Zogby Poll: Trump Widens Lead After GOP Debate

Forbes ^ | Sep 20 2015 | John Zogby

[WilliamIII]

Real estate mogul Trump has widened his lead to 20 points in a brand new Zogby Analytics poll taken after the second Republican presidential debate. The new poll of 405 likely Republican primary/caucus voters nationwide with a margin of sampling error of +/- 5.0 percentage points, conducted September 18-19, shows Mr. Trump with 33% (up 2 points from his pre-debate 31%). In second place is neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson who actually dropped 3 points to 13%.

[Future Snake Eater]

Only 405 people, but they’re also likely R voters. Very interesting.

[South40]

Zogby nailed the last presidential election also.

If "nailed" means they predicted Obama would win reelection than most people I know "nailed" it also.

Did you believe Romney was going to win?

[firebrand]

There was a straw poll at the club where I saw the debate. At the end of the meeting, Trump had won. But when we got the email, Carly had won. < sound of marbles rolling around in head >

[BigEdLB]

The Trump Carson Bush numbers are between morning consult and nbc. Fiorina is low. To be consistent she would not be behind jebby. But the other numbers jive

[AAABEST]

Zogby is as unreliable now as it ever was. It’s interesting that some have lost sight of that fact simply because the results of this “poll” are to their liking.

Here's another post debate poll from NBC that shows pretty much the same thing.

Might not be to your liking though.

[BobL]

Damn that was a GREAT SUMMARY. Completely agree...totally.

[Maelstorm]

thx!

[Hugin]

It’s definitely getting harder to do accurate polls. People don’t have land lines, and don’t answer calls like they used to. But in broad terms they are valid. I think Trump has somewhere between a quarter and a third of Republican voters. When one poll is huge outlier something is wrong with their sample. No way did Trump lose a third of his supporters since the debate.

[Sequoyah101]

Exactly. That is a statistically valid poll? Im in for Trump but 400 people?

[867V309]

Zogby is as unreliable now as it ever was. It’s interesting that some have lost sight of that fact simply because the results of this “poll” are to their liking.

All of the polls are as unreliable now as it ever.

This, however, is not:

[tennmountainman]

Oh my. How could this be?

Trump was supposed to implode by now.

[GOPJ]

LOL - I’d be impressed but most journalists can’t do math...

[South40]

No, I don't believe NBC polls either; I don't believe any polls. Most conservatives don't and you should be embarrassed to admit you do.

I'm sure this won't be to your liking. This organization rated polling firms and Zogby consistantly rated the worst.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/pollster-ratings-v40-results/

[BobL]

“No way did Trump lose a third of his supporters since the debate.”

I agree...if Trump did that bad, I’d expect to see at least a few postings here from people fed up with him - I still haven’t seen ANY SIGN of Trump losing any of his supporters.

[South40]

Exactly. That is a statistically valid poll? Im in for Trump but 400 people?

Yes, 400 people.

Polls are historically unreliable with internet polls being the worst. It's human nature for normally rationally thinking Americans to cite a poll they like in complete disregard to the well-known fact that these polls are historically unreliable.

[Red Steel]

Then there is the Morning Consult poll.

The adult and animal poll by CNN is the outlier.

[BlackFemaleArmyColonel]

Where’s Carly?

[South40]

How strange and desperate of you. That image has absolutely nothing to do with this poll.

[sockhead]

Assessing the validity/accuracy of pollsters like Zogby depends on if you are looking at their numbers throughout the entire campaign cycle, or their final predictions for the elections results.

I do not trust any of them until right before election day.

[SeeSharp]

You should have paid more attention. Your reaction was idiotic.

Resorting to personal insults usually means you don't have an argument. I notice you didn't make one.