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Are the polls overstating Trump's support?
The Washington Examiner ^ | 12/1/2015 | David M. Drucker

Posted on 12/01/2015 12:51:28 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel

Donald Trump's lead in public opinion polling could have a soft underbelly, leaving him more vulnerable than the numbers might suggest.

The New York real estate mogul and reality television star paces the field of Republican presidential candidates nationally, garnering an average of 35.1 in the Huffington Post polling tracker. Rounding out the top four candidates are retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, with 13.9 percent and Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, with 12.6 percent and 11.4 percent, respectively.

But use the site's custom filter to remove surveys conducted via the Internet, Interactive Voice Response, a combination of IVR and online and through automated telephone interviews, and the data looks significantly different. Using only polls conducted via interviews with live telephone operators, Trump's still commanding position in the national GOP average drops to 27.2 percent; Carson's number rises to 20.2 percent.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: New York; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2016election; demagogicparty; election2016; elections; mediabias; memebuilding; newyork; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; tedcruz; texas; trump; trumpwasright; understatingsupport
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To: Jim Robinson
Trump can't be leading

I wonder who will get his votes after he drops out? /s

41 posted on 12/01/2015 3:09:16 PM PST by Jim Noble (Diseases desperate grown Are by desperate appliance relieved Or not at al)
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To: Jane Long

;)


42 posted on 12/01/2015 3:11:11 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I LOVE JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me!)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

...and he’s going to pull out any minute.

Man these folks are in denial.


43 posted on 12/01/2015 3:23:32 PM PST by DoughtyOne (I support President Pre-elect Donald J. Trump. Karl Rove, the GOPe, and Leftist's worst nightmare.)
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To: Jim Robinson

That’s right! He can’t be leading? Oh, but he is!


44 posted on 12/01/2015 3:27:41 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I LOVE JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me!)
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To: DoughtyOne

:)...any minute.


45 posted on 12/01/2015 3:28:55 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I LOVE JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me!)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

I know. It’s so sad... = :^(

Heh heh heh...


46 posted on 12/01/2015 4:21:54 PM PST by DoughtyOne (I support President Pre-elect Donald J. Trump. Karl Rove, the GOPe, and Leftist's worst nightmare.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

was at the beach over the weekend...saw several people wearing TRUMP T-shirts. A few wearing his hats.


47 posted on 12/01/2015 5:53:59 PM PST by rrrod (just an old guy with a gun in his pocket.l)
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To: TBP
Possibly a bit. Perhaps not.

Have you seen the pictures from his rallies compared to the other candidates' rallies? I think the polls are understating his support.

48 posted on 12/01/2015 5:57:42 PM PST by GingisK
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To: entropy12

It is foolish to say that an internet web site vote has any kind of reliability compared to a scientific poll. The science has to be there to make the sample representative of who is actually a likely voter. The demographic of who uses the net is not in synch with the demographic of who votes.


49 posted on 12/01/2015 6:00:29 PM PST by JediJones (The #1 Must-see Filibuster of the Year: TEXAS TED AND THE CONSERVATIVE CRUZ-ADE)
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To: Parley Baer
If anything they are understating his support. Look at the massive turnouts at his rallys.

Train wrecks have massive turnouts. Not many support train wrecks.

50 posted on 12/01/2015 6:07:49 PM PST by Starstruck (I'm usually sarcastic. Deal with it.)
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To: Jim Noble

It looked like a packed room but I have no idea the size of the room or the crowd.


51 posted on 12/01/2015 6:18:54 PM PST by Duchess47 ("One day I will leave this world and dream myself to Reality" Crazy Horse)
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To: TBP

The polls are likely correct in measuring his current support. Trump’s problem will be in trying to broaden his appeal. He has probably already peaked.


52 posted on 12/01/2015 7:08:27 PM PST by Jedidah
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To: rrrod

Wow. Great!


53 posted on 12/01/2015 7:23:11 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I LOVE JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me!)
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To: entropy12; SamAdams76; DoughtyOne; BlackFemaleArmyCaptain; Duchess47; rrrod; LS

I’m reading that a Quinnipiac U. poll is due out tomorrow. Those Lib quacks don’t like Trump. I won’t be surprised if they do their usual hatchet job on his support.


54 posted on 12/01/2015 10:39:26 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel

A ^University^ poll! Be suspicious of the teachers lounge crowd.


55 posted on 12/01/2015 10:47:55 PM PST by entropy12
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To: libbylu

How many rallies Palin ran during 2007? Trump is doing 5 EVERY WEEK, and averaging 10,000 in each.


56 posted on 12/01/2015 10:51:42 PM PST by entropy12
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To: JediJones

I will take a poll of half million participants over a push-pull poll of 300-400 respondents any day. Most people have internet these days. Even me in my 70’s lol.


57 posted on 12/01/2015 10:54:11 PM PST by entropy12
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To: Starstruck

train wrecks do not happen every week. Trump rallies are happening many times each week. He is in a different town in a different state every day!


58 posted on 12/01/2015 10:56:24 PM PST by entropy12
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To: entropy12

The amount of respondents isn’t what matters, it’s whether the sample proportionally matches who the voters are going to be.

Last I checked the advent of the internet didn’t cause real pollsters to all shut down.


59 posted on 12/02/2015 2:31:29 AM PST by JediJones (The #1 Must-see Filibuster of the Year: TEXAS TED AND THE CONSERVATIVE CRUZ-ADE)
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To: Red Steel

Surprise surprise, they actually show him rising two points.

Still 27%? I think they’re hedging there...


60 posted on 12/02/2015 9:14:47 AM PST by DoughtyOne (I support President Pre-elect Donald J. Trump. Karl Rove, the GOPe, and Leftist's worst nightmare.)
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