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Last Men Standing: When Trump, Carson & Fiorina fade, Cruz and Rubio might be the GOP's finalists.
US News & World Report ^ | October 2, 2015 | Robert Schlesinger

Posted on 10/02/2015 11:32:47 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

It's possible, just possible, that the final battle to become the 2016 GOP standard-bearer will come down to a pair of first-generation Cuban-American, first-term senators. Yes, I'm talking about the same Republican Party that has proven so incompetent in reaching out to Hispanic voters that it followed up its 2012 post-mortem determination to get better at it by, arguably, getting worse. Not that a final showdown between Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida will necessarily help on that score, but more on that later.

How does this scenario play out? It starts with the assumption that the three current front-runners, according to RealClearPolitics' average of polls – former reality TV star Donald Trump (23.3 percent), neurosurgeon Ben Carson (16.3) and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (11.8) – will all fade.

There are good reasons to expect this both in general and specific to each candidate. Trump's have been repeated and recycled for months: He's an egomaniacal, serially insulting, loud-mouth and while that might not sink him in a GOP primary, his ideological incoherence and departures from standard Republican policy positions probably will. After being endlessly foretold since his announcement the great Trump decline appears to finally be under way: He still leads but his share of supporters has dropped from 30.6 percent on the night of the second debate to 23.3 percent, more than a 7 percentage point drop in two weeks. That is, as the man might say, yuuuuge.

Carson too, while presenting a contrastingly lower-key mien, has been a gaffe-machine, suggesting that prisons make convicts gay, comparing the U.S. to Nazi Germany....

(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Philosophy; Politics/Elections; US: California; US: Florida; US: New York; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bencarson; california; carlyfiorina; carson; cruz; election2016; fiorina; florida; iraq; jebbush; kurdistan; marcorubio; newyork; noflyzone; rubio; syria; tedcruz; texas; trump
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To: faithhopecharity

Fiorina is fading as people learn about her past
(and she makes ridiculous statements about Syria just like Hillary and McCain....the 3 stooges?)
++++
I agree. Right now I’m waiting to hear what Cruz thinks about the Fiorina-Clinton No-Fly-Zone. I hope he gets it right. Trump certainly did.


21 posted on 10/02/2015 11:54:46 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

What Robert Schlesinger doesn’t take into account is that 25-30% of base will STAY HOME if Jeb! or Rubio is the nominee! I know I will


22 posted on 10/02/2015 11:54:50 AM PDT by MichelleWSC3
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Me thinks you got the “fade” candidates wrong.


23 posted on 10/02/2015 11:57:48 AM PDT by WENDLE (Let Russia Fight ISIS !! Who cares??)
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To: Charles Henrickson

LOL, Trump’s numbers are falling every day if we just read ABCCBSCNNNBCFOX/AP headlines.


24 posted on 10/02/2015 12:00:50 PM PDT by treetopsandroofs (Had FDR been GOP, there would have been no World Wars, just "The Great War" and "Roosevelt's Wars".)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

They will not fade.


25 posted on 10/02/2015 12:02:47 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.nts on)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It’s possible, just possible, that I may win the lottery soon.


26 posted on 10/02/2015 12:07:59 PM PDT by McGruff (Trump-Cruz 2016. Make America Great Again.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Another GOPe California dreaming. :-)


27 posted on 10/02/2015 12:28:51 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: WENDLE

Speaking of Trump, he will be holding a rally in Nashville, TN tomorrow at 2:30 p.m. He was supposed to be in Virginia Beach, VA today, but had to cancel due to all the rain.,


28 posted on 10/02/2015 12:28:57 PM PDT by Catsrus ( I callz 'em as I seez 'em.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Cruz and Rubio are NOT eligible.

Neither are natural born Citizens.

29 posted on 10/02/2015 12:31:51 PM PDT by Godebert
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To: Godebert

Trolls get zotted.


30 posted on 10/02/2015 12:33:04 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (TED CRUZ. You can help: https://donate.tedcruz.org/c/FBTX0095/)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

31 posted on 10/02/2015 12:35:07 PM PDT by Godebert
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To: Godebert; Jim Robinson

Begone, troll.


32 posted on 10/02/2015 12:38:35 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (TED CRUZ. You can help: https://donate.tedcruz.org/c/FBTX0095/)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Coward.


33 posted on 10/02/2015 12:39:51 PM PDT by Godebert
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To: conservativejoy

I am a Cuban-American. I would like Cruz to be President. But neither Cruz nor Rubio will have enough broad appeal to win the nomination. TRUMP WILL WIN the nomination.


34 posted on 10/02/2015 12:40:02 PM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yep I see this boiling down to Cruz vs Rubio.


35 posted on 10/02/2015 12:40:33 PM PDT by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, & R)
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To: Godebert; Jim Robinson

I didn’t call him the first time, but you persisted.


36 posted on 10/02/2015 12:40:48 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (TED CRUZ. You can help: https://donate.tedcruz.org/c/FBTX0095/)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

These folks need to examine their premises.
Trump is not fading and the slowdown in his polling number is simply the fact that that there are not many more voters left to convert.


37 posted on 10/02/2015 12:41:53 PM PDT by Little Ray (How did I end up in this hand basket, and why is it getting so hot?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I have said it before...the primary from this point on will be a matter of winning over the supporters of those who drop out.

I do not think that a Rand Paul supporter will join the Trump side.

I do not think that a Christie supporter will join the Trump side.

Trump’s road to the nomination will now be convincing these orphaned supporters to join his side.

This likely explains his increasing focus on the issues and less on calling his opponents names.


38 posted on 10/02/2015 12:54:56 PM PDT by Crusher138 ("Then conquer we must, for our cause it is just")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Trump isn’t going to fade, and Rubio is a joke.


39 posted on 10/02/2015 12:55:01 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: Crusher138
I do not think that a Rand Paul supporter will join the Trump side.

I do not think that a Christie supporter will join the Trump side.

Trump’s road to the nomination will now be convincing these orphaned supporters to join his side.


That would be his ideal, but the same rules that were designed to help a John Ellis Bush win the nomination with 30% support can be used by Trump towards the same end. Fiorina and Carson have no reason to dro out, and Carson's support has been surprisingly firm. He has also raised enough real money to remain a presence throughout. Just as it is silly to simply posit that Trump will fade, I am no longer comfortable assuming Carson will fade.
40 posted on 10/02/2015 1:05:02 PM PDT by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics)
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