Posted on 04/07/2016 6:10:31 AM PDT by Rockitz
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’s overwhelming victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday makes it all but impossible for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination ahead of the RNC convention in Cleveland.
Trump currently leads the GOP field with 743 delegates. He would need to win 58.9 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to obtain the simple majority necessary.
A number of the states remaining award delegates proportionally. The bulk of delegates in one critical upcoming state, Pennsylvania, aren’t officially bound to any candidate. The fight for California’s massive 172 delegates will be fought largely in each of the state’s 54 Congressional Districts.
As a result, Breitbart News estimates that Donald Trump will end the primary portion of the nomination fight with 1164 delegates, 74 short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. This estimate assumes Trump’s performance in upcoming contests is consistent with the results prior to Wisconsin.
In other words, it is a static estimate, assuming no great change in the trajectory, tone, or focus of the campaigns. It isn’t based on any future missteps, like those experienced by the Trump campaign ahead of the Wisconsin primary. Our assumption is, in many respects, the most optimistic for the Trump campaign. Because of this, it underscores the steep challenge Donald Trump faces heading into the 4th Quarter of the primary season.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Absolutely. In any one-on-one debate Trump will wipe the floor with Lyin' Ted. That's why a real debate is the last thing Cruz wants.
If Trump falls short of 1237 why can’t Cruz cut deals with Kasich and Rubio to get their delegates?
I’ll take Trump/Kasich over Ryan/Cruz anytime.
Does this include the stolen delegates?
If Trump is that close, he will win on the first ballot with uncommitteds and released delegates. That would be the same as Ford in 1976.
The idea that every delegate not 110% for Trump would never vote for him just isn’t true. Delegates who have a long-term commitment to the GOP as a viable party want it together to fight another day.
All that is assuming Trump doesn’t somehow disqualify himself.
That's what Ted does after 8 years in the Whitehouse, at least in his mind....
The problem is that Trump -- and a lot of his supporters -- have always been gleeful about insulting other candidates, and attacking the party in general. Well, when it comes time for all those delegates (a great many of whom are elected GOP officials at the state and local level), do you think they're going to rally against the guy who has been insulting them for months?
I think Trump almost had this in the bag after his AIPAC speech. As much as he is disliked, I think many in the party recognize that it is preferable to nominate the guy with the most delegates, even if it is not a majority. But since then, he's diminished himself with unforced errors, and now everyone is nervous about him self-destructing in the general election.
And it doesn't help him that he's been so openly at war with the party itself, and insulting of anyone who doesn't support him. Taking metaphorical craps on the heads of other people is not a good way to attract their support.
Bottom line is that if Trump does lose this nomination, the guy to blame will be the one staring back at him in the mirror. He will have blown it all on his own.
I think the Donald long time ago said something about if the GOP screws him over, he will run as Independent.
Cruz getting nomination without having one the majority of states will result in Trump running as an Independent.
After which, either Sanders or Hillary win, and likely get to appoint the next 5 Supreme Court justices. And then you have an entire GENERATION of 6-3 and 7-2 liberal decisions.
Good luck preventing illegal immigration, socialism, more pro-gay, pro-tranny, pro-Muslim stuff with Sanders or Hillary appointing 5 justices on top of the 2 Obama appointed.
I’m not even sure how far they’ll go with that kind of supremacy in the Supreme Court. Probably see an end to religious rights. The US will probably become as cluster*#*$ like the EU.
” If the nom is stolen from Trump”
******
Lincoln won the GOP nomination in 1860 at a contested convention. Nothing is being stolen from Trump. If he doesn’t seal the deal on the first ballot, losing the nomination on subsequent ballots isn’t theft.
You may now continue with your illogical emotional whining and threats about what Trump will do if he loses.
Get what? If the nom is stolen from Trump he pushes the GOP destruct button on his phone. Ted Cruz will never be POTUS.
Please try to remember Trump has to get to 1237 delegates before there is any possibility of anything being stolen from him.
I agree. Cruz will not become President or even win the nomination. It will be either Trump or GOPe.
Cruz’ win in WI can be likened to the German winter offensive of 1944 - their last hurrah. Latest NY polling shows Cruz in third behind Kasich.
Now I had really hoped it would be a Trump/Cruz ticket. With Cruz’ behavior, that’s not going to happen now. Cruz needed to realize that in this election cycle, Cruz’ spot would be to be VP and set himself up in 2020 or 2024, as he’s still a young guy. But Cruz’ me me me/now now now mindset hurt him.
This is purely my opinion, but it would not surprise me that the GOP ticket will be Trump/Kasich. If that happens, and Kasich throws his delegates to Trump, Trump only needs to reach a bit under 1,100 delegates, which fits the analysis of the article. This approach negates the Cruz/GOPe strategy of a brokered convention.
