Posted on 08/01/2015 8:34:20 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
I consider myself more an activist than a politico. That said, I’ve worked on campaigns and have a good understanding of what makes them tick. I’ve worked on city level races, county races, federal house races, a senate and a Gubernatorial race.
Some things are always unpredictable. But others are always predictable. Inevitably, there are candidates whose fans/followers believe that through sheer will their candidate can and will win. I watched this happen with Sharon Angle in Nevada, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Doug Hoffman in New York. There are many, many other examples of it over just the past six years.
You have an “insurgent” candidate who captures the hearts and minds of those loyal to principle over party, but the candidate ignores the basic fundamentals of campaigning and pays for it dearly. Sure, candidates like Trump, Palin and Angle have fans who will crawl over glass to help them. When it came to Angle I was one of those fans. I know Angle personally. I knew here when she was an Assemblywoman in Nevada’s 26th AD in Northwest Reno. I knocked doors with her to push her Prop 13 ballot initiative. I then volunteered for an eventually worked for her run against Dean Heller (then Secretary of State) for Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District. And I was invited to her campaign’s special hotel suite in Vegas as it was announced that she had won the Senate primary, shocking the political realm and handing Sue Lowden a stunning defeat.
Angle then went on to suffer a huge defeat by Harry Reid. One that left her supporters with their faces in their hands, confused as to what happened and how it happened.
No doubt Reid’s political machine used some questionable tactics. No doubt there was fraud involved. But ultimately Reid’s campaign flanked Angle at every turn. It didn’t matter how dedicated and determined Angle’s team was because Reid had the money, the network, the players and the infrastructure needed to outgun Angle in every way possible.
A Presidential campaign is certainly an entirely different animal in terms of scope and scale. Running a statewide campaign is a beast in and of itself. But running 50 statewide campaigns simultaneously is a whole different kind of monster.
Take Florida, for example. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has reportedly decided to somewhat sit out the Florida primary. This move, in my view, is the right move and only logical move their team can make.
Why? Because Florida is very, VERY expensive. Florida is a massive state covering multiple expensive media markets. To give you an idea, the Romney campaign spent more than $11,000,000 on ads alone in 2012. That doesn’t include the pro-Romney Super PAC outfits. Nor does it include what Romney had to spend to have staff, offices and GOTV infrastructure in place in virtually every county in Florida.
Both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio have run statewide campaigns in Florida. Both already have a statewide foundation to build on. They know the county chairmen/women, they know the organizers, they know who ran the show for them locally before, they know where to get the deals on GOTV infrastructure and they know who they need to be friendly with vs who they need to ignore.
Why would Scott Walker spend millions trying to compete with that when, in all honesty, he can’t win there? Walker is right to pass on Florida. It’s not that he’s going to ignore Florida voters, but he’s certainly going to keep his powder dry and save his big guns for states where he can actually win. Which, in all honesty, is about every state outside of Florida. I mean, outside of Florida, what other state is a guaranteed win for Jeb Bush?
Yeah, let me know when you figure that one out.
Getting back to Trump…
As Newt Gingrich showed us, a lead in the polls is irrelevant if you can’t build campaign infrastructure and get voters to the polls and/or caucuses. And, as Newt so painfully learned, if you’re not prepared for the carpet-bombing of attack ads that will come your way, you’re toast.
And if you think the negative ads that destroyed Gingrich were, bad, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. If I were a coms consultant for an anti-Trump Super PAC or campaign I would be licking my chops right now. Trump supported late abortion, used eminent domain for his business gain, supported universal healthcare and spread around money to the most liberal of liberal Democrat candidates.
Now on a personal level I agree with Sarah Palin’s perspective of Trump’s background and positions.
Shouts of, “But he donated to Democrats!” won’t sway Trump enthusiasts. The man built a skyscraper in New York City – of course, he had donated to Democrats. If he was building it in Salt Lake City, I’m sure he would have donated to Republicans. “But he changed his mind on positions!” Reagan had been an FDR Democrat. Should we hold that against him or be grateful he saw the light?
