For House GOP, a Wave … Or a Trickle?

Roll Call Politics ^ | October 20, 2014 | Abby Livingston

[Clintonfatigued]

House Republicans are on track to make gains this cycle, but two weeks before Election Day, it’s still unclear whether the party will procure a wave of double-digit gains in their quest to extend the majority.

Members of Congress and operatives alike note this is a toxic time for Democrats on the ballot that should result in huge losses for the president’s party. But a race-by-race evaluation of the House map shows Republicans are more likely in a position to pick up a net of around six seats this cycle.

“After two successful cycles for House Republicans, the playing field confines the upper limits of pickups that can be had,” said Brock McCleary, a Republican pollster.

Public surveys show President Barack Obama’s unpopularity, as events in the Middle East and Ebola on the home front are dragging down Democrats coast to coast. House Democrats are defending more seats than Republicans this cycle.

But this midterm is shaping up to be one of the most perplexing in recent memory. Both parties are on offense, and both parties are on defense. In private polling, dozens of races are too close to call. Given the unpredictability, it’s also possible the next 14 days could exacerbate Democratic losses.

Here’s why most political operatives estimate Republican will have a net gain in the mid-single digits:

[Maceman]

They promised Amnesty.We lose regardless.

I would argue that we win by losing. We can't win the conservative agenda no matter who controls the Senate.

But if we could make it absolutely clear to the Uniparty RINOcrats that they can only lose by pursuing their "moderate" agenda and fighting a war against the conservative base, that would put us in the best position for the 2016 election because the party would be forced to become more conservative.

[Pollster1]

The answer is in our hands. If we decide that our votes don’t matter, if we decide that our candidates are not perfect so there is no point in voting, or if we decide to trust the polling staff and not act as election observers to try to control leftist fraud, then we will only have a trickle of victories. If we go all out to win, and to keep the election honest, then we will win big.

[Impy]

Yeah, more brotherclucking democrats in the House is just what we need to make government better, you are a clucking genius.

[Impy]

I hope to exceed the 242 from 2010, if not the 246 from 1946. It’s difficult to predict.

The rats have shut their mouths about the (never extant) possibly of them having a net gain, so that’s good.

Here’s a worrying poll from a GOP seat

Hendrix College

Patrick Henry (get it? he must be a “patriot” like Patrick Henry) Hays (D) 46%

French Hill (R) 42%

Hopefully Spanish Mound is able to pull it out.

[Maceman]

Yeah, more brotherclucking democrats in the House is just what we need to make government better, you are a clucking genius.

And you are clueless. You think a Republican win will save us?

The Republicans have made it very clear that they are only too happy to pass the Obama agenda if they win the Senate, which will give the Obama administration BI-PARTISAN COVER for the next two years leading up to the 2016 presidential elections.

Moreover, a Republican Senate victory will prove to the big goverment loving RINOcrats that they don't need the conservative base, on whom they have declared outright WAR, so you can forget about them becoming more conservative anytime soon -- not that we have any more time to wait.

You think it's crazy to say that Republicans intend to pass the Democrat agenda? Consider that:

The Republican leadership is lowering expectations about what they'll do if they take the Senate in 2014.

John McCain is already promising to restore the filibuster and promising to expedite approval of Obama's nominees “I will work very hard to go back to 60 votes,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who boldly predicts a Republican Senate would process Obama’s nominees “more rapidly than [Democrats] do today.”

And as for the House: John Boehner: ‘Very Few’ Republicans Will Oppose Me

Oh, and best of all, now Republicans are promising that a Senate takeover will increase the odds of passing immigration reform. Republicans: Immigration reform is more likely to happen if we take the Senate

Well at least the Republicans will repeal Obamacare. Oh wait, they won't.

The only SLIM chance we have to save our country at this point is to demonstrate beyond a doubt that the GOPs "moderate" agenda is doomed to fail at the polls.

