Trump surpasses Cruz in 538's Iowa odds

FiveThirtyEight ^ | 01/28/2016 | Nate Silver

[ScottWalkerForPresident2016]

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 48% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

[BigEdLB]

I think Iowa will be Trump-Rubio-Cruz

40-25-20. Apparently his debate was mediocre overall, no gaffe, not horrible, mediocre

[Cboldt]

-- Apparently his debate was mediocre overall, no gaffe, not horrible, mediocre --

That was my impression. Covered the same old ground on immigration, with Christie breaking it up with his "that's senator talk" quip. I think that's three or four debates to use this pattern.

Luntz pumped up Rubio, Kelly pumped up Cruz (just a little bit). I don't think the debate has any impact on the outcome, other than maybe lifting Rubio a little bit, at Cruz's expense.

[lewislynn]

Trump has a ground game,

Yea but he doesn't have a "bus" AKA a motorhome with vinyl graphics plastered all over it.

[TigerClaws]

Ha!

But he’s got Air Force Trump!

I’d love to see the list of ‘gotcha’ questions Donald avoided as well as what video they were going to play.

Obviously, the teen ‘Muslim’ (she was an infidel by Muslim standards from her attire and behavior) CAIR plant had for him. That’s why she was there.

[BigEdLB]

But he does have a couple of helicopters and if the weather is clear he can do the ultimate voter transport... LOL jk

[Georgia Girl 2]

Oh yeh, they had a Luntz focus group pivoting for Rubio. I don’t think so.

[nopardons]

You’re correct !

[DoughtyOne]

I don’t know what to make of this as far as ground game goes.

As others have said, Trump is no fool and I don’t think he’s handing Iowa to Cruz.

If he were, he wouldn’t be in Iowa.

There has to be something going on that we’re not seeing. If not, we’ll know by Monday night.

My guess is, Trump has a different way of doing things. Maybe that’s on purpose so others can’t figure it out.

We’ll see.

[nopardons]

All of the polls re Hillary V others, are ridiculous in the extreme; fore several different reasons.

[Charles Henrickson]

I don’t think any of the candidates is going to win a majority in the Iowa caucus. I think the “winner” is probably going to get about 33%, the runner-up about 25%, and the third-place finisher maybe 15-20%. The top three—not necessarily in this order—will be Cruz, Rubio, and Trump.

[NKP_Vet]

Listening to C-Span and the calls after the vet event. Couldn’t believe all the democrats calling in saying they were voting for Trump. I think we’re getting ready to see a tidal wave and Trump might win every state in the primary.

[Fernet Branca]

I really think Jeb is going to make a move.
Just a hunch I have.
The New Hampshire poll you reference is not surprising given the strong New England ties the Bush family enjoys.

[bigbob]

I agree. All’s fair I guess, but some of the Cruz people (mostly those zotted and now relegated to the losers bracket) were some of the nastiest people I’ve seen on any online forum, and certainly beyond the pale for FR. More like what I see over on the DUmp.

[freepersup]

All the talk about Trump not having a ground game is perhaps due to the fact Trump is intentionally misleading- with a feint strategy. He said he would not have his generals going on television and tell the enemy what we are going to do. Why would he do the opposite in Iowa, and loudly and publicly reveal his ground game strategies?

Hiring the guy who won it for Santorum, speaks volumes. Also, Santorum and Huckabee are staunch pro lifers. They were both on stage tonight at Trumps charity event for vets. Without endorsing Trump- they endorsed Trump.

Here are some endorsements by known heavy weights- many of which are also staunchly pro life, and that most Iowans would easily recognize:

Sarah Palin
Jerry Falwell Jr.
Pastor Jeffers
Joe Arpiao
Aissa Wayne
Phyllis Schlafly
Loretta Lynn
Mike Ditka
Ted Nugent
Carl Icahn
Rudy Giuliani

[Bobalu]

Listening to C-Span and the calls after the vet event. Couldn't believe all the democrats calling in saying they were voting for Trump

The swaying of democrat voters to Trump is altering the calculus of selecting his VP.

I have been of the opinion that no matter the animosity that has developed between the two great men Trump would be forced to select Cruz as VP just to bring the disgruntled Cruz supporters into the fold for the general.

But the number of dems moving to him means he must weigh the number of dems that will be put off by a Cruz selection against the Cruz supporters who won't vote Trump is Cruz is not the VP.

I hope Cruz wins the toss since I think that he will be a great president someday and that being Trump's VP is his only chance of ever rising to that station.

Go Trump!
Go Cruz!

[jpsb]

I think Cruz wins Iowa in a very close race. I hope I am wrong. Cruz has bet the farm on Iowa. Trump is campaigning in NH, SC, Fla as well as Iowa. But if Trump wins Iowa, it’s game set match, Trump will be the GOP nominee.

[BuckeyeTexan]

I know two libtards who registered to vote for the first time just so they can pull the lever for Trump. They have never voted, ever.

[JLAGRAYFOX]

You are 100% correct....Trump, Rubio, Cruz!!!

[JerseyDvl]

And lots of foot stomping while promising to sit out the general of course. The Canadian Cruz really has no chance against Hillary or Sanders so the sooner he’s gone, the better.

[wiggen]

Santorum was 1% before the caucus i read a day or 2 ago.