Posted on 02/02/2016 5:56:10 AM PST by Red Steel
The first in a series of daily tracking polls leading up to the New Hampshire primary finds Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders holding huge leads among Granite State voters.
The poll, released Monday by UMass Lowell, found Trump leading the Republican race by 26 percentage points. Sanders leads among Democrats by 31 percentage points.
The poll results are consistent with other recent surveys that have found Sanders and Trump in the lead, although the UMass Lowell poll has both Trump and Sanders leading by larger margins than other recent polls.
New Hampshire will hold the nation's first primary next Tuesday, Feb. 9. The poll results are being released on a day that most political observers are focused on Iowa, where voters are holding the country's first caucuses on Monday.
New Hampshire voters tend to be heavily independent, and the poll results show that those candidates performing well are those who are generally seen as independent from establishment-as-usual politics.
On the Republican side, the businessman Trump has support from 38 percent of likely primary voters, followed by Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, with 12 percent. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are tied at 9 percent, followed by Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio at 8 percent and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 7 percent.
New Hampshire Republicans are often more socially liberal than Republicans in other parts of the country, and they tend to vote for more moderate candidates. But the numbers appear to indicate that the moderate vote is split among several candidates, while conservatives have coalesced around Cruz.
The poll found that Trump's support is strongest among men and among voters with lower levels of education. Cruz leads among religious voters.
On the Democratic side, Sanders, an independent U.S. Senator from neighboring Vermont, has support from 61 percent of likely voters. Former secretary of state, U.S. Senator and first lady Hillary Clinton trails with 30 percent of the vote.
Sanders' support is incredibly strong among young Democrats. Of respondents ages 18 to 29, 89 percent preferred Sanders. Clinton polled best among older voters.
UMass Lowell and 7NEWS will be conducting daily tracking polls from Monday through Feb. 8. The results will be posted each morning on the UMass Lowell website.
The poll released Monday surveyed 1,413 voters, including 461 Republican likely voters and 442 Democratic likely voters, between Jan. 29 and Jan. 31. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.1 percent for Republican likely voters and plus or minus 5.3 percent for Democratic likely voters.
It was 40% Trump v. Cruz 21% not too long ago in a South Carolina poll.
I think Trump will win South Carolina but he can’t let attacks on his conservatism go unanswered.
Given NH’s political views, Trump likely wins (although closer than RCP says). If Sanders wins, the DNC will have to change its pants.
The Iowa circle jerk caucus is a huge money maker for Iowa.
The caucusing ones should stand on a street corner with their price on a sign like hookers with a their price tag.
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