Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.
If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:
Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.
Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.
Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.
It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.
If Trump gets 1237, he will have won it fair and square, and I would be 100% opposed to any attempt to deny him the nomination.
An old tale. The Generals win the war only to have the snake-in-the-grass pols toss it away. And so it is again. The GOPe and Cruz and his allies and sycophants are snakes.
My apologies to real snakes.
Only in a degraded and cowardly society are the rule benders and parliamentarians who “win” by gaming the system tolerated. The scum who create nothing but only invent sly systems to loot the wealth created by their betters. They pretend decency and mortality but everywhere they go their incompetence begets chaos as they stuff their pockets through legal theft and then walk off to the next disaster. In a decent society the ropes would have been deployed a long time ago.
>They will both be eliminated before the convention, Cruz will be eliminated first. That is why Cruz is working so hard at lining up delegates. Brilliant campaign.
Bribery and vote stealing, fine old demorat activities. So as a counter I’m sure you won’t mind when Trump offers a million bucks per unbound deligate vote in the first round. 50 mil or so should be enough. That would be a Brilliant Strategy, right?
The way I see it:
Trump has: 743
Cruz has his own: 517
Plus Kasich’s: 143
Plus Rubio’s: 172
Cruz total: 832
The GOPe are making deals with Kasich and Rubio right now, to give their delegates to Cruz in exchange for positions in the cabinet.
Cruz is behind the scenes now wooing (aka bribing) both Kasich and Rubio delegates to be loyal to him on both the first and subsequent ballots. Cruz doesn’t need 1237 of his own delegates before convention, because the day before the convention, both Kasich and Rubio can publicly say “I release all of my delegates, to vote for Cruz on the first ballot.” If Trump hasn’t wooed them before the convention, Trump is toast.
They are all #NeverTrump. They all know how to play the game, and Trump is behind the curve on how the game is played. It may be too late to catch up. We shall see.
not really. We are weakest without both Trump and Cruz on the ticket.
A Cruz/Carly ticket would appeal to my heart , but not my head.
A trump /fatso ticket would appeal to head but not my heart.
an elected Trump/Cruz (even if Cruz hates Trump’s guts) would combine Cruz’s brain and political work ethic with Trump’s likable nationalism
Trump’s vitriol is not going to be in his favor.
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That’s how you might see it playing out. I on the other hand have been listening to a driven man who only knows how to WIN! So mark my words Trump if he’s close to the 1237 and he needs a few delegates to win over, he will succeed. He’s not the politician who’s decisions are based on money backing and a Trans Pacific Partnership to sell out this country he wasn’t born in. Whereas Trump will do what he has been planning for years and that being President to make this country great again. That’s how I see it falling in line.
Yes. No one is "mathematically eliminated" until someone gets to 1237.
If it’s so brilliant why is he losing?
Unreal.
The real problem I had with the Wisconsin results was that 33 percent of Pubbies in exit polls would not support Trump or Cruz - but only 14 percent voted for Kasich. Which means the other 19 percent voted for Cruz in the hopes that Cruz can lead to a brokered convention. And deny us the victory over the GOPe we have wanted for so long.
Cruz will be mathematically eliminated when he needs to win, at the ballot box, MORE delegates than what is remaining. IN all likelihood, that will be 4/19.
Jim, I know Cruz is your first choice and the candidate you will vote for in the primary. But once he is mathematically eliminated would you call for him to suspend his campaign or continue in his quest for a contested convention?
“Trump hasn’t bought any delegates. He’s playing the system by the rules. Something that Rafael refuses to do.”
Not literally. There will be LEGAL compensation arrangements made. The campaign is making certain it’s a done deal.
It seems to me the question is not who is mathematically eliminated but can anyone win 1237.
If neither Trump or Cruz does has the 1237 before the convention then both are “mathematically eliminated”
Trump will get his ‘1,237’ by convention time.
And over the next 6 state contests Cruz is very likely to lose them all, and the pool of the remaining delegates will be much much smaller.
This scenario means Trump gets my vote, but not the vote of four family members of mine, including my wife.
Trump hasn’t bought any delegates. He’s playing the system by the rules. Something that Rafael refuses to do.
++++
Give us just one example where Cruz has violated the rules that apply to delegates.
Just one example.
Should be easy.
If nobody gets a majority of delegates, then nobody is eliminated.
Absolutely True, Jim, unfortunately at this time barring those GOP rubes changing the game at this stage, which We won't allow, I'll dance with who brung me (and their rules).
If my vote mattered in Texas, I would crawl across cut glass to vote against Hill or bern, but being in TX either of those latter two could run with a (R) behind their name and probably carry this State by 10 points.
“If Trump gets 1237, he will have won it fair and square, and I would be 100% opposed to any attempt to deny him the nomination.”
Agreed, I may not vote for him but don’t believe that any flim flam should be employed to deny him a earned victory.
Right now though I don’t see him getting to 1237.
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