Posted on 08/01/2015 8:34:20 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
I consider myself more an activist than a politico. That said, I’ve worked on campaigns and have a good understanding of what makes them tick. I’ve worked on city level races, county races, federal house races, a senate and a Gubernatorial race.
Some things are always unpredictable. But others are always predictable. Inevitably, there are candidates whose fans/followers believe that through sheer will their candidate can and will win. I watched this happen with Sharon Angle in Nevada, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Doug Hoffman in New York. There are many, many other examples of it over just the past six years.
You have an “insurgent” candidate who captures the hearts and minds of those loyal to principle over party, but the candidate ignores the basic fundamentals of campaigning and pays for it dearly. Sure, candidates like Trump, Palin and Angle have fans who will crawl over glass to help them. When it came to Angle I was one of those fans. I know Angle personally. I knew here when she was an Assemblywoman in Nevada’s 26th AD in Northwest Reno. I knocked doors with her to push her Prop 13 ballot initiative. I then volunteered for an eventually worked for her run against Dean Heller (then Secretary of State) for Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District. And I was invited to her campaign’s special hotel suite in Vegas as it was announced that she had won the Senate primary, shocking the political realm and handing Sue Lowden a stunning defeat.
Angle then went on to suffer a huge defeat by Harry Reid. One that left her supporters with their faces in their hands, confused as to what happened and how it happened.
No doubt Reid’s political machine used some questionable tactics. No doubt there was fraud involved. But ultimately Reid’s campaign flanked Angle at every turn. It didn’t matter how dedicated and determined Angle’s team was because Reid had the money, the network, the players and the infrastructure needed to outgun Angle in every way possible.
A Presidential campaign is certainly an entirely different animal in terms of scope and scale. Running a statewide campaign is a beast in and of itself. But running 50 statewide campaigns simultaneously is a whole different kind of monster.
Take Florida, for example. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has reportedly decided to somewhat sit out the Florida primary. This move, in my view, is the right move and only logical move their team can make.
Why? Because Florida is very, VERY expensive. Florida is a massive state covering multiple expensive media markets. To give you an idea, the Romney campaign spent more than $11,000,000 on ads alone in 2012. That doesn’t include the pro-Romney Super PAC outfits. Nor does it include what Romney had to spend to have staff, offices and GOTV infrastructure in place in virtually every county in Florida.
Both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio have run statewide campaigns in Florida. Both already have a statewide foundation to build on. They know the county chairmen/women, they know the organizers, they know who ran the show for them locally before, they know where to get the deals on GOTV infrastructure and they know who they need to be friendly with vs who they need to ignore.
Why would Scott Walker spend millions trying to compete with that when, in all honesty, he can’t win there? Walker is right to pass on Florida. It’s not that he’s going to ignore Florida voters, but he’s certainly going to keep his powder dry and save his big guns for states where he can actually win. Which, in all honesty, is about every state outside of Florida. I mean, outside of Florida, what other state is a guaranteed win for Jeb Bush?
Yeah, let me know when you figure that one out.
Getting back to Trump…
As Newt Gingrich showed us, a lead in the polls is irrelevant if you can’t build campaign infrastructure and get voters to the polls and/or caucuses. And, as Newt so painfully learned, if you’re not prepared for the carpet-bombing of attack ads that will come your way, you’re toast.
And if you think the negative ads that destroyed Gingrich were, bad, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. If I were a coms consultant for an anti-Trump Super PAC or campaign I would be licking my chops right now. Trump supported late abortion, used eminent domain for his business gain, supported universal healthcare and spread around money to the most liberal of liberal Democrat candidates.
Now on a personal level I agree with Sarah Palin’s perspective of Trump’s background and positions.
Shouts of, “But he donated to Democrats!” won’t sway Trump enthusiasts. The man built a skyscraper in New York City – of course, he had donated to Democrats. If he was building it in Salt Lake City, I’m sure he would have donated to Republicans. “But he changed his mind on positions!” Reagan had been an FDR Democrat. Should we hold that against him or be grateful he saw the light?
Well, that’s a part of the story. Yes, Trump enthusiasts won’t be swayed. But don’t underestimate the power of the old school social club known as the GOP establishment’s ability to command and control the primary/caucus game.
