"Who this Bernie Sanders?
This nomination was promised to ME!
Obama promised!
It's supposed to be MY turn!"
Posted on 09/13/2015 11:06:56 AM PDT by SamAdams76
The first wave of the YouGov/CBS News Battleground Tracker polled primary and caucus voters from both parties in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina
Hillary Clinton’s deficit among likely Democratic primary voters New Hampshire has grown to more than 20 points, while her lead over Bernie Sanders among likely caucus voters in Iowa has been reversed, according to the first wave of the YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker. Clinton remains ahead in South Carolina, where Joe Biden also makes a strong showing.
IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
The new poll finds Sen. Sanders with 52% support among Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, while former Secretary of State Clinton, long considered the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic nomination, receives 30%. Recent polls have shown Sanders’ lead growing in the Granite State, but this would be the first to show the Vermont Senator over 50%.
Possibly more worrying for the Clinton campaign is her performance in Iowa, where Sanders now leads by 10 points, with 43% to Clinton’s 33%.
Until recently Clinton had retained an edge in Iowa, the other first-in-the-nation voting state along with New Hampshire. A recent CNN/ORC poll found the pair tied among likely Iowa caucus voters.
SOUTH CAROLINA
Vice President Joe Biden, who is rumored to be considering a run for the White House in 2016, receives only 10% support from Democrats in Iowa and 9% in New Hampshire placing him third in both states. Biden’s best performance is in South Carolina, where he has the backing of 22% of Democratic primary voters, matching Sanders’ 23%. Yet Clinton remains firmly in the lead there with 46% support.
While Democrats Iowa and New Hampshire are overwhelmingly white, South Carolina is the first early state with a significant minority population – over half of likely Democratic primary voters in the Palmetto State are African-American, a group with whom Clinton retains strong support. Indeed Sanders has a narrow lead over Clinton among white North Carolina Democrats (46%-39%), but trails Clinton by 48 points among blacks.
Another demographic with whom Clinton has received disproportionate support is with women, and that mostly remains the case here. Clinton's support is 7 points higher among Iowa women than men. The gender gap is larger in New Hampshire (12 points) and insignificant in South Carolina (4 points). By contrast, Bernie Sanders performs particularly well with Democratic men – though Clinton trails by only 11 points among women in New Hampshire she trails by a mammoth 38 points among men.
The YouGov/CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is based on surveys of registered voters who had previously voted in primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. The poll was conducted online but included registered voters who were contacted by phone. The sample includes 548 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, 528 in South Carolina, and 646 likely caucus voters in Iowa. See a more detailed description of the methodology used here.
THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION: IT’S STILL TRUMP
On the GOP side, Donald Trump continues to soar. But according to the poll, the outspoken billionaire is now joined in the top tier by another candidate from beyond the Beltway – former neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
In Iowa, a quarter of likely Republican caucus voters tap Ben Carson as their top choice for the GOP nomination, putting him only 4 points behind Donald Trump. Accounting for respondents' second choice preferences, Carsion actually leads Trump narrowly.
Carson also comes in a strong second in South Carolina, where 21% of likely Republican primary voters back him and 36% back Trump. Sen. Ted Cruz is a distant third with 6%.
Trump’s most substantial lead is in New Hampshire, where he has the support of 40% of likely Republican primary voters. Carson comes in second again, but by a much greater distance, with only 12% support and a smattering of other candidates close behind him, including John Kasich at 9% and Carly Fiorina at 8%. Jeb Bush, who led most polls in New Hampshire throughout the early summer, is tied for fifth with Rand Paul, at 6%.
NON-POLITICIANS ON TOP
Notably, three of the top four candidates in New Hampshire have never held elected office (John Kasich, Ohio’s governor, is the exception) and in all three early states polled the majority of Republicans back one of two “non-politicians” – Trump or Carson – with every other candidate in single digits. Data elsewhere in the poll sheds some light on the phenomenon. Asked which one of four candidate qualities is most important to deciding their vote, Republican voters cited experience “getting things done” in the private sector more often than political acumen in all three states.
Rick Perry dropped out of the Republican race the day after the fieldwork for this poll was completed. It appears unlikely, however, that his exclusion would have had a significant impact on these findings; the former Texas governor never received more than 1% of first-choice preferences in any of the three states polled.
The Republican portion of the sample includes 610 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, 1002 in South Carolina, and 705 likely caucus voters in Iowa.
Good to see Hillary sinking in the polls.
Has there ever been a more dour, more joyless campaign, than the 2008 and current presidential campaigns of Hillary???
Has there ever been a more joyless, robotic person with no personality running for office, than Hillary??
Has there ever been a candidate with such a sense of entitlement running for office????? Well, maybe some of the Kennedy family are in that category, as we have seen Kennedy after Kennedy run for various elected offices.
Bill tried to cheer up Hillary this morning by reminding her that Nelson Mandela wasn’t elected president until after he had served 27 years in prison.
Well if Bernie the perverted socialist gets the nod, I cant lose.
If Trump wins, I’ll by happy.
If Bernie wins, I’ll be so drunk for those four years I wont know what going on.
I’m not sure how a retired surgeon became a competitor for republican nomination. But hey, that’s what makes America great.
But I dont want him to get the nomination.
Carson is up due to the GOPe’s Operation Chaos.
I can't think of one, though I would say the Jebbie Bush campaign is pretty much a drag also.
Even if Clinton was not such an evil person, there is zero passion in that campaign. No fire in the belly whatsoever. All her life, she has ridden the coattails of her husband and had no achievements on her own. She actually feels she is entitled to the presidency as a reward for playing the "good wife" while her husband cheated with other women.
A horrible example to other women.
We will eventually have a woman president and hopefully it will be a woman who actually earned her way there on her own merits. (And may we someday also have a black president who is worthy of the job.)
However, WaPo and their abc toadies say that Clinton has this one in the bag and that we shouldn’t even bother voting. Let’s just begin the coronation now.
Sanders has the chavez/maduro/nieto/47% bottom feeder vote.
Trump needs to get at least the other 48% to win.
If he doesn’t, the next election will ensure that we turn into a third world fascist shihole like mexico, and devolve into civil war, which is what all of the ruling class in DC, K street, and wall st. are pushing for.
This is the best summer I’ve had since I was a kid.
The Democrats can’t support Hillary because she’s a criminal and traitor.
They can’t make her quit, because then Hillary loses the “This Is Just Politics Defense” and stands before the court and opens up the whole Democrat Party to criminal investigation.
Good one! But Bill is probably thinking about all the women he can bed during those 27 years. Not that this stops him now but at least he won't have to have his secret service people keep a lookout for her secret service people.
The outcome of that election will result in either the rebirth of American exceptionalism or it will officially sound the death knell of our 240 year old nation.
It will be a historical election that will literally decide our future as a nation.
That’s funny. Going with truth is stranger than fiction, here’s hoping it happens.
No, I'm not saying I prefer Sanders. But I think he's less sold out and more of an independent thinker than hillary is.
And just imagine Trump vs Sanders debates!
LOL
I seem to recall reading that he was strong on military.
But when he talks about too many deodorants and somehow links that to poverty, he loses me BIG.
That’s why I say Trump vs Sanders debates would be amazing.
He's the only one guaranteed to lose against cankles.
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