Posted on 11/06/2018 4:50:16 AM PST by LS
Whatever happens, please do NOT be goaded into hysteria by Drudge or ANY sources (including me) saying "this is happening" or "that is happening," or above all . . .
"EXIT POLLS SHOW . . . "
Let me remind some of you newer Freepers about election day 2004.
Everything came down to OH. If George W. Bush won OH, he won the election. If Lurch (John Kerry) won it, he would win.
I was working for the Bush campaign in Dayton, OH as a "Poll flusher." Perhaps now technology has mitigated this, but at that time, teams would fan out to key polling places at 10:00 am and 4:00 pm and see how many of your party in that precinct had voted already, then send out walkers or make calls to get those turned out who hadn't already voted.
It just so happened that my precinct was one of the key bellwether precincts in all of OH. However the precinct I was flushing went, so went OH, and so went the election. It's one of those that the networks use to "call" a state with only 1% of the vote in.
10:00 was normal, maybe high for Repubilcans. But I got home and saw Drudge headlines screaming about exit polls, how Bush was losing badly. Well, I hadn't seen that but who knows? Freepers were jumping out of buildings.
At 4:00 though, I found that 90% of Rs had already voted. We were told by Rove that if Rs just voted in OH, we'd win because of the voter registration advantage. I knew if, before work was even over for most people, 90% of Rs had voted we would easily hit 100% in this key precinct. The Ds couldn't win.
I posted my #s then got back to the computer and tried to calm people that in fact we'd won the election despite the exit polls. Bush won by 117,000---Trump won FL in 2016 by 113,000.
Moral of the story: DO NOT be intimidated or frightened by ANYTHING you see on the news or or Drudge. In in MT, in IN, and in AZ, we will win if Rs turn out. Indies in these states would have to break 2:1 against the R for the D to win. FL is a different story with its D-heavy registration, but over and over we've shown Rs can win that state just by turning out.
No one knows about the House. My prediction is we hold by as few as five and as many as fifteen seats. But these are individual races with really, really bad polling and it's extremely doubtful that the "news" is going to know what's going on til the votes are counted. (Remember 2016, where Trump had a very late lead in VA and NH? Many here knew that Northern VA was coming in and would change that, but no one knew a bunch of MA fraudsters were going to NH to vote!
There will be no reliable House numbers from precincts until most of them are closed, esp. in more rural areas.
As with 2016, if you watch the fake news, remember if there is a D victory, they will call it at 8:01. If the evidence suggests that Ds have won key "flip" districts like VA5, VA10, FL26, FL27, NY19, NY22 (and they need almost all of them), they will post it immediately.
My guess is if you don't know who won the House and you go to bed, the Rs probably held.
Now, as it was in 2016, this is in God's hands. Let's let Him do His work. We don't always know the twists and turns of His plans.
Good post.
Good place for an ad!!
Ct5, 6% loss.
I expect defeat in CT gov. Maybe the voters will surprise me
Thanks.
On one of the Fox programs - Hannity, Carlson, Ingragam or maybe Levin, they showed some instant response tracking polls like what Frank Luntz does.
As they played various ads, quotes, etc., it would show the red line spiking and the blue line dipping, or visa versa.
Anyway, there was also a line for independents, and it followed whichever way the red line went.
I took that as an indication that independants have a lot more in common with Republicans in this election cycle.
Am I right to feel encouraged by that?
Handy-Dandy Poll Closing Time List
(times shown are Eastern Time Zone)
(**=multiple time zones)
Total breakdown per voting closing block.
Rep Dem Vac
7:00
Georgia 10 4 0
Indiana ** 7 2 0
Kentucky ** 5 1 0
South Carolina 6 1 0
Vermont 0 1 0
Virginia 7 4 0
subtotal 35 13 0 48
7:30
North Carolina 10 3 0
Ohio 12 4 0
West Virginia 2 0 1
subtotal 24 7 1 32
running 59 20 1
8:00
Alabama 6 1 0
Connecticut 0 5 0
Delaware 0 1 0
Florida ** 15 11 1
Illinois 7 11 0
Maine 1 1 0
Maryland 1 7 0
Massachusetts 0 9 0
Mississippi 3 1 0
Missouri 6 2 0
New Hampshire ** 0 2 0
New Jersey 5 7 0
Oklahoma 4 0 1
Pennsylvania 10 6 2
Rhode Island 0 2 0
Tennessee 7 2 0
subtotal 65 68 4 137
running 124 88 5
8:30
Arkansas 4 0 0 4
running 128 88 5
9:00
Arizona 5 4 0
Colorado 4 3 0
Kansas ** 4 0 0
Louisiana 5 1 0
Michigan ** 9 4 1
Minnesota 3 5 0
Nebraska 3 0 0
New Mexico 1 2 0
New York 9 17 1
North Dakota ** 1 0 0
South Dakota ** 1 0 0
Texas ** 25 11 0
Wisconsin 5 3 0
Wyoming 1 0 0
subtotal 76 50 2 128
running 204 138 7
10:00
Iowa 3 1 0
Montana 1 0 0
Nevada 1 3 0
Utah 4 0 0
subtotal 9 4 0 13
running 213 142 7
11:00
California 14 39 0
Hawaii 0 2 0
Idaho ** 2 0 0
Oregon ** 1 4 0
Washington 4 6 0
subtotal 21 51 0 72
running 234 193 7
1:00 AM
Alaska ** 1 0 0 1
running 235 193 7 435
I will be posting this in its own thread so that people can have it to see. We will know a LOT about how things are going if anything changes in blocks.
Refer back to previous post
Turnout was 7400. Must be a record
Also, usually goes slightly Dem. But GOP won easily. Blue collar white town.
So yes, all that extra silent Trump crowd came out.
There are just too many white wealthy liberal suburbs in this state
Was Stephanowski your choice in the primary?
County results are in interesting. Hartford was worst for Steph and the biggest margin but not highest% for Lamont cause third party got 6% there, what is he an ex-RINO?
Fairfield gave the highest % to Lamont. Fairfield is more dem than the state now, Malloy won it last time but by a hair.
Steph won NEW HAVEN County, 33K more votes than Foley in 14 and Lamont got fewer votes than Malloy. Lost in New London (also lost in 2014, was a 2010 win for Foley)
I was for Herbst in primary
Hartford Cnty is home of Oz
Fairfield city is Neds home
New haven cnty is Stefs home
Markleys grassroots is based in new haven County
Plus Southington n Berlin.
Maybe the Markley team gets credit for the win in Plainville
Now we can say that Stef was a Lemon.
His campaign did well on identity ing and getting his vote out. But the candidate had little appeal. A decent candidate would have won by 5%
A guy who never did anything political before decided to run for gov ... Now he’s through and won’t be heard from again.
A comedy. CT is a comedy
3rd party OZ is a former Republican, but he took votes from ned
Sounds like Bruce Rauner, except he won, the first time.
Political career
Prior to his 2014 run for Illinois governor, Rauner served as an advisor to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel.
Meh. I think he was more of a “donor” to Rahmbo. If you give enough money they will at least pretend to listen to your “advice”.
But donating a crapload is a political action in and of itself, so you are correct that the comparison is not precise.
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