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Trump surpasses Cruz in 538's Iowa odds
FiveThirtyEight ^ | 01/28/2016 | Nate Silver

Posted on 01/28/2016 9:08:37 PM PST by ScottWalkerForPresident2016

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Donald Trump has a 48% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.

(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: New York; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2016election; canadian; cruz; donaldtrump; election2016; ineligible; iowa; newyork; newyorklib; scottish; tedcruz; texas; trump
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Trump now has a 48% chance of winning Iowa, compared to 41% for Cruz.

Just a few days ago, as can be seeb on this FreeRepublic thread, Cruz had a 51% chance, vs. 29% for Trump.

1 posted on 01/28/2016 9:08:37 PM PST by ScottWalkerForPresident2016
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To: ScottWalkerForPresident2016

Interesting. Hannity mentioned today that the Iowa polls have been from 3-30% off in the past as far as projections. So they really have no idea at this point.

By all accounts though, Cruz has a super solid ground game in place.

Will be interesting to see what surprises await this weekend!


2 posted on 01/28/2016 9:10:45 PM PST by TigerClaws
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To: TigerClaws

I’m betting Trump has more tricks up his sleeve, endorsements or something.


3 posted on 01/28/2016 9:13:58 PM PST by Kenny (RED)
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To: ScottWalkerForPresident2016

Silver is now putting his bull aside. I suppose he wants to get it right in the end. He’s always known, and hoped Trump would go away, and as a liberal, he doesn’t want the Dems to face Trump in the general.

Ping you South since you told me months ago how you thought Silver was sooo good at prognostication. Well he’s flipped it now and not to your liking.


4 posted on 01/28/2016 9:17:22 PM PST by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: ScottWalkerForPresident2016

I tell you what, Monday night is going to be very interesting. My bet is that Trump pulls an immediately convincing victory. But it will not get these Cruz supporters to back off until it actually happens nationally, and it will happen big. I don’t pretend for a second that they will take it well. There will be insults for Trump, his wife, kids and even grand kids.


5 posted on 01/28/2016 9:17:24 PM PST by JoSixChip (Ted Cruz (R-Goldman Sachs) - losers are not winners)
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Go Trump!!


6 posted on 01/28/2016 9:17:54 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel ("God only is my Rock and my Salvation; He is my Defence." (Psa 62:2))
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To: South40

Post at 4 was also for you.


7 posted on 01/28/2016 9:17:58 PM PST by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: ScottWalkerForPresident2016

We’ll see.


8 posted on 01/28/2016 9:25:38 PM PST by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: Red Steel

As a liberal, he’d love for the Democrats to face Touchback Trump.

Rceent polls show Cruz and Rubio beating Hillary and Trump losing to her.

Frankly, I think Silver is very overrated. I always have. He’s a partisan hack.


9 posted on 01/28/2016 9:27:33 PM PST by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: ScottWalkerForPresident2016

FOX was in full Rubio promo mode after the debate.

CNN said an internal Rubio poll in Iowa shows him at 20%.

Of course, I heard a Jeb! poll had Jeb! in second place in New Hampshire.


10 posted on 01/28/2016 9:27:36 PM PST by TigerClaws
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To: Red Steel
By all accounts though, Cruz has a super solid ground game in place.

Trump hired Rick Sanatorium's guy who won it 4 years ago

The best

11 posted on 01/28/2016 9:28:51 PM PST by scooby321
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To: TigerClaws
I think Iowa will be Trump-Rubio-Cruz

The propaganda is strong for Rubio.

12 posted on 01/28/2016 9:29:48 PM PST by Cboldt
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To: TBP
Frankly, I think Silver is very overrated. I always have. He's a partisan hack.

LoL Cruzers were singing praises for Silver not too long ago.

13 posted on 01/28/2016 9:30:11 PM PST by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: Red Steel

Maybe some were — I never have.


14 posted on 01/28/2016 9:30:40 PM PST by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: TigerClaws
Of course, Fox has those Rubio connections. I like to think people aren't so easily swayed, and Rubio is such a dud, that it won't work, but who knows? The internal is surely leaked Rubio propaganda, not worthy of note until an independent, public poll backs it up.

I think there's a chance Rubio comes in second in Iowa, and the media subsequently proclaims him the winner because of his 'surprise' second-place finish.

15 posted on 01/28/2016 9:31:04 PM PST by ScottWalkerForPresident2016
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To: Red Steel

Thanks for pointing out the hypocrisy, Red. ;-)


16 posted on 01/28/2016 9:32:18 PM PST by Jane Long (Go Trump, go! Make America Safe Again :)
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To: ScottWalkerForPresident2016

I was puzzled by the national Rubio/Bush attack ads. They are both fighting to be THE go to establishment guy thinking Trump or Cruz will be THE go to outsider.


17 posted on 01/28/2016 9:32:23 PM PST by TigerClaws
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To: TBP

Polls 10 months out are worthless. I don’t thinkHillary could beat anyone except maybe Jeb. Trump would smoke her.


18 posted on 01/28/2016 9:36:51 PM PST by jospehm20
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To: Jane Long

You’re welcome. ;-)


19 posted on 01/28/2016 9:38:56 PM PST by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: TigerClaws

Trump has a ground game, they were discussing it here.


20 posted on 01/28/2016 9:43:04 PM PST by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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