Posted on 02/05/2020 2:13:39 PM PST by janetjanet998
There are currently 27, 602 confirmed cases worldwide, including 564 fatalities.
“Child taken to hospital yesterday from March AB, tests negative returns to base”
Great news!
That 6’ remark is just crazy. Someone (CDC?) has put out the word that you don’t need masks. I don’t get that at all.
Yep - scary stuff. I recall one where it was on the third test over 5 or 6 days it finally came back positive.
(That’s always bothered me that they call something bad “positive”. I recall as a kid hearing about how some cancer test came back as “positive” and I thought “Well that’s great news!”)
There’s no comparison.
MERS was not a very “successful” virus, from the virus’ point of view, because it proved to be relatively easily contained. There were (relatively) few confirmed cases.
OTOH, the Chinese appear to be throwing everything they’ve got at 2019-nCoV, and they’ve only managed to slow it down a bit: The number of confirmed cases now appear to be doubling every 4-5 days — if the Chinese numbers are accurate. That’s an improvement, but no more seems to be forthcoming. Run it out a couple months, and assume as little as a 1% fatality rate for confirmed cases, and see what you have.
Don’t get me wrong, I still have “some” hope the virus spread can be further slowed, soon, but every day that goes by, it seems less likely. For one thing, the logistics just fall apart.
“MERS had a mortality rate of 34%.
Even if the high numbers were correct from that chart accidently posted by Tencent, this virus is still half the mortality rate of MERS. So, let’s not get too carried away.”
Yes.
MERS and SARS both had much higher mortality rates.
Mortality rate outside of China is slightly more than half a percent - one death in 191 verified cases.
Nope, Doc CDC says just 6 feet or so and “no protection” needed with those in quarantine and then they let the flight crew dine in a cafeteria on base in the presence of Marines on base. No worries, the flight crew were hermetically sealed in and never exposed to the evacuees in flight./s
But they transferred 4 of the evacuees to hospital for testing.
Do the math.
In China, we can roughly project:
Cn = Cp*2^N
Cp = Confirmed cases @ present.
N = # of time periods, Td that have passed in which the confirmed cases double. For example, Td looks to be fairly steady well AFTER the Chinese implemented their “unprecedented” control measures, at Td = 4 to 5 days. I went with 4.5 days as typical. If 45 days went by, N = 10.
Cn = number of confirmed cases after “N” time periods go by.
Eventually, Td will increase or become invalid either because:
1) cold and flu season runs out (although the Spanish Flu ominously bucked that pattern),
2) truly draconian measures are implemented or people increasingly self-isolate (tho’ this can have enormous negative repercussions and cause many more deaths),
3) remaining people are more resistant to the virus, or,
4) the virus runs low on people to infect. “3” may apply.
5) the virus’ contagious properties or symptoms mutate down and the “downward” version predominates further infections.
Countering the above and increasing the fatality rate is likely collapse of the health care system before 1, 3, or 4 occur. An increase in contagious qualities can also occur. Increases in severity of illness (care aside) are possible, but less likely.
Me - I take the middle ground.
Do the math.
I expect the US and other advanced countries to do better than China. Maybe we can even push Td out long enough to get us out of cold and flu season before Cn is large at all. Many other countries will do no better than China. Some may be worse.
Finally - Setting aside any Christian concern or compassion or prayers for life in other countries (it is ultimately utterly invalid to set such aside, IMO, but I’ll do it here for only a moment just for purpose of discussion)… Do you have any idea what a sudden swing into negative GDP for China, and the abrupt shut down of supply chains from China, would do to US?
I hope you’re wrong. At even 20% seriously infected, if no immunity after recovery, there will be few to care for the hospitalized, have the knowledge, or even want to. The wealthy/middle-class have been flying to anywherebuthere for a month. And the less educated aren’t capable of managing this, obviously. Poor chinese view cures as a matter of ‘lucky money’ paid; med staff being murdered and attacked are not uncommon according to the husband of a doctor that was attacked. I’d guess the heavy presence of armed military at hospitals is preventing this at the moment. Latest videos are showing armed patrols with dogs and paddy wagons going through neighborhoods threatening mayhem and hellfire on anyone stepping outside until told to do so.
But the uneducated masses will reach a psychotic stage sooner or later. They are already waiting hours for ambulances and body pickup. On top of that, you have ppl who would rather die at home than be quarantined - to them that’s being ‘disappeared’ and they’re terrified. And, in an ancestor-worship culture, out in the rural areas, they’re just going to bury their dead and not tell anyone because they don’t want them cremated. China will make it through but it will be because of emergency-expats returning to the ashes after the wildfire is extinguished along with a fair portion of the nation’s poor.
