Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.
If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:
Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.
Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.
Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.
It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.
I think I found a partial answer...
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2016/03/2016-republican-delegate-allocation-ohio.html
From the Ohio page..
Binding
The Ohio Republican Party rules are mostly silent on the matter of the release and/or binding of delegates. Article X, Section 1(d), the special rule added to make the allocation winner-take-all for just 2016, awards all 66 delegates to the winner of the statewide Ohio primary. That is the extent of the binding. Not included is information on how delegates would be released in the event that the winner of the primary withdraws from the race in addition to any description of how long those delegates would be bound at the national convention. Unlike other states, the number of ballots bound is not specified in the Ohio Republican Party rules.
While there are some gaps in these areas, Ohio is a state where state party rules overlap to some degree with Ohio state law on these matters. As such, the Ohio Republican Party is in consultation with Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted’s office to reconcile the differences across the rules/laws and to determine the details on the remaining release and binding issues.
I can only imagine what discussions are taking place between party bosses and the Ohio secretary of state’s office. I can’t come up with any other reason why Kasich is still in.
The battle has polarized against/for Donald. The reasons proffered may vary but the empirical outcome the same.
Mine tells me Trump is a sure loser. Of mammoth proportions. Mondale will be calling to offer condolences.
Trump supporters are just as sure that Cruz can never win. Maybe we're both right, but only one of us will ever find out for sure.
Kasich has publicly stated- No deal with Trump.
Not a likely scenario...
Of course Kasich is saying that now. Trump doesn’t have any thing to offer now. Why would Kasich P.O. the GOPe and depress his own vote by saying he wants to be VP?
These guys are all looking out for number one. If Kasich gets a good deal from Trump he’s going to take it.
If Trump gets 1237 delegates, Cruz will be eliminated.
You seem to be deep into the pretense.
Trump will slow down on the Lyin’ Ted speak when he has it tatoo’d on Cruz’s forehead.
Ted will essentially be out on 04/19. (numerically)
*********
Trump is self funding, so if he were numerically out of it, like Ted will be shortly, he’d bail. As a creature of PAC/special interest money, Ted will carry on ensuring a devastating convention battle. I fail to see how his candidacy, once eliminated, isn’t acting at the behest of the GOPe.
If trump and cruz agree agree to run the 112 delegate rules committee , this scenario does not happen.
“If the GOPe forces Trump and Cruz out and they “select” the nominee, in my view we have just lost the election”.
House and Senate also, Kamikaze voters will be virulent.
That would certainly explain why the Bush/rove/Dewhurst machine put up so much $$$$$ to defeat him here in Texas.
Cruz is playing the cards he was dealt, and quite proficiently, I might add.
In the recent past if the other candidates were mathematically eliminated then the momentum of the one left standing would carry him past the number needed to nominate and he would have the nomination locked up by the time the convention rolls around.
I’m not sure that will happen this time. I can see how both Cruz and Trump supporters will vote only for their candidate in the remaining primaries regardless of whether that candidate is “mathematically eliminated” and with proportional allocation of delegates there will be no “winner” with 1237 before the convention.
The only mathematical elimination is when the convention happens and one candidate has a majority. Luckily it is the same as real elimination. Mathematics says there are rules, and if you follow them, your answer will coincide with other people using the same rules. So far the rules are:
1) At convention, a candidate with the majority wins the nomination.
2) If no candidate has a majority, more voting is required.
3) Some delegates will be released from their obligations after the first ballot.
4) Other rules will be discussed and voted on by the delegates.
Donald Trump, either through choice or lack foresight chose to test only option 1. That was bad campaign management. Poor deal making with his following (he could ignore 2-4 and still win)? This is not rocket science with apologies to Herman Cain or perhaps not brain surgery with the same to Ben Carson.
He was bragging early about how little he spends on his campaign. This is his result, and no one else’s. He may not be allowed to go “3rd party” as many of those deadlines have also past. His “Hail Mary” pass is to convince enough people he was robbed, and couch it as really a win for...whatever.
He is acting like a spoiled sports star complaining that while he was celebrating with champagne, he let the winning touchdown happen for the other side...”it’s not fair!”
Many of the Trump supporters are getting so out of hand in purveying a really negative path, I’m actually thinking about Bernie. I doubt I’m alone. Trump is just a crappy person. Where is Reagan when you need him and the eleventh commandment?
DK
With respect Jim.
It doesn’t work that way, Wendel. Sure, Trump could offer Rubio the VP slot, but Rubio can’t tell his pledged delegates to vote for someone else. He could release them, but then they are free to vote for Cruz, and if my infomation is correct, the Florida delegation has its share of Cruz supporters who will not vote for Trump regardless of Rubio’s wishes.
Tells me all I need to know. Walker stood up to the evil unions three times.
yup.
It works just like paying for the wall. It works.
Why post irrelavant nonsense? So, when Trump is mathematically eliminated by your rationale, will you also call on hom to quit?
makes me wonder why there is a never trump movement and not a nevercruz movement—even with Cruz calling out mitch over the ex im bank lies.....
Yep! The GOPe will cease to be the majority. (not that they did anything while being the majority in both the House and Senate)
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.