Only then will we have a chance of having a true conservative Presidential nominee in 2016, and the utter collapse of Democrat credibility after two more years of their control of the Senate.

It is terrible to consider two more years of Democrat Senate Control, but no less terrible to consider the result of GOPe control.

[BillyBoy]

>> the first time since I could vote, Carter vs. Ford, I don’t care how this election turns out. <<

Nationally, I totally disagree. In the vast majority of house and senate races, I'm extremely concerned that the GOP candidate wins and the RAT loses.

Locally, however, I agree. I'm really sickened by the pathetic crop of candidates on the ballot here in Illinois. The few good conservatives stand virtually no chance of winning, and the disgusting RINOs who have a chance of winning will just ruin this state more and embolden the IL GOP to use them as "proof" that only RINOs are "electable" here. Worst ballot I've seen since I started voting in 1998.

When you have a bunch of pro-abortion, pro-gay marriage, pro-illegal Madigan suckups on the ballot, its hard to feel sympathy for other conservatives complaining their 90% conservative Senate candidate is a "RINO" because he doesn't scream Tea Party loudly enough.

[BillyBoy]

>> The rats have shut their mouths about the (never extant) possibly of them having a net gain, so that’s good. <<

The most enjoyable thing about this election is they've finally shut their mouths about the evil racist Republicans blocking Obama's agenda, now that the polls show Obama is LESS popular than Bush. I'm sure that fact infuriates them. I haven't heard a RAT whine about how "it's Bush's fault!!!" in quite some time.

They're still beating the "war on women" BS though.

[Impy]

I wasn’t being sarcastic bud, I really think you’re a bruthaclucking genius. More tax hiking, Obamacare loving, partial birth birth abortin’, queer marryin’ democrats are JUST what we need.

[fortheDeclaration]

This election is going to be a very bad one for the Democrats.

[stephenjohnbanker]

” You also have to factor in the fact that the GOP-E leadership is trending faster and faster to the left.

As a result, they are shedding more and more of their base as their base realize that the GOP-E Leadership doesn’t share their values or principles and instead represent deep-pocket campaign donors like the Chamber of Commerce. “

Correct take on the Chamber of Amnesty......er Commerce : )

[Impy]

More polling

Another worrying poll from Arkansas, same pollsters Hendrix College,

CD 4 (Open-GOP)

Westerman (R) 44%, Witt (D) (yes as in James Lee) 42%

Hinky?

MA 9th Emerson College Poll

Keating (D) 47%, Chapman (R) 44%

The last poll (the first poll of the race released) showed Chapman up by 5, in a surprise. This confirms the race is very competitive.

U/Mass Amherst Polls

NH-1

Che-Porter (D) 54%, Gunita (R) 37%

NH-2

Garcia (R) 48%, Kusterd (D) 44%

So they have Garcia ahead in the header race for the GOP and Gunita behind by a preposterous margin, that’s just bizzare.

[Clintonfatigued]

R24, I think the names have a lot to do with it. Patrick Henry Hayes (he didn’t use his middle name in previous campaigns) has a patriotic, down home sound. You can’t say the name about the name French Hill. He sounds like the kind of man who wears a white suit, sips mint julep on the porch of his plantation, golfs at the country club, and drives a foreign luxury car.

[Impy]

Which would be fine if he were running in CD-3, but he’s not.

It sounds stupid, but “independent” voters aren’t known for their brain power, names can be a factor. Judicial candidates with Irish names do well in the White areas of Chicago.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I sent in my predictions for an election contest today, and reluctantly had to pick Hays over Hill in AR-02. The AR-02 is the least Republican of the state’s four CDs (like 54% for Romney), it’s an open-seat race, Hays has name ID in Little Rock, Hill barely won his primary and easily can be depicted as a rich guy who’s trying to buy the seat, and while I think that both Cotton and Hutchison will win statewide by 5%-8%, they won’t have a big margin (if any) in the AR-02.

