OPINION: Libyan Invasion Imminent, In September, 2012 -- But For ALL The Wrong Reasons [Vanity]

Sept 14, 2012 | Laz A. Mataz

[Lazamataz]

Based on the bits and pieces of information scattered across the web, I am about to embark on a bold prediction:

America will invade Libya in the next 7 to 10 days.

Here's a few pieces of information that lead me to this conclusion:

1. Marines headed to Libya to reinforce security
2. Obama vows justice for ambassador killing Kinda some pretty tough talk, coming out of such a 'chill out' President, no?
3. BREAKING!!Libya closes Benghazi airport after Islamists fire at U.S. drones in which we learn "The closure of the airport prompted speculation that the United States was deploying special forces in preparation for an attack against the militants who were involved.'

So, is a military action wise so close to an election? It is, if you want the Rally 'Round the Flag effect.

What is the Rally Round the Flag effect? It is a boost in Presidential popularity during a military engagement, as "in times of crisis, the American public sees the President as the embodiment of national unity".

This effect is strong, but short lived, and tends to peak at a little under two months.

A little under two months from now would put the peak squarely on Election day.

Would Obama be so narcissistic, so self-serving, so manipulative, as to time an attack to maximize his chance of altering the election for President?

I think we all know the answer to that.

[blueunicorn6]

You are right.

[section9]

BTW, I assume these two Carrier Groups are in the Indian Ocean, and not in the Gulf.

They’d be sitting ducks for Chinese missiles in the Gulf.

[GonzoGOP]

(PS: I wasn’t being snarky with the Colonel comment... I actually wonder if you have some command exp.!)

No that was my brother, and he was Navy. But I have spent most of my life listening to sea stories, both from him and my dad, reading military history, and generally listening to him predict military events a couple of weeks before they happened just by looking at unclassified stuff.

Carriers and Air Force fighter squadrons are the glamor units. Unfortunately that also means they get used for saber rattling. Watch the deployments of anphib ships, replenishment oilers and especially the ammo ships. When those move pull out your moon/tide chart.

It the build up to Gulf 1 the US launched the largest airlift since Berlin. The first RO/RO ship into port carried more cargo than the entire airlift. Desert Shield couldn't become Desert Storm until those big slow sea lift ships tied up.

You can defend a position with limited logistical support. You can raid with special forces with almost none. But to put large bodies of men and machines in motion you have to have a lot of gear moving first. An M1A2 needs to be refueled every four hours under combat conditions. So for every tank you ship you need to ship a bunch of fuel trucks. In the middle east that means lots of for MRAPs convoy escort as well. Just getting all that gear from the Continental US and depots in Iraq to the Med without using the Suez is going to take more than the 48 hours we have until the moon and tide is right.

If this is still going on next month, all bets are off.

[no-to-illegals]

Have to believe, after reading the thread there are more than Americans headed toward the Mediterranean. Last I read the russians had ships parked in syria with about two battalions onboard and the chineese also had ships in the area though did not hear troop numbers. All info is about three to four weeks old.

0bama would kill his own children if he though he could be reelected by having done such. 0bama is a pretender and he hates our Military. 0bama would send all of our Military to slaughter if it meant he would receive enough votes to continue his destruction of America. Thus Laz it may happen in October, if we (Americans) do not stop him. Good Luck to all of us!

[GonzoGOP]

They’d be sitting ducks for Chinese missiles in the Gulf.

According to the last reports..
Enterprise - 11 Sep 2012, North Arabian Sea
USS Eisenhower 11 Sep 2012, Persian Gulf having departed Khalifa Bin Salman Port, Bahrain on 03 Sep 2012.

So that would be a #69, a 90,000 ton serving of Peking Duck.

[Marcella]

No, Hussein is not going to attack Libya for there is nothing to attack. Maybe we will use special forces to find the guys who killed our people but we're not going to attack the country of Libya.

News today is there was no advance warning to our govn. or CIA or military that anything was going to happen. There has been a great deal of misinformation that takes some days to sort out.

All Hussein needs to do to get most Americans on his side is make a statement that he supports Israel and will help them if they attack Iran.

[Marcella]

No, Hussein is not going to attack Libya for there is nothing to attack. Maybe we will use special forces to find the guys who killed our people but we're not going to attack the country of Libya.

News today is there was no advance warning to our govn. or CIA or military that anything was going to happen. There has been a great deal of misinformation that takes some days to sort out.

All Hussein needs to do to get most Americans on his side is make a statement that he supports Israel and will help them if they attack Iran.

[RaceBannon]

yes, I do believe that Obama is willing to call, privately, on Muslims in the US to act up and protest and demand rights publically, as a form of forcing acceptance to their religion, and do so to instigate a religious war against themselves

THAT would be an ideal scenario for Obama to cancel elections and demand martial law

false flag events, veterans found dead with weapons nearby that they can claim were used in mass murders

I honestly do not put anything past this moron

[Marcella]

“Enough troops for News Media cooing. Exactly that much, and no more.”

We already have some there securing that building for forensics to determine the types of weapons used, etc. That is not an invasion or a war.

[TheOldLady]

Bumpity bump bump.

Get the word out. Keep our fellow Americans from falling for another “wag the dog” ruse for political purposes.

[Longbow1969]

I'd be delighted if you offered something behind yours.

Sorry for being brief in my previous response. I really don't know how to respond other than to say there is simply zero chance Obama is going to invade Libya. There isn't any reason to do so and the public isn't in the mood for another land war involving US ground troops. It's just not going to happen. You are just way off the mark on this one.

[Lazamataz]

There isn't any reason to do so

Rally 'Round the Flag effect.

It's just not going to happen. You are just way off the mark on this one.

I give the other posters credit, they actually had some hard facts to back up their thoughts, but all you have really done is restate your opinion with a few more words. Facts or indicators that it is unlikely would be more convincing.

For example, the facts offered by GonzoGOP have me altering my prediction drastically. I now think there is only a chance of an immediate specops operation, OR an air assault with no troops, or a little of both.

However, there still could be a full-on invade on Oct 15, the next full moon.

[TheConservativeParty]

Love the tagline!

[section9]

I have to agree with Longbow on this one. Given the logistical difficulties involved with moving two divisions to Libya, I just don’t see it happening.

Best,

Chris

[BufordP]

Both theories make good sense...given the feminine hygiene product in the WH.

[Delta 21]

This yahoo has absolutely no idea what he is doing.

And the best advice he is getting right now is coming from Cankles.

Totally FUBAR right now.

[Alamo-Girl]

Buuuuump!

[Jemian]

Both of you are spot-on. And, because the enormity of this crime is so repugnant to many citizens — (a president wouldn’t do that) — they just might re-elect him. If so, I only know of one course of action.