Skip to comments.Hurricane Irma Live Thread
Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
I think the whole Gulf of Mexico needs to ignore the spaghetti and assume the worst.
Latest tracks look like a replay of Matthew. Fabulous news for those of us here in NE Florida.
Thanks for the thread :-)
Too early to know where Irma will make US landfall.
This is a good source.
Looks like it’s projected to cut through FL and Cuba and head into the Gulf. God forbid if Houston or NOLA gets hit again.
Thanks for the weatherbell link.
Daily Update..Joe is as good as anyone...
Getting ready in case it heads for SW Florida..been a long time with out one here in Florida..
Hell of a thing when you hope it goes somewhere else..
Had three in a row back when Charlie came through
Keep us posted of San Juan observations when you can. Hopefully, Irma will quickly skirt N of PR.
from the other thread
Upper level outflow is EXCELLENT...water temps 86-88F ahead of it..warm water is very Deep too..no dry air around
The storm will grow in size too....
At this time worst case is being predicted by the models staying offshore of Cuba and then taking a SHARP north turn .....this would put the major cities on the east coast in the front eye wall ...
nightmare scenario .....Im sure the path will change but very disturbing..this better go east and stay just offshore like Mathew did last year
if the storm came into FL like an Andrew from due east the right the eye wall would only affect a very small portion as it moves inland ...but because of the shape of the FL coastline and the projected path alot more area would get the max winds
I thought hurricane Floyd might do this back in 1999(?) but it turned east of FL
the NWS will be launching weather balloons every 6 hours instead of 12 hours over much of the plains and midwest to get more data from the upstream stations.
Also, NOAA will be flying missions to collect data around the hurricane and west of it. This extra data will be put into the models
of course the USAF will have the HH aircraft in there too
Folks in FL are understandably anxious about this one.
Tonight’s 8 pm advisory will include model updates based on data gathered midday over the central US. That area is important for an upper level trough forming which will move offshore later in the week and steer the storm.
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