Posted on 09/20/2015 6:11:05 PM PDT by WilliamIII
Real estate mogul Trump has widened his lead to 20 points in a brand new Zogby Analytics poll taken after the second Republican presidential debate. The new poll of 405 likely Republican primary/caucus voters nationwide with a margin of sampling error of +/- 5.0 percentage points, conducted September 18-19, shows Mr. Trump with 33% (up 2 points from his pre-debate 31%). In second place is neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson who actually dropped 3 points to 13%.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
Look at that face!
The trend in all these polls are the same...Trump leading by a substantial margin, Carson slipping, Walker cratering, Carly increasing but nothing near what the media is shilling, and Yeb continuing to suck...
IIRC, it was 2000? I looked online & found this, which says he was good in 1996 & 2000, and lousy in 2004: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/220536/voters-vs-zogby-williumrex
True, but the whole point of statistics is to get around the problem that you often can't know the quality of individual samples within your sample set. The larger the sample size the less effect outliers will have on the result. A sample size of 405 voters out of 300 million people, given that each voter has fifteen candidates to pick from, is a pretty weak poll.
Ehh... not really, she had a lot of help from Tapper. In fact the very first question was to her, a bottom tier candidate averaging just 3.3% of polling. Our course, the question was about Trump, providing an CNN engineered opportunity for confrontation between Carly and Trump. At one point Bush , Walker, and Kasich were all trying to respond to Christie ..but Dana Bash choose Carly. This happened over and over again. Point is CNN helped a lot.
So, she MAY have won the debate but she had the refs on her side. Most everything else you said I agree..but I'll add Trump has not been damaged at all. In fact one may count him the actual winner since Carson is no longer on Trumps heels and the space between 1st and 2nd has widened.
And my statement was accurate; that image had absolutely nothing to do with this "poll".
I’m going to tell you something and you will never be able to not notice this about Carly Fiorina ever again.
She always tilts her head 10% to one side. It’s a gimmick.
Sorry in advance.
For your enlightenment, then:
Firstly, “8 per state” is ridiculous from the get-go because it’s not a state-by-state poll. It’s a national poll. 405 from a population is a quite substantial sample (sampling error +/- 5% in this case) for any size population. It’s also pretty much standard for primary polling. For example, the sample size for the latest CNN poll was 444. For the latest CBS/NYT, it was 376. For Monmouth, it was 366. In other words, this is just a regular ol’ poll. How many people do you think pollsters actually poll, anyway? What is your MOE standard to make a poll “a poll”, and do you realize how many people you’d have to call just for that little bit of improvement in confidence?
nicckarowaybot is tht you?
How do you get color in your posts?
As pointed out above, the polls are all in general agreement.
Trump leads big.
Career politicians are going nowhere so far.
what's shocking is, I think I'm in agreement with every one of his positions
Agree. I don’t trust CNN polls. I never did from day 1.
The 8 per state was clearly rhetorical, and you know that.
As for the sample size of 405 being substantial, it depends on how many choices are being offered. With 15 names on the ballot 405 is nowhere near large enough.
Bookmark
Ummmm....NO.
This poll is consistant with the NBC poll that was also released today.
Again I am no fan of Fiorina, but almost every other post debate poll has Fiorina at much higher than 7%.
Everybody “nailed” the last election. What’s great about that?
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