Silverman’s EC map then BiteMe is in deep kimchi! What are the chances Trump loses the delegate in Nebraska-0. Trump is going to lose Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Arizona? All he has to do is really flip one state to win on Silverman’s map.
Trump wins all the states he did the last time with NH, MN flipping, possibly NM and NV. Really-realy long shot, VA if the rural gun voters get out and the federal bureaucrats stay home.
Without that one electoral vote from Nebraska for Biden, it would be a 269-269 tie. If that were to happen, some Republican elector would retire a multi-millionaire (to somewhere in the Caribbean) after flipping to Biden.
I never said I was pinning my hopes on those two states. NV will not go Red unless there is a miracle in the works.
VA-—too close to DC for a Red outcome.
That would be nice, but I don't think it will happen. I remember in the Fraudoire-Rossi ripoff the classic 'Rat fraud. The 'Pub wins the election night count and even the first recount, but they keep "finding", and keep counting "found" votes, until the 'Rat "wins". The one precinct supposedly "found" supposedly "lost" ballots stuffed into a paper pouch taped to the side of a voting machine, almost all of them votes for Fraudoire. During one of the recounts there was a ballot with a write-in vote for "Christine Rossi", and the actual names were Dino Rossi (Pub) and Christine Gregoire ('Rat). The 'Rat-controlled recount board awarded the vote to Fraudoire. What was it for Fraudoire that year, something like a 130 vote margin out of almost three votes cast?
The same is true in NH. With the college kids possibly not voting illegally, it is going to be much tougher for the liberals to swing that state. We might even win the Senate seat.
Oh, WA is completely corrupt.
However, the current situation is I would say completely different.
that would be funny...
but possible. the lock downs in hawaii are causing a rebellion of sorts.
I think Minnesota is the tipping point, and Arizona is gravy.
Another thing: in this map, if the vote is close If we win NE-2, the result is 269 to 269 and the House decided (by state delegation).
Big time rebellion. My brother tells me people are extremely pissed off at the governor. There is a growing trump movement as well.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.