I think the GOPe will take this alternative as it puts a GOPe person on the ticket. They get Trump and his self-funding campaign and enthusiastic base, which will help down ticket GOP races. Also, the GOPe will be happy that Cruz is marginalized. The GOPe wasn’t too happy about Trump knocking off Bush, but they are going to be happy with a Trump/Kasich ticket finally getting rid of the Clintons.
Now there is apparently another National Enquirer piece on Cruz. The Cruz supporters can easily call this innuendo and rumor mongering. Can’t argue with that at all. But it would not surprise me that the NE has more on Cruz and they’re playing him like a fish. If in a week or two, that alleged escort has a press conference along with Gloria Allred, those delegates that Cruz thinks he’ll get on the second or third ballot will disappear.
Cruz won WI, which is a great win for him. I don’t see him winning another state of import. Will he win NY, NJ, MA, CT, PA or CA? I doubt it.
I think Trump gets over 1,100 delegates locked in and then he cuts the VP deal with Kasich.
Michael Patrick Leahy
Any relation to Leaky?
> “He would need to win 58.9 percent of the remaining ***pledged*** delegates to obtain the simple majority necessary.”
Flynn and Leahy are a pair, aren’t they? A pair of unlikable stooges, why?
Because by their own statement they reveal they understand there are ***pledged*** delegates. Which means they understand there are other types of delegates. In fact, there are 323 unbound delegates.
In fact again, the Trump Campaign via its delegate mathematician Barry Bennett had allowed for ZERO delegates in WI to be added to the tally on target for the nomination, yet the campaign picked up 6 delegates there. These are BONUS delegates. Trump is actually ahead of his plan. WI was always viewed as a loss but the campaign team worked the outlying areas and came away with 6 bonus delegates to their tally.
And of the 323 unbound delegates, it is realistic that Donald will get at least 100+ of those, thereby pushing him over the top of the 1237 threshold.
So Flynn and Leahy, go back to your cubicles and try again. This time, don’t come back out as flunkies.
It’s not “stealing”, if, heading into the convention, no one has a mathematical majority.
If Trump has 1237 (or more) before the convention, then it would be stealing if he isn’t the nominee after the convention.
For 150+ years the rule has been that the candidate who has the majority of delegate votes at (and therefore after) the convention is the nominee. It’s just been that in the last 30-40 years there’s been a candidate that has had a majority of delegates bound to vote for him before the convention. So the convention became (largely) a formality at that point. But this has not historically been the case.
Ask your grandparents (if they’re still alive) or anyone who knew of the conventions, and how contentious they were before 30 or 40 years ago. Or pick up a history book. The conventions have been quite contentious over their history. And that’s largely because many times there have been candidates going into it where none had a majority. Some had a “plurality” (which is simply more delegates than all the others) but not a majority (which is 50% + 1). This cycle, 1237 represents 50% of the total delegates plus one.
With all that said, I’ll throw you a bone here: I’m a bit surprised Brietbart of all places is predicting it’s “all but impossible” for Trump to reach 1237. They’ve been such a cheerleader for Trump in the last few months; that’s the only reason I give this much consideration at all. I personally believe that Trump most likely will reach 1237 before the convention. I think Breitbart is jumping the gun here a little.
If the Party chooses not to reward the top delegate winner then the party will implode. It’s that simple.
Trump could make alliances but why should he? The entire party has conspired against him, including Cruz. Has any other election had a Kasich stay in the race only to pull delegates?
If Cruz wins the most delegates going into the convention I will support him. If not and the nomination is awarded to him, I along with many others will bolt the party for good.
Heard that Trump is heading to DC to meet with Paul Ryan- I guess he is selling out to the GOPe.
Face it, Trump was not prepared wit a ground game and a system to manage delegates. He just hired an establishment operative to do this. Behind the curve.
I agree, Trump goes into convention with a deal, especially if Cruz+Kasich does not get Cruz over 1237.
If we are using a VP slot for a deal, then either Rubio or Kasick make sense. Both are from battleground states. Rubio is closer to trump on policy so Rubio would be a better fit. I do not think a candidate can command their delegates to vote for any other particular candidate. But they can ask. Trump could offer Cruz the VP but Cruzs’ ego is too big to accept the offer and I do not think Cruzs’ bosses would allow him to accept it either. Sadly Cruz is not his own man he is owned by the #NeverTrump GOPe so deal making is not possible with Cruz.
Why settle for Supreme court justice when you can be POTUS. Cruz’ ego is to big to back down now.
If the GOPe is going to continue to sabatoge the front runner Trump should get out now and run libertarian party. Screw both sides. This is getting ridiculous. Instead of focusing on the dems like we should be this infighting is out of control. No one will be left standing except Bernie when this is all done.
172 is an outsized number relative to the number of Republicans left in California.
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