“MERS had a mortality rate of 34%.
Even if the high numbers were correct from that chart accidently posted by Tencent, this virus is still half the mortality rate of MERS. So, let’s not get too carried away.”
Yes.
MERS and SARS both had much higher mortality rates.
Mortality rate outside of China is slightly more than half a percent - one death in 191 verified cases.
Do the math.
In China, we can roughly project:
Cn = Cp*2^N
Cp = Confirmed cases @ present.
N = # of time periods, Td that have passed in which the confirmed cases double. For example, Td looks to be fairly steady well AFTER the Chinese implemented their “unprecedented” control measures, at Td = 4 to 5 days. I went with 4.5 days as typical. If 45 days went by, N = 10.
Cn = number of confirmed cases after “N” time periods go by.
Eventually, Td will increase or become invalid either because:
1) cold and flu season runs out (although the Spanish Flu ominously bucked that pattern),
2) truly draconian measures are implemented or people increasingly self-isolate (tho’ this can have enormous negative repercussions and cause many more deaths),
3) remaining people are more resistant to the virus, or,
4) the virus runs low on people to infect. “3” may apply.
5) the virus’ contagious properties or symptoms mutate down and the “downward” version predominates further infections.
Countering the above and increasing the fatality rate is likely collapse of the health care system before 1, 3, or 4 occur. An increase in contagious qualities can also occur. Increases in severity of illness (care aside) are possible, but less likely.
Me - I take the middle ground.
Do the math.
I expect the US and other advanced countries to do better than China. Maybe we can even push Td out long enough to get us out of cold and flu season before Cn is large at all. Many other countries will do no better than China. Some may be worse.
Finally - Setting aside any Christian concern or compassion or prayers for life in other countries (it is ultimately utterly invalid to set such aside, IMO, but I’ll do it here for only a moment just for purpose of discussion)… Do you have any idea what a sudden swing into negative GDP for China, and the abrupt shut down of supply chains from China, would do to US?
For now, that’s a nice hook upon which to hang logic.
However...
What will happen if the number of cases overwhelm the medical system, there are lines at the ER and many simply are told by ignorant friends; “it’s just the flu” and don’t get tested yet infect many others?
This is what’s happening in China now after it ramped up quickly. One cannot, in my estimation operate on the operational constant that what we see now is what we’ll see in two months.
Hope for the best but prepare for the worse.
The SW Household is slightly
ahead of the curve in preparing for a shelter in the house scenario and fenced yard for 4-6 months. More beans and rice will be bought today at lunch as we now have underreported potential case in South Florida.
Actually, SARS has a little less than 1/2 the mortality rate of MERS. And if the figures ‘accidently’ posted by Tencent are real, then 2019nCoV has a mortality rate in China of about 16%, which is higher than it was for SARS.
If we believe the figures we’re being told by the Chinese (and who does?), then the mortality rate there is about 2%.
Though it does seem like the mortality rate is directly tied to the Chinese medical system being overwhelemed -especially in Wuhan - and their lack of warning to the population and the surrounding provinces, rather than the disease itself when medically treated promptly.