Do the math.
In China, we can roughly project:
Cn = Cp*2^N
Cp = Confirmed cases @ present.
N = # of time periods, Td that have passed in which the confirmed cases double. For example, Td looks to be fairly steady well AFTER the Chinese implemented their “unprecedented” control measures, at Td = 4 to 5 days. I went with 4.5 days as typical. If 45 days went by, N = 10.
Cn = number of confirmed cases after “N” time periods go by.
Eventually, Td will increase or become invalid either because:
1) cold and flu season runs out (although the Spanish Flu ominously bucked that pattern),
2) truly draconian measures are implemented or people increasingly self-isolate (tho’ this can have enormous negative repercussions and cause many more deaths),
3) remaining people are more resistant to the virus, or,
4) the virus runs low on people to infect. “3” may apply.
5) the virus’ contagious properties or symptoms mutate down and the “downward” version predominates further infections.
Countering the above and increasing the fatality rate is likely collapse of the health care system before 1, 3, or 4 occur. An increase in contagious qualities can also occur. Increases in severity of illness (care aside) are possible, but less likely.
Me - I take the middle ground.
Do the math.
I expect the US and other advanced countries to do better than China. Maybe we can even push Td out long enough to get us out of cold and flu season before Cn is large at all. Many other countries will do no better than China. Some may be worse.
Finally - Setting aside any Christian concern or compassion or prayers for life in other countries (it is ultimately utterly invalid to set such aside, IMO, but I’ll do it here for only a moment just for purpose of discussion)… Do you have any idea what a sudden swing into negative GDP for China, and the abrupt shut down of supply chains from China, would do to US?
The epidemic is decelerating now using total China cases.