We got an email from one of our suppliers, Motion industries - they are saying the CNY has been extended until Feb 10 in the areas they source parts and whatnots from. They don’t anticipate any delays at the current time but that is fluid and dependent on stock on hand vs avail of mfg
here’s a related (video) article - using auto translate and arbitrary punctuation:
“Leading epidemiologists at the U of HongKong warned that the spread of of the novel corona virus in Asian mega cities outside mainland China may be impossible to contain. And may be sustained transmission chains where scientists believe could lead to self-sustaining outbreaks in cities all over the world. Now even in overseas places and outside of mainland China including it appears Thailand, Singapore, and perhaps Japan and Vietnam, Hong Kong, Macau, you are already seeing local cases with unknown sources so they never traveled not only to Wuhan and surrounding areas but not even to mainland China itself. So that is evidence to show they probably got infected locally...”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4T_Gs9xNjA
the hospitals allegedly have been taken over by military. So insiders can’t say anything because now it would be disclosing military secrets. Concern of level of patient care brought on by the appearance of the new Vulcan Mountain hospital setup Chinese are questioning locks on doors/bars on windows/armed guards (for ppl seriously ill). I liked the comment, ‘the bars are to keep the coronavirus out.’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MjHdzv0zTao
The epidemic is decelerating now using total China cases.
> The epidemic is decelerating now using total China cases.
I SURE hope you are correct but I’m skeptical ...
“...the hospitals allegedly have been taken over by military...” - Blueplum
“The epidemic is decelerating now using total China cases.” - ifinnegan
Just like a car keeps moving forward even when decelerating, the increase in cases isn’t stopping but the rate of increase has lessened and trending down but it’s slight.
That’s in all China. Wuhan may be decelerating faster whereas other regions may be accelerating, I’m not sure.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0015100
Results found that flu virus can spread far in a room and stay suspended for a long time. However, those particles are less that about 4 microns in size. A dust mask N95 paper or an actual respirator with filter only blocks stuff 3 microns in size and above.
It would be better to have the CDC say “You don’t need masks, because the don’t work”.
HOWEVER. The percentage of the really small stuff in the air is less than the bigger stuff. The viability of the small stuff in air is not fully understood from my quick reading of it. Some people show that it isn’t viable, others have.
If it gets bad here and I need to go out in public, I’ll wear a mask. It would be just my luck to be walking 6 feet behind someone and they turn around and cough right at me. (And by that time I’m 5.5 feet from them!)
Oh - and they don’t even need to cough - just breathing puts out the flu virus. And oddly, even by someone that doesn’t “have” the flu still will have some of the virus in their breath!
CDC: Today the test kits will start shipping to the over 100 US public health labs, each of these labs is required to perform international verification for CLIAA compliance prior to reporting out. This process is expected to take a few days. Initially 200 test kits will be distributed to US domestic laboratories and another 200 will be distributed to selected international laboratories. Each test kit can perform 700 to 800 patient samples. What that means is that by the start of next week, we expect there to be much enhanced capacity for laboratory testing closer to our patients.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0205-coronavirus-update.html
A Chinese national received the following on their cellphone. These are allegedly the new orders that come from the city that comes from central govt (not verbatim):
1. Every new arrival to the village and company has to report to village office immediately. 2. Every company or village has to control access - id and temp in and out. Outside people can’t go inside. 3. Masks in public places required. One family member every two days can go out for food. Only sick or essential workers excepted. 4. No groups, no visiting, wear mask and temp checks at markets, wet markets. All public places closed. All deliveries no touching (leave/pick up at gate) 5. Sick cannot go out. 6. Turn off all building central heat/air - any building. 7. No public shops will open except essential places (grocery) 8. No weddings/funerals 9. Sick have to report they’re sick immediately - no hiding or late to report. 10. Pharm who sells fever or cough medicine has to immediately report name and id of any person buying. 11. Landlords renting to Wuhan residents must tell them not come back. 12. Every citizen has to follow the rules and not make up ‘fake’ news. Severe consequences for violating the rules.
the notice above most likely applies to the following cities:
Haerbin, Linyi, Zhengzhou, Xuzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Ningbo, Leqing, Fuzhou - these are 300 to 1500 miles from Wuhan
at abt 1min in:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilfg-vz4mjI
Hangzhou city of 9 million- 151 confirmed - roads closed and public transport suspended
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vG-ffllWMZE
Beijing also under ‘the rules’ - 212 confirmed; 1 death
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9mlyidmFSM
Patient dies of an UNDETERMINED strain of coronavirus..
https://mobile.twitter.com/ABSCBNNews/status/1225343708637253632
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