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The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll
USC Dornsife ^ | August 13, 2016

Posted on 08/13/2016 4:29:42 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist

These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week.

(Excerpt) Read more at cesrusc.org ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; clinton; election; polls; trump
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Crook 45.7, Trump 42.2
1 posted on 08/13/2016 4:29:42 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: BlueStateRightist

Big jump for Hillary today. Something changed in this poll. Too big a jump for one day in a moving poll.

Seems to me.


2 posted on 08/13/2016 4:37:38 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (Ted, you should have endorsed. Big mistake.)
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To: InterceptPoint

Bad news but will balance out when new bad stuff about the felon comes out.


3 posted on 08/13/2016 4:41:18 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: InterceptPoint

Like you said, there must be some change in methodology or just a really bad sample.


4 posted on 08/13/2016 4:42:59 AM PDT by mrs9x
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He needs to spend money on ads. If Trump loses, I’m not voting for the Republicans again.


5 posted on 08/13/2016 4:44:48 AM PDT by TakebackGOP
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To: BlueStateRightist

I keep saying don’t worry but I think I’m starting to worry!


6 posted on 08/13/2016 4:46:34 AM PDT by GizzyGirl
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To: mrs9x

IIRC, this poll uses the same pool of people, forever. Some people change their minds, which is why the number shift. Each day, one seventh of the pool is polled.


7 posted on 08/13/2016 4:47:00 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: mrs9x

Apparently this poll eliminates “bad sampling” by polling the same people every day.


8 posted on 08/13/2016 4:47:18 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist (Government is best which governs least.)
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To: InterceptPoint

Perhaps. Let’s assume at a national level, PIAPS is ahead.

Very easy to overload a national poll with liberals from CA and NY.

I’ve been seeing the Longroom.com poll data which calculates bias for either side and washes it out.

That site has been showing Trump with a slight lead.

Interesting though in that the site has been down with a “server error” for the past two days. A bit suspicious to me.


9 posted on 08/13/2016 4:48:59 AM PDT by HombreSecreto (New Tagline: TRUMP is the MOCKINGJAY! Defeat the Capitol!)
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To: mrs9x

http://cesrusc.org/election/

Methodology is described in here. The size of the pool is being increased gradually. That could be a source of some of the shift.


10 posted on 08/13/2016 4:53:02 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: InterceptPoint

The internals have been showing a steady decline for Trump all week. If you go to the page with the tracking chart and select details in the upper right you can check the daily raw totals. He’s had a bad week. I’m the biggest Trump apologist and supporter around, but facts are the media just has been crucifying him the last two weeks. The drop is due solely to the 2A dust up which was seen also in the CVoter poll yesterday. It should clear over the next few days, but I hope Trump realizes the array of forces aligned against him.


11 posted on 08/13/2016 4:53:23 AM PDT by usafa92 (Trump 2016 - Destroying the GOPe while Making America Great Again!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Correct - Rolling average - One day 3 point jump means a 21 point difference on a single day add new take out old. That does not happen unless there is fooling with the numbers


12 posted on 08/13/2016 4:56:41 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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To: usafa92

I haven’t voted since 2000. My 40 year old brother has not ever voted. Nobody is polling us. Their is no way to accurately poll this election. So many of us who gave up voting or have never voted are coming out because of Trump. None of these people are being polled.


13 posted on 08/13/2016 4:57:47 AM PDT by Crash Fistfight
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To: GizzyGirl

I think it’ll be alright. The Trump campaign is opening offices in battleground states now. A ground game will help a great deal.
I’m sure all these polls are looking at the 2012 voter universe. Millions of 2012 ‘non-voters’ could vote for Trump. They need to be identified then talked to on a personal level by volunteers. So there’s a great opportunity for big victory.


14 posted on 08/13/2016 5:02:26 AM PDT by mainerforglobalwarming
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To: InterceptPoint

Polls seem to be falling apart for Trump. Still, he is on message and drawing large crowds. Saw his Erie, PA rally yesterday. Trump was great.

The brutal media attacks have been run 24/7 and may be affecting some of the marginal Trump supporters. Since the media is controlled by the left it is difficult to counteract.

What I saw in the Erie, PA rally was Trump clearly stating his main issues and how Hillary differs. No teleprompter, the crowd ate it up; Trump signed autographs, “worked the line,” — the huge audience was gaga.

Trump closed the deal urging the audience to vote and that with wins in PA, Ohio, and Florida, “we win, game over for Hillary.”

Quite a different picture than painted by the media.


15 posted on 08/13/2016 5:02:52 AM PDT by Memphis Moe (Ww)
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To: Cboldt

FWIW, increased poll size should lead to greater accuracy.


16 posted on 08/13/2016 5:05:10 AM PDT by grania
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To: mrs9x
I just looked at some internal data. The size of the pool has increased between 8/11 (N=2216) to 8/12 (N=2251), which is insignificant.

Age groups 18-24, and 65+ showed similar upticks for Clinton. Maybe the economy speech jazzed them. Younger ones were promised free college and green energy and protect the environment with regulations. I don't recall the freebees promised to the older generation. Freebees is a tried and true way to get support.

17 posted on 08/13/2016 5:05:27 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: grania
-- FWIW, increased poll size should lead to greater accuracy. --

Technically, better repeatability. Accuracy is a function of how well the sample reflects the population as a whole. The confidence interval calculation assumes the sample is random.

18 posted on 08/13/2016 5:07:33 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: Crash Fistfight

Exactly. That issue could exacerbate when the polls shift to Likely Voters.

People who haven’t voted or haven’t voted in a while won’t get captured - a hidden Trump vote.

If you see LV polls showing Trump in the lead, watch for the Dems and MSM to go bat$##+ crazy.


19 posted on 08/13/2016 5:07:35 AM PDT by HombreSecreto (New Tagline: TRUMP is the MOCKINGJAY! Defeat the Capitol!)
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To: Cboldt

Some people will believe anything, one guy told me two days ago that he is planning to vote for Hillary because he is looking for her husband to run things. I let him know he needs to look again. Bill is falling apart faster than Hillary, not to mention that he was a lousy president when he was in office.


20 posted on 08/13/2016 5:13:44 AM PDT by RipSawyer (Racism is racism, regardless of the race of the racist.)
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