Coming to grips with a President Trump

Nate Silver, editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight, the dream site for statistics nerds, crystallized the bewilderment of the analyst class in trying to process the ongoing triumph of Donald Trump.

"About 25 percent of Americans identify as Republican. Donald Trump's getting about 25 percent of that 25 percent in the polls. Why is this impressive to people?" Silver tweeted, drawing more than 1,000 retweets and likes apiece.

The answer, of course, is twofold. First, that fourth-of-a-fourth is exactly the sort that often can wield such outsized influence in American presidential primary politics. Second, and even more to the point, is the mere existence of that particular fraction as an electorate that matters.

It matters because - in a subliminally resonant reminder of what jars us so much about ISIS - it's a political force at once freakishly dated and remarkably of-the-moment. Analogies fail. Trump's support cannot be reduced to another effusion of the conservative id or know-nothing nativism, however much it taps into or avails itself of those forces.

In a recent rant drawing quiet support from more than a few of the rising generation's media types, one Gawker writer flipped the script on Trump's fellow anti-refugee Republicans by fingering "dumb hicks" as "America's greatest threat." At a time when middle-age white males are dying at a stunning historic rate, it's easy to see how Trump might become a totem for the coarsely reactionary.

But Trump also draws potent support from a certain kind of elite: one with a visceral contempt for political ideology as such. Silicon Valley has helped spread the idea that what makes people "dumb" is seeing the world through political lenses, but among many of the rich and successful, it is taking on the cast of dogma.

The federal government is now too big and too â€œpath dependent,â€ as the social scientists say, to be shaken apart by one transient occupant of the White House....The vigor of ...of our federal government â€“ wonâ€™t easily be trumped.

Occasionally after wading through the miasma of self absorbed leftist writing one encounters a shaft of sunlight.

The truth is that Trump, or even Ted Cruz for that matter, cannot alone reverse course of our massive ship of state. John F. Kennedy once expressed his extreme frustration saying that he issued orders and directives to the bureaucracy but nothing happens. So it will be with Trump, or even Ted Cruz, as it has been with every president since at least Franklin Roosevelt.

Perhaps those Trump supporters who believe that bombast can overcome entrenched interests that are deeply dug in in Washington will at least concede that their man will need more than rhetoric if he is to achieve anything lasting in terms of reforming Washington. Please note, it took only a couple of years for George HW Bush to set in motion the undoing of virtually everything that Ronald Reagan stood for.

Perhaps those who put their faith in one man will sober up and take another look at the Article V approach which, when coupled with a charismatic leader in the White House (such as Ted Cruz) might actually enact some reforms of process which might keep the Republic from hurtling over the cliff.

Surely you are not attempting to conflate Ronald Reagan with bombast. That is the very point I made in my exchange with Jim Robinson on this thread, Reagan did not operate through bombast as does Trump. If you want to make an equation I would suggest you look to the likes of Huey Long.

No one can predict how much success any president will have with Congress. The most respected man in the world in 1918 was Woodrow Wilson. He was regarded as a near God in Europe and when he returned to America with his fourteen points and his League of Nations he was eviscerated in the Senate. He went to the people but had no success even before he was brought down by a stroke. Richard Nixon was elected with huge majorities and was one of America's smartest politicians yet the Democrats succeeded even in driving him from office in disgrace.

Trump will have neither the Republican establishment nor the Democrats in his camp and he will not have the whole of America as you suggest with which to intimidate Congress. Trump's bombast is appealing to you and me as hardheaded conservatives but it does not play well with soccer moms and the great bulk of the American people who do not live politics 24 /7. Barack Obama has been able to rule free of constraints from Congress for three reasons: 1) he is African-American and therefore it is illegitimate to criticize him-or has been for many years until recently; 2) he is a Democrat, note that Roosevelt, Kennedy and Johnson and now Obama have committed the same or worse crimes than Richard Nixon but they were never near impeachment; 3) Obama conceives of his legacy not in conventional terms but in the degree to which he transforms America.

Trump will not necessarily fare well in office with his outlandish bombast, the Art of the Deal to the contrary notwithstanding.