I’ve seen this first hand. Up close and personal. Conservatives, libertarians and “plugged in” independents tend to be aware of what’s happening year round, regardless of whether or not it’s an election year. But the older ladies wearing sparkly GOP hats and the men in suits with the fancy elephant pins on their collars don’t fully plug in until a couple months out. And when they do, they bring enormous persuasion to the process. Because those people are the party’s county chairs. Those people each bring 50 more people with them to the table. Those are the people who show up out of nowhere and dictate who the more “electable” and “next in line” candidate is. And election after election those people defeat the insurgent candidate when the rest of us think we might have finally solved the puzzle.
Now I’ll admit Donald Trump brings a certain anomaly into the mix. Trump has some extraordinary abilities that Herman Cain and Ron Paul never had. If Trump were positioned like Herman Cain was last time around and team Obama hit him with dirty accusations about his marriage, Trump would simply tell the media to pound sand. And he would back that attitude up with millions of his own dollars to re-enforce said statements.
No doubt, Trump brings a new level of fight to an ugly battle. But don’t for a second think the party bosses and their armies aren’t ready for it. Their playbook is effective and entirely predictable.
The big business, pro-Bush Super PAC are going to unleash an unholy barrage of ads on Trump that will have people who casually pay attention scared to death of Trump as a political leader. And while they initiate this scorched earth political bombing of Trump, the Bush campaign will be running ads that establish him as a “safe” former Governor who cut some taxes and knows how to be a polished leader.
While the pro-Trump groups should be defining Bush for what he really is… a big government, big business hack who will do virtually nothing to slow the massive expansion of government. A political machine that favors government over liberty. A guy who will continue the rotting of American sovereignty in favor of global order. A politician who will do nothing to secure our borders and will help the continuation of the invasion because it pads the pockets of his big corporate benefactors. The pro-Trump entities will instead be stuck in a never-ending position of defense, scrambling to convince the casual crowd that Trump isn’t evil and is looking out for their best interests.
If you think this won’t be the case then you don’t understand how the machine works. Trump can certainly redefine how certain parts of the game are played, but he can’t redefine the entire game.
Trump’s campaign and supporters need to think beyond today and fast. Right now Trump operates almost entirely in the 24 hour media cycle. It’s a strategy that is proving wildly effective in the short term. But it’s a strategy that in many ways isn’t prepared for what’s to come.
My advice to Trump’s army of supporters is simple. You need to relax on preaching to the choir. Trump is doing a fantastic job on that front. What you need to be doing is finding out who your county GOP chair is, who the establishment activists are, and you need to cordially and politely be warming up to them. Then, you need to be in the meetings, the social events and gatherings helping them all understand why Trump could work for America.
Don’t be like the Ron Paul fans. The Paul crowd ridiculed and mocked the party bosses, which ended up hurting Paul in the long term. Instead of converting minds, the Paul fans just pushed minds further away, making the party establishment resent them in every way possible.
Don’t try and hide Trump’s past political sins. Instead, embrace them and help others understand that even Reagan himself had similar sins. Trump represents a great American story. One of many failures, but one that used those failures to learn success. One that had a man in the heart of big government liberal policies (New York) who emerged a financial mega-star through hard-headed maneuvering and powerful management skill.
America is done with shiny politicians. We’re over the political lies and promises. We’re ready for a bull in a China shop and Trump can be that bull.
Unfortunately, there is still one hell of a roadblock in place and it’s called the GOP establishment. Trump is right to engage in combat with the establishment. But at some point the Trump train will need to use the establishment’s tracks. Blowing up those tracks isn’t the answer on the long term front. Because in doing so the establishment will quickly build a bypass for the Bush train.
Mark my words…
What I can't figure out about those who say it was fraud that got Reid reelected in 2010, is why didn't they produce enough fraud to get Reid's son elected Governor of Nevada on the same ballot?
Fox right now with Eric Bolling?? Cashin’ In is the name of the show, more Trump to come. He’s speaking well.
What a load of crap.
Play dirty. Play foul. Continue to preach what people want to hear, even when you know it’s unrealistic. That’s the Chicago way. And that way, which is a putrid way to elect officials, is the new norm.
The GOPe says Trump will be out by Iowa. They should be careful how they get rid of Trump. It going to turn a lot of people off. Those people aren’t going to vote for Jeb Bush.