Well, that’s a part of the story. Yes, Trump enthusiasts won’t be swayed. But don’t underestimate the power of the old school social club known as the GOP establishment’s ability to command and control the primary/caucus game.
I’ve seen this first hand. Up close and personal. Conservatives, libertarians and “plugged in” independents tend to be aware of what’s happening year round, regardless of whether or not it’s an election year. But the older ladies wearing sparkly GOP hats and the men in suits with the fancy elephant pins on their collars don’t fully plug in until a couple months out. And when they do, they bring enormous persuasion to the process. Because those people are the party’s county chairs. Those people each bring 50 more people with them to the table. Those are the people who show up out of nowhere and dictate who the more “electable” and “next in line” candidate is. And election after election those people defeat the insurgent candidate when the rest of us think we might have finally solved the puzzle.
Now I’ll admit Donald Trump brings a certain anomaly into the mix. Trump has some extraordinary abilities that Herman Cain and Ron Paul never had. If Trump were positioned like Herman Cain was last time around and team Obama hit him with dirty accusations about his marriage, Trump would simply tell the media to pound sand. And he would back that attitude up with millions of his own dollars to re-enforce said statements.
No doubt, Trump brings a new level of fight to an ugly battle. But don’t for a second think the party bosses and their armies aren’t ready for it. Their playbook is effective and entirely predictable.
The big business, pro-Bush Super PAC are going to unleash an unholy barrage of ads on Trump that will have people who casually pay attention scared to death of Trump as a political leader. And while they initiate this scorched earth political bombing of Trump, the Bush campaign will be running ads that establish him as a “safe” former Governor who cut some taxes and knows how to be a polished leader.
While the pro-Trump groups should be defining Bush for what he really is… a big government, big business hack who will do virtually nothing to slow the massive expansion of government. A political machine that favors government over liberty. A guy who will continue the rotting of American sovereignty in favor of global order. A politician who will do nothing to secure our borders and will help the continuation of the invasion because it pads the pockets of his big corporate benefactors. The pro-Trump entities will instead be stuck in a never-ending position of defense, scrambling to convince the casual crowd that Trump isn’t evil and is looking out for their best interests.
If you think this won’t be the case then you don’t understand how the machine works. Trump can certainly redefine how certain parts of the game are played, but he can’t redefine the entire game.
Trump’s campaign and supporters need to think beyond today and fast. Right now Trump operates almost entirely in the 24 hour media cycle. It’s a strategy that is proving wildly effective in the short term. But it’s a strategy that in many ways isn’t prepared for what’s to come.
My advice to Trump’s army of supporters is simple. You need to relax on preaching to the choir. Trump is doing a fantastic job on that front. What you need to be doing is finding out who your county GOP chair is, who the establishment activists are, and you need to cordially and politely be warming up to them. Then, you need to be in the meetings, the social events and gatherings helping them all understand why Trump could work for America.
Don’t be like the Ron Paul fans. The Paul crowd ridiculed and mocked the party bosses, which ended up hurting Paul in the long term. Instead of converting minds, the Paul fans just pushed minds further away, making the party establishment resent them in every way possible.
Don’t try and hide Trump’s past political sins. Instead, embrace them and help others understand that even Reagan himself had similar sins. Trump represents a great American story. One of many failures, but one that used those failures to learn success. One that had a man in the heart of big government liberal policies (New York) who emerged a financial mega-star through hard-headed maneuvering and powerful management skill.
America is done with shiny politicians. We’re over the political lies and promises. We’re ready for a bull in a China shop and Trump can be that bull.
Unfortunately, there is still one hell of a roadblock in place and it’s called the GOP establishment. Trump is right to engage in combat with the establishment. But at some point the Trump train will need to use the establishment’s tracks. Blowing up those tracks isn’t the answer on the long term front. Because in doing so the establishment will quickly build a bypass for the Bush train.
Mark my words…
Bingo!
