Posted on 03/17/2020 10:42:50 AM PDT by Perseverando
This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the current response to the pandemic that leave me concerned. It’s the longest post I’ve ever written.
For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to be “over hyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and post it everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting this at all.
WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE INFORMATION I AM SHARING:
As of 3/15/20 at 9 am PST this post has been shared over 50k times since it was posted 2 days ago. So a lot of people find value in the post and although it's a long read, I believe you will find this information valuable too.
For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also don’t post a bunch of bullshit or political or controversial stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting teams at some of the world's fastest growing companies such as Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have
(Excerpt) Read more at facebook.com ...
Me personally or a statement in general, editorially speaking?
I understand that hospitals can become overwhelmed - maybe the Dems should be outraged at them for not planning ahead and having a lot of extra “just in case” beds.
My daughter is an RN and I have friends who have worked with some big institutions - one was hired by the CDC to develop some standard sequencing for test and evaluations because so many doctors/medical centers use a mish-mash of protocols.
Another is a microbiologist,
They all have 2 similarities:
1. We need to take proper precautions but the panic has caused folks to take actions that are counterproductive,
2. The panic is irrational.
So many been showing models of the death rate - with varying data that has varied by 300% for the models, that nobody really knows enough to go into full panic mode...but here we are.
Some places already edicting mandatory lockdowns (while saying they have to release their prisoners - go figure) and each new drastic action fuels more drastic actions because if someone doesn’t take them and some extra folks die that MAY have been saved, the lawyers will have a field day.
At this stage, we cannot really be sure which actions are prudent and proper and which actions are merely knee-jerkers because someone else took some action.
Snicker...
On the other hand, Gateway Pundit is running a story claiming the Ethiopian head of WHO grossly overstated the mortality rate of COVID-19, leading to the panic. Problem is, it’s Gateway Pundit...
And the bigger problem is, we’re in the “fog of war” and it’s impossible to separate fact from bullshit from propaganda and intentional lies.
H1N1 was the Spanish flu. It mutated again. And it will be back. It was knocked down, and herd immunity beat it.
This is not new stuff.
I hardly knew to which post I should respond. But you M Y F R I E N D say it so well.
For years I have avoided crowds and been puzzled as to why anyone would voluntarily go to any crowded place like a sports arena or outdoor festival.
Actually the month of Corona might be my favorite month forever.
That's my basic attitude. Yes I think this overblown. Yes I think quarantine is a questionable strategy. But I can bite the bullet and follow this cautious strategy for awhile. But more than a few weeks would be, in my opinion, a serious mistake.
Generally speaking.
(Look at all the Dems blaming Trump for EVERYTHING over the virus on other social media sites...some are practically accusing him of hand-injeccting it into the people in Kirkland Washington.)
The NYC subway is still operating right now, even though it’s probably the most effective mechanism for conveying a pathogen anywhere in the country. That’s all I need to know about this idiocy. Close the restaurants but keel the subway running ... really?
‘The Christians among us might want to consider whether we worship God or at the altar of “experts” approved by big government.’
well, you’re perfectly free to just pray your infirmities away...
Use South Korea as the model to follow for the United States. Almost every trend is positive.
6,838
Currently Infected Patients
6,779 (99%)
in Mild Condition
59 (1%)
Serious or Critica
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/
Not disagreeing. But, capacity is way different than death rate.
People think getting a bed is going to help them. If it’s not a respirator equipped bed... the only good it will do is keep you from falling down onto the ground.
Folks understand death. They don’t understand triage.
We are all special, unique flowers. A lot of folks are going to find out how boringly average they are.
Thanks, thought so. But yeah, they’ll blame Trump for getting this virus under control and wiped out causing doctors to lose their jobs and hospitals to go out of business.
With the exception of maybe NYC and LA, hospitals are FAR from overrun. It is possible (and we will find out in a few weeks) that we are flattening the curve way too much and we need to let this thing run through because the wait and lack of activity is hurting us more.
Some people get the impression that this virus will pass, as if you can paint blood on your door and hunker down for a few weeks. That is wrong. It will lurk among us for the rest of our lives. We can only use proper hygiene to fend it off. Hopefully, it is seasonal and hopefully we will find a vaccine. But every one of us WILL be exposed to it and it may or may not find us as a host. We may develop an immunity or we may get it again and again. This is just part of the risk of living.
I actually don’t have a problem with that. As most viruses run their course in a couple weeks.
However, much more beyond that and it won’t matter one way or another.
Because our economy will be so screwed up it will be like obama got elected for a 3rd term.
[[We won’t know the exact number of cases until everybody is tested.]]
I’m not sure, but I think they are just guesstimating, based on rate of spread of known documented cases, population densities, etc- I’m sure there is some kind of math logic with allowable variables, and accepted spreads used to calculate- but i am not sure the author of this article factored all that in- like said, i aint good at math- so i don’t know- I do remember reading several years ago about how they go about guesstimating, to come up with reasonable acceptable results which factor in all kinds of stuff-
Something about unknown probabilities, i think? - a process to try to reduce uncertainty- There is observation of the known, plus calculations for the unknown that reduce as much as possible the errors due to the unknown- or something like that-
I have cows too...though.
Ha!!
ROFL! They might try just that!
You just confirmed it.............
I only know about the hospitals my wife and daughter work at—two different, same city.
They are full to an average end of flu season level. But both have longer than normal patients waiting for a bed.
The larger of the two has 1 confirmed and a dozen or so unconfirmed. They bed wait time is extending.
It won’t take a lot of cases to push them up to prime flu level.
Obviously mileage varies all over the place.
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