Posted on 02/17/2016 2:27:13 PM PST by ifinnegan
Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has fallen behind Ted Cruz in the national GOP horserace, according to a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
In the poll, Cruz is the first choice of 28 percent of Republican primary voters, while Trump gets 26 percent. They're followed by Marco Rubio at 17 percent, John Kasich at 11 percent, Ben Carson at 10 percent and Jeb Bush at 4 percent.
You’re welcome. Yes, I know how to weight. You will need to know the number, or have the means to calculate the number, in each of the groups you want to average together.
Let’s say a poll of 500 LV has 20% in the 19-44 age group:
number = .20 * 500 = 100 LV
And has 40% in the 45-60 age group:
number = .40 * 500 = 200 LV
Let’s say that Charlie Brown is the first choice of 70% of 19-44 and 50% of 45-60, and we want to know what the weighted average of the combined groups is:
((.70 * 100) + (.50 * 200)) / (100 + 200) = .5667
= 57% rounded
I hope that this makes sense.
BTW, I enjoy reading your analyses. :)
This is the only national poll that was conducted WHOLY after the GOP debate AND Justice Scalia’s death. People are starting to wake up.
Cruz & Rubio are ineligible:
http://powderedwigsociety.com/eligibility-of-cruz-and-rubio/
Thanks. It’s funny that the stat hounds on Twitter grew eerily silent on such things a Millennials and educated voters in polls. Earlier in the campaign they were constantly harping on these demos, which are overwhelmingly moved in Trump’s direction. But the categories would be subdivided and I would cite an average and they’d just say “well, you didn’t weight them”-— but wouldn’t produce the real number because it would undermine their side.
“....Cruz is exactly where he needs to be....very proud of this mans work in his campaign....he’s got the best out there for him.”
So true, and Ted Cruz is so disciplined and doesn’t have to call people names to be a winner. People like that.
Ted Cruz is the only pres. candidate that I saw on Priests for Life website that they call a “political leader” for the First Amendment. I didn’t even see Rubio’s name there, but maybe it’s because, while Rubio is prolife, Rubio is not a LEADER for religious freedom like Ted Cruz is.
Love the pix you posted in Post 261, except Donald’s nose should be a little LONGER. :)
The Treehouse has debunked this as yet another faked poll by NBC:
Don’t.
Why did the Treehouse stop writing about Oregon?
This might be helpful:
I believe a poll says the U.S. public is evenly divided on whether the GOP Senate should embrace the Obama court nominee. I predict the Republican senators cave in the words of their friend Mr. Bill, “sooner rather than later”.
Ha! Saying that “you didn’t weight it” is a weak retort. Most of the time a simple average is close enough to make a point.
Well, that’s what I thought.
BTTT
HEY EVERYBODY LOOK AT THE FAKE POLL
NBC/WSJ ran this fake polll three days before the election
How did they get or soooooooooo wrong?
Absolutely pathetic and desperate!
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