Not Trump. Trump is all “show”
>>The GOPe says Trump will be out by Iowa. They should be careful how they get rid of Trump.<<
Those in the GOP who think Trump will fade, and that includes me, are just forecasting, not threatening. Trump is bombastic enough that he will continue to say things that put him on the spot because he doesn’t have a consistent track record to fall back on for support. He’s been all over the lot in the past when it comes to basic principles. In other words, he’ll get rid of himself, with some help from the other candidates who take issue with his more outrageous statements.
Take Walker’s response to Trump’s disparaging comments on Wisconsin, for example, which was essentially that Trump was using Democrat talking points. That was accurate, and Trump’s claims were inaccurate. “He’s using Democrat talking points” is an effective way to sum up the entire situation which was that Trump was lying about Wisconsin (Dems lie), that he was attacking a GOP candidate with lies (like Dems always do), and that he couldn’t be trusted (what Dems are?). All in one quick talking point that also reminds people that Trump has aligned with Dems in the past.
That sort of thing is going to happen a lot because Trump can’t help but say things that are simply untrue when he gets going, even though he also says a lot of things that people want to hear today. He will be called on every single instance, particularly when he’s aiming at other GOP candidates, most of whom have more conservative track records than Trump, by a long shot. And their responses will be what eventually “takes Trump down,” not the leaders of the national party. The ultimate takedown will be by voters as they learn more and more about both Trump’s history and can’t match it up to what he’s saying today.
NOT a Trump fan at all, but like the GOPe even less.
They will do all that they can to get him out of the race as fast as they can. The Koch Brothers are NOT enjoying Trump one bit. That is the one thing I am quite enjoying about his candidacy, he is driving the other candidates, the GOPe and their Koch Owners insane.
2016 prediction bump for later.....
“I think his point was that in spite of winning the nomination of their party in the primaries, the RNC still torpedoed the candidates in the general.”
That’s a fair point. We’ll see how that goes. They also did that to Oliver North, by running a 3rd Party Republican to make sure he didn’t get into the Senate.
But Trump has money and a voice and has shown that he WILL use both.
You just proved that Trump is so smart. He takes advantage of the stupid foreign trade deals made by professional politicians. He sees it first hand because he does tremendous amount of business all over the world. He knows more about foreign trade than all other candidates combined, who have no business experience with foreign countries except perhaps Fiorina.
Why I can’t more people do the same as Trump and become a Billionaire?
IIRC every one of them took the apology train.
Sharon Angle was mostly defeated by the Democrat/Mafia consortium.
Nobody was going to take out Reid... and live to serve.
Additionally none of those candidates had the money to buy time to counter the MSM machine.
I have no ability to call in political favors or seize other peoples property for two reasons.
bfl
THIS is the insight.
The county chairs are the GOPe.
a man with his power and money MUST have something In his past that the media will dig up and take him down politically with
I will be shocked if the media can’t find something- but you’re right- it’s going to get very ugly
What this guy doesn’t get is that you can’t kill a dead body. Trump cannot harm the GOPe because it is already dead. He can only perform a miracle and bring it back to life or have no effect at all. This is a win - break even situation. What’s the down side of letting Dr. Trump take a look at the corpse?
I agree with most of what you say. Trump will eventually self destruct, but let the process take care of itself. After the debates, and as people start listening more carefully, he’ll be gone. Right now, it’s quite entertaining. Just don’t let him do too much damage. If the GOPe comes down too heavy handed, however, it could aggravate the disaffection for the party leadership. Insulting the voters is a giant mistake too.
[Trump MUST keep his security very tight.]
Pray for a shield of protection around TRUMP and TED CRUZ as well.
My understanding at least in the early primary states is that Trump has as good or better campaign infrastructure as any other candidate.
Donald Trump is a big name in Florida. He has Maralaga and Doral. His name is a household word in Fla. It will not be so easy to “Newt” him. A lot of people in Fla hate Jeb Bush for the Terri Shiavo nightmare.
Trump will also have the money run negative ads agains’t Jebbie. Not to mention all the free TV time he wants.
If it were only contributions to NY dems, I’d understand. But Reid and Pelosi, and the dem party itself???
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