But in the last minute I decided to pick Young over Appell in IA-03, making the AR-02 one of only three GOP-held House districts that I have falling to the RATs (the open CA-41 that we won in a fluke last time and Grimm’s NY-13 being the others). The RATs picked up four GOP-held House seats in 1994 (all four of which opened up when the incumbent sought higher office—three of them (Santorum of PA, Grams of MN and Snowe of ME) were elected to the Senate in GOP pickups, while the fourth (Machtley of RI) lost the gubernatorial primary but the guy who beat him (Almond) picked up the governorship), and they picked up three GOP-held House seats in 2010 (the LA-02 and HI-01 that we had won under weird circumstances and the DE at-large seat that Castle gave up and that was doomed the moment that COD won the Senate primary).

I mentioned HI-01, which was one of the three House seats that the GOP lost in 2010; Djou lost the seat in 2010 (after having won with under 40% earlier in the year in a special election in which two RATs split the liberal vote)and lost the rematch in 2012, but I picked him to win in an upset this year. The way I see it, it’s an open seat, the RAT isn’t too formidable, even HI has Obama fatigue, and the RAT gubernatorial candidate won’t get over 45% (although, unfortunately, I still think that the RAT will beat Aiona for the governorship, with Hannemann taking like 12%).

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

I’ve also read worrying news about Steve Southerland in FL-2. Appears he’s in a tough race with former Senator Bob Graham’s daughter. The national GOP also seems a bit concerned about Lee Terry in NE-2.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Those two will be close (particularly NE-02), but I think that we’ll hold on.

Southerland has a fairly low ceiling in FL-02, but any Democrat (even Graham’s daughter, the Michelle Nunn of North Florida) has an even lower ceiling there. FL-02 has a very polarized electorate.

[Impy]

But in the last minute I decided to pick Young over Appell in IA-03,

Believing that GOP poll now?

I'll go out on a limb and say French gets over the hill in Arkansas. And that Mike Grimm will as well over a Brooklyn rat, making CA-31 the only seat we lose, somewhat mirroring 1948, when 2 open rat seats in Cali were the only GOP pickups that year.

Those two will be close (particularly NE-02), but I think that we’ll hold on. Southerland has a fairly low ceiling in FL-02, but any Democrat (even Graham’s daughter, the Michelle Nunn of North Florida) has an even lower ceiling there. FL-02 has a very polarized electorate.

I'll say a good year prevents those Republican-leaning seats from going full retard. Hmm, democrats sure love running Ex-RINOs (In Nebraska-2) and scions of famous rat families, double barf.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I’d say that GOP poll in IA-03 became more believable when that RAT operative leaked that Braley was behind in all four congressional districts. Basically, since IA-03 is almost exactly as Republican as the state as a whole, I think that Ernst winning statewide by 5% will give us enough of a cushion for Young to pull it out. In AR-02, though, my fear is that, since the district is like 5% less Republican than the state as a whole (i.e., a 10% swing), Cotton and Hutchison winning by less than 10% may not give Hill enough of a cushion; I hope I’m wrong, though.

As for NY-11, yeah, the RAT is from Brooklyn, not Staten Island, but he’s got an Italian name, and Grimm has been branded a crook for months now, so unfortunately I think that Grimm will fall short. I hope that I’m wrong, of course, and even if I’m not we’ll win it back in 2016 with Andrew Lanza or some other Italian-American Staten Islander.

And, yeah, the RATs prefer to run scions of 1970s Democrat politicians, ex-RINOs, and military vets with curiously liberal views.

[Impy]

Grimm is insufficiently conservative, so it might actually be better in the long run if he lost, but I can’t hope for any rat victory. I’d like Lanza to be the 2016 nominee regardless.

[Impy]

Honolulu Star Advertiser Poll

Charles Djou (R) 47%, Mark Takai (D) 47%