Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
I read somewhere that that video is of an entirely different event in a different place.
It has been said that deep warm water fuels hurricanes more than shallow warm water. How shallow does the water have to be to be considered "shallow" in this context?
Much of the storm is currently over the Puerto Rico Trench and, in a few hours, will pass over the Milwaukee Deep—more then five miles deep and the deepest point in the Atlantic Ocean. It will then shortly start going over the Bahama Banks, much of which is only tens of feet deep. Is this shallow enough to affect the amount water heat available to power the storm? Or, if stirred up, reduce the water heat available for the next storm?
I'm just.. While I think that Sheriff Judd has the best interests at heart, the concept that I'd have to go through a background check to go to a shelter is, well, I had a hard enough time watching officers search people and their things in Houston. This is taking it to a whole new level, in my opinion.
I mean, I understand there's a price of admission for availing yourself in a public shelter, but it shouldn't come with the price tag of an utter surrender of all your rights as a citizen.
That was in China, not Saint Martin.
Same video here....
https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=6fd_1499698550
storm is starting to weaken....my prediction...barely a cat 3 at landfall in Florida...
Joe Bastardi says Irma should hit its lowest pressure on Saturday.
I have time for sceptics...”little” and “none”.
:-)
i think what ever is making it stop and turn so sharp will weaken Irma..hurricanes this intense create their own environment which usually weakens them..Katrina was collapsing rapidly just before landfall...she drew in dry air from a stalled front in Texas and was a cat 3 at landfall...still caused tremendous damage.
What would cause it to head northeast instead of just blowing straight into the Gulf?
Perhaps it has a thing for Maine lobsters... I certainly do.
might pose more of a Carolina threat if the trend continues....while the amount of time that Irma has remained a cat 5 is remarkable, the storm was just too far away too maintain that before hitting the US Coastline, thank god. Media has gone overboard as usual...Hurricane Camille will retain her title as the most powerful single storm to ever strike the United States mainland...everything just came together perfectly on August 17th,1969...
That will have to suffice for the windspeed skeptics. Surge takes walls, maybe leaves roof on stilts.
Wind takes roofs maybe leaves walls.
My friend in Puerto Rico says her power is out and the tap water is cutoff, but everyone around her is fine and many buildings survived.
My rough rule of thumb...max surge from where left eyewall makes landfall, over to 1.5 to 2 eye diameters right of right eyewall’s landfall.
Parking space 46B, requests one soft pillow, coupla them fluffy blankets, and two, sunny side ups, one side of bacon around 7a.
hey really are scaring people to death down here...
the only place for good forecasting is WeatherBell.com
It is a premium site but the Daily Update and Saturday summary are free..
Joe had Irma going into the Outer banks 10 days ago..
He said it would turn North the only question 10 days ago was where
Gulf
Center of Florida
East Coast of Florida
This morning 90% it would not go up the gulf..
Has it pretty much like the National Hurricane center now
They should have waited longer before scaring everybody
Over here in SWF a lot of people started putting up hurricane shutters to early
I will see what Joe has to say tomorrow..
Looks to me like the East Coast..there starting to evacuate low lying areas
They do not want a repeat of Rita
Where is the link to the daily update? I got to it with a hurricane upgrade banner across the top of the website; however, saw no other link.
His fee is $240/year for personal subscription...If I lived on coast or had farm, I think it would be worth it.
Right now with that storm out in the Gulf trying to make it’s mind up too, Florida is looking like a hurricane sandwich.
Just grazing Fla, but open ocean, instead of alongside Cuba, all the way in.
“...average error 200 miles...”
An average error looks like a pretty great deal about now.
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