This was a good article, thanks for posting.
HOWEVER: The basis for the entire article is that the GOPe establishment is too strong to beat. Hence the only way to win is to infiltrate the political establishment first, and THEN win.
Been there, done that. We've been trying to do just that for many years. It hasn't worked, and won't work.
As Albert Einstein said: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result.
Based on Einstein's definition, it's insanity to think we can infiltrate the GOPe and win.
With abnormally weak candidates for both parties, this may be the year a third party can actually win. It won't be easy, but it's the only option on the table. It's worth a try.
On what planet is Trump loyal to principles? What principles are those? Because they are not conservative principles.
People are deluding themselves.
“Unfortunately, there is still one hell of a roadblock in place and it’s called the GOP establishment. Trump is right to engage in combat with the establishment. But at some point the Trump train will need to use the establishment’s tracks. Blowing up those tracks isn’t the answer on the long term front. Because in doing so the establishment will quickly build a bypass for the Bush train.”
That’s what just blows the minds of most politcal pundits and the establishment political machines. They just can’t get their head around the fact that Trump doesn’t need anybody’s “tracks”. He’s able to build his own and say “to ‘ell with em!.”
Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!
As a survivor of the Cochran scorched earth campaign in MS I have to agree. Won't be voting for Jebbie. Or anyone that hired Brad Dayspring.
Yes. This is a good article, thanks for posting it.
It's the political consultants (men who take a percentage of all the TV AD money - for both parties) that want to take out Trump.
And that's why we have to see past the attacks they'll make on him...
My concern is that Trump is treating conservatives like chumps. He will stay just long enough to drive conservative candidates out and then leave the campaign. I’m not saying this will happen, but it is my fear that this will happen.
INCREDIBLE.
He mentions Sharron Angle and O’Donnell as examples of people The Establishment opposed, which is certainly true, but he doesn’t explain how either of them still WON THE NOMINATION - which is the crux of this article.
How about Cruz? He was HATED by The Establishment when he ran for Senate, but showed that he was more than up to the job. Similar for Rubio...although in a twisted way. The establishment did not want Rubio at all, as he certainly campaigned as a conservative - they wanted Orange Man, but Rubio did win and now he’s The Establishment’s lap dog.
He mentions Newt, who flamed out. Newt was TOTAL FLAKE from the day he became House Speaker (before that, he seemed rather conservative and steady). Newt acting weird was nothing new. As for 2012, Newt had NO MONEY...on that I can agree with him, if you have no money, you can’t fight back. Trump is different - of course he has money, but since announcing he has not done a SINGLE THING to anger conservatives - about the closest he came was getting a bit squishy about the Illegals already here - something that no one else is bothering to address either. Newt was flakey and broke from the day he entered national politics, he was the EXACT OPPOSITE of Trump.
agreed. If Trump continues with the momentum and the GOPe doesn’t want to recognize it, I say screw it. I don’t buy the story third party gives the race to Hillary. And I was voting during the Perot time...different circumstances. Too early and not the right candidate and the Clintons were not as widely known as they are now. With the attitude of the electorate and candidates the GOPe have put up that we’re basically being told to once again hold our noses and vote, now may be the time for a new party. The Whigs were once a party that outlived their usefulness, too.
In all honesty, people are supporting Trump because of what Bush is not because of who Trump is. Trump is just the biggest club available.
I think his point was that in spite of winning the nomination of their party in the primaries, the RNC still torpedoed the candidates in the general. Because they’d (the RNC) a democrat win than a conservative.
They did the same thing to Bret Schundler in NJ gubernatorial race in the early 2000’s.
>>People are deluding themselves.<<
People are reacting to his message, which they like. When you get right down to it, most of those who say they now support him probably don’t know his history, or didn’t know anything of it when they applauded his message.
Trump will fade as people get to know his past, but the other GOP candidates will benefit from seeing how strongly his message has resonated, and not just within the GOP base, either. Some of them will be able to adopt it for their own campaigns without demonstrating a conflict with their existing positions and demonstrated principles.
In that sense, Trump has done the GOP a huge favor.
I have no idea who your candidate is or would be but we need a strong leader not a politician. The politician thingie doesn't work anymore we need some one who can identify a problem, attack and solve it and move on. No more pretty words or promises. Just results. Who in your opinion is that person?
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