Media Report: 25% of Current Florida Primary Ballots Never Voted Before, EVER…

The Last Refuge ^ | August 28, 2016 | sundance

[dontreadthis]

[…] We’re in unprecedented, unchartered territory,” said Florida Chamber president and CEO Mark Wilson. “Nobody’s been polling these people, nobody’s been marketing to these people.”….

The “Monster Vote“ is the name attributed to the largest voting bloc in U.S. history. The voters who have/had given up on the political process because it seemed futile to vote for a rigged system where nothing ever changes. –Outlined Here–

However, we first noted the surfacing of the Monster Vote in relation to the political outsider Donald Trump toward the end of 2015. It was, and is, a rather controversial theorem because the voting bloc would make all media polling completely irrelevant.

Throughout the latter part of 2015 and into the first quarter of 2016 we put our research antenna on high alert to see if the indications were real. We paid a statistician to model the data we collected. We made predictions which, if the bloc was accurate, would stun the professional political class.

Trump rally illinois 4

Tracking social media, geographic “non-media polling” and alternate media matrices led us to believe Trump would dominate in the presidential primary. The predictions modeled the results with uncanny accuracy. Gobsmacking accuracy.

A few months later the New York Times began quietly evolving it’s electoral modeling. Washington Post political writer Bob Costa began talking about something that he too was noticing which tracked with our own research. Large numbers of the electorate who never engaged in the political process before were becoming increasingly visible.

Throughout this entire year there have been indications the “Monster Vote” is very real, but you have to look carefully to see them – and, obviously, you must inoculate yourself from conformational bias. 400,000 donations to Trump less than $200 in June was one such example. The social media app Zip App is yet another. 2,000,000 views of an innocuous Trump facebook video within 24 hours is another.

It’s a tenuous discussion because everyone wants to belittle anyone talking about it (looking at you Rush Limbaugh), and simultaneously those holding Cold Anger intensity don’t talk about it – everyone just goes about their business, yet everyone seems to know.

Well, the left-leaning Tampa Bay Times has just dropped a big bit of data which seems to also confirm the existence of this phenomenon:

“More than 25% of the inbound mail-in or absentee ballots in the upcoming primary, have NEVER VOTED BEFORE“:…

[…] “This is huge,” said Marian Johnson, senior vice president of political strategy for the Florida Chamber and one of the foremost experts on Florida campaigns and politics. “I can envision election night when the votes are counted that certain people win that nobody thought had a chance, and that being attributed to this trend.”

As of Thursday morning, more than 855,000 primary ballots had been cast by mail. More than a quarter of those votes came from Floridians who had not voted in the last four primaries and another 20 percent from people who voted in just one of the last four primaries.

In other words, these are not “likely voters” surveyed by most pollsters or targeted by sophisticated political campaigns. The trend applies to Democrats and Republicans alike and across the state, said Johnson, who was shocked when she first spotted the trend developing weeks ago.

“The first thing I did was go back to my data people and said, ‘Are you sure you ran this right?’ “

They had. The data crunchers looked at who requested mail ballots and who is returning them, and categorized each voter by a zero, one, two, three or four — depending on how many of the last four primaries they voted in.

[…] We’re in unprecedented, unchartered territory,” said Florida Chamber president and CEO Mark Wilson. “Nobody’s been polling these people, nobody’s been marketing to these people.” (read more)

florida coc trump poll♦ Remember, even in honest scientific polling – the poll methodologies are based on “assumptions”, or inputs into the collected poll samples in order to make them representative of the anticipated turnout.

♦ Thanks to Donald Trump, historic turnout trends are obsolete. Additionally, historic demographics and party affiliations are also obsolete. As a consequence any poll data that is relying on obsolete sample methodology is going to be significantly inaccurate.

If the current ballot data reported in Florida (which does indeed line up with the changes in the Florida voter data-base) extends even remotely similar to the other states throughout the nation, the prior prediction graphic below might even be understated:

[InterceptPoint]

As of Thursday morning, more than 855,000 primary ballots had been cast by mail. More than a quarter of those votes came from Floridians who had not voted in the last four primaries and another 20 percent from people who voted in just one of the last four primaries.

This is in Florida.

It seems to me that on Tuesday evening we will have either a verification of the Monster Vote Theory or it's refutation. Surely there are some Trump supporting candidates who will surprisingly benefit from the surge in (we hope) New Trump Voters.

Or possibly a large majority voting Republican - much higher percentage than expected.

There must be some way to measure the impact of the new voters.

Hoping for some smart Freeper input on this possibility.

[manc]

My wife and I, and my son has not been polled for over 4 years, and none of our neighbors have here either.. Which would explain how I never see a Clinton sign or sticker or know of anyone voting for her, and yet she is a head in the polls.

[manc]

see post 22

[Carry me back]

Trump in a landslide, nation wide.

[entropy12]

And the other 100 million dead Floridians with rise from the ashes to vote for crooked Hillary.

[11th_VA]

And Independents are breaking strongly for Trump ...

[2nd Amendment]

I honestly believe the Clinton crime family would stop at nothing to steal this election. In fact Hillary and her media syncophants already act like she has it in the bag. If you will sell your State Dept. position for cash and set up illegal email servers plus the myriads of crimes in her past You’ll do anything. I’d have a 24 hour security detail around Julian Assange.

[hoosiermama]

Find out from Pam Bondi if any of these voting machines are used in the state! This is NOT a hoax. I witnessed ours being tested just before we decertified the system in Indiana

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t75xvZ3osFg&feature=youtu.be

[proust]

Why does it keep saying primary ballots? primaries are over.

[manc]

thanks

[ameribbean expat]

Watch the Marco Rubio senate primary. If there’s a Trump surge in Florida, it will show up there.

[Right-wing Librarian]

Can you explain what you mean?

I 100000% support Donald Trump and plan to vote for him.

I Early Voted in the FL primary, but for Carlos Beruff, NOT Rubio.

[struggle]

FL Primaries Breakdown:

Trump 1.1M
Rubio 640K
Cruz & Others 650K+
Republicans -> 2.4M (gain of almost 700K voters from 2008 - 1.7M)

Hill 1.1M
Bern 560K
Dems -> 1.7M (static from 2008 - 1.7M)

I think we know where the secret voters are...

[COUNTrecount]

Especially the dead ones voting before the early bird.

[ExTexasRedhead]

This video must be forwarded to everyone on your email list(s). I sent it to everyone about two weeks ago!!!

[ameribbean expat]

I used Rubio’s name because the non-Floridians probably wouldn’t have recognized Beruff. But you are correct, and what I was trying to say was a high GOP turnout that goes against Rubio is a net positive for Trump in November’s general.

[Caipirabob]

Sounds like rats making overtime at the graveyard.

[themidnightskulker]

TRUMPNADO !

[Right-wing Librarian]

Ah, now I understand. You make a very good observation. And we shall find out soon! Thanks, AE.

[dontreadthis]

nice stats