Believing that GOP poll now?
I'll go out on a limb and say French gets over the hill in Arkansas. And that Mike Grimm will as well over a Brooklyn rat, making CA-31 the only seat we lose, somewhat mirroring 1948, when 2 open rat seats in Cali were the only GOP pickups that year.
Those two will be close (particularly NE-02), but I think that we’ll hold on. Southerland has a fairly low ceiling in FL-02, but any Democrat (even Graham’s daughter, the Michelle Nunn of North Florida) has an even lower ceiling there. FL-02 has a very polarized electorate.
I'll say a good year prevents those Republican-leaning seats from going full retard. Hmm, democrats sure love running Ex-RINOs (In Nebraska-2) and scions of famous rat families, double barf.
I’d say that GOP poll in IA-03 became more believable when that RAT operative leaked that Braley was behind in all four congressional districts. Basically, since IA-03 is almost exactly as Republican as the state as a whole, I think that Ernst winning statewide by 5% will give us enough of a cushion for Young to pull it out. In AR-02, though, my fear is that, since the district is like 5% less Republican than the state as a whole (i.e., a 10% swing), Cotton and Hutchison winning by less than 10% may not give Hill enough of a cushion; I hope I’m wrong, though.
As for NY-11, yeah, the RAT is from Brooklyn, not Staten Island, but he’s got an Italian name, and Grimm has been branded a crook for months now, so unfortunately I think that Grimm will fall short. I hope that I’m wrong, of course, and even if I’m not we’ll win it back in 2016 with Andrew Lanza or some other Italian-American Staten Islander.
And, yeah, the RATs prefer to run scions of 1970s Democrat politicians, ex-RINOs, and military vets with curiously liberal views.