Surely you are not attempting to conflate Ronald Reagan with bombast.

What you are quick to dismiss, because I addressed bombast, is not something you can dismiss. No I don't think Reagan used bombast, but he did have the ability to go around Congress directly to the people. So while Trump does use it and Reagan didn't, they still both had/have a great connection to the people. I meant every word of what I said. I don't regret or alter any of it.

That is the very point I made in my exchange with Jim Robinson on this thread, Reagan did not operate through bombast as does Trump. If you want to make an equation I would suggest you look to the likes of Huey Long.

You might want me to look to the likes of Huey Long, but I'm not going to compare Trump the Huey Long and I think you should know why. Trump is not the sordid man Huey Long was.

No one can predict how much success any president will have with Congress. The most respected man in the world in 1918 was Woodrow Wilson. He was regarded as a near God in Europe and when he returned to America with his fourteen points and his League of Nations he was eviscerated in the Senate. He went to the people but had no success even before he was brought down by a stroke. Richard Nixon was elected with huge majorities and was one of America's smartest politicians yet the Democrats succeeded even in driving him from office in disgrace.

Richard Nixon won his re-election in a landslide because George McGovern was essentially a Gore/Kerry clone in a day and age when those sorts of men were seen for what they were. Nixon was not an endearing man. His ability to connect was strained at best. As for Woodrow Wilson, you've probably named another decent example. I don't know the dynamics of his personality, his ability to connect to the people. I consider Reagan and Trump to be unusual men in their ability to connect to the people. Most felt Reagan was a father figure. Perhaps Trump is more like an Uncle. At any rate, folks really do connect with him. He's not getting the turnouts he is for no reason. I don't identify with that feeling, but I can observe it in others. People like him. They think he's shooting straight with them. He is connecting. They trust him.

Trump will have neither the Republican establishment nor the Democrats in his camp and he will not have the whole of America as you suggest with which to intimidate Congress.

I disagree here. The Republicans in the House are going to fall in line behind Trump. They want the perks of having their guy in the White House, and it's almost an imposibility for them to shun him. For all the bluster, I think they fall in line. If they don't, the Republican party will die.

Trump's bombast is appealing to you and me as hardheaded conservatives but it does not play well with soccer moms and the great bulk of the American people who do not live politics 24 /7.

I really think you are misreading this. He is beating the pants off other Republicans, and he is showing well against Clinton already. He hasn't even talked directly to the public regarding her in earnest. He's said some things to us, but wait until he goes after her. This is not going to be a repeat of Bush, Dole, Bush, McCain, and Romney. Trump is in it to win it, and he's going to attack her on everything we have every wanted her attacked on. By the time he's done with her, she'll be simpering in a corner somewhere.

This guy is sharp as a tack. You think he'll give her a pass on things? It's going to be brutal. She will be finished when he's done with her. He won't hold back and the public is going to love it.

Barack Obama has been able to rule free of constraints from Congress for three reasons: 1) he is African-American and therefore it is illegitimate to criticize him-or has been for many years until recently; 2) he is a Democrat, note that Roosevelt, Kennedy and Johnson and now Obama have committed the same or worse crimes than Richard Nixon but they were never near impeachment; 3) Obama conceives of his legacy not in conventional terms but in the degree to which he transforms America.

I agree with your comments regarding Obama and his free ride for the reasons you stated. I agree with the comments on the other presidents as well.

Trump will not necessarily fare well in office with his outlandish bombast, the Art of the Deal to the contrary notwithstanding

We will see what Trump accomplishes. I think you and a great many others will be surprised. This guy is not a fool. He may come off like one, but I almost wonder if he doesn't pull the crazy Harry routine so folks will underestimate him. He is always thinking, and it even goes to gamesmanship on a sophisticated level. In some ways he reminds me of an upper crust British type that is toying with you in ways you don't even realize they are. You leave and they bust up knowing you didn't have a clue what was really going on. He's that good > IMO.

Check this out for a good laugh. You'll probably disagree, but that's okay. It's my prediction for the 2016 General Election as it relates to the presidency. LINK (PDF)

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