OPINION: Libyan Invasion Imminent, In September, 2012 -- But For ALL The Wrong Reasons [Vanity]

Sept 14, 2012 | Laz A. Mataz

[Lazamataz]

Based on the bits and pieces of information scattered across the web, I am about to embark on a bold prediction:

America will invade Libya in the next 7 to 10 days.

Here's a few pieces of information that lead me to this conclusion:

1. Marines headed to Libya to reinforce security
2. Obama vows justice for ambassador killing Kinda some pretty tough talk, coming out of such a 'chill out' President, no?
3. BREAKING!!Libya closes Benghazi airport after Islamists fire at U.S. drones in which we learn "The closure of the airport prompted speculation that the United States was deploying special forces in preparation for an attack against the militants who were involved.'

So, is a military action wise so close to an election? It is, if you want the Rally 'Round the Flag effect.

What is the Rally Round the Flag effect? It is a boost in Presidential popularity during a military engagement, as "in times of crisis, the American public sees the President as the embodiment of national unity".

This effect is strong, but short lived, and tends to peak at a little under two months.

A little under two months from now would put the peak squarely on Election day.

Would Obama be so narcissistic, so self-serving, so manipulative, as to time an attack to maximize his chance of altering the election for President?

I think we all know the answer to that.

[Lazamataz]

You may be right; mine is a very bold prediction.

It's more of an analysis of who Obama is, than anything else, frankly. He will do WHATEVER it takes to win re-election.

So, some people have given me pretty good reasons why a ground invasion is less than likely in this time frame. Maybe then, a strong aerial response. However, Clinton had little luck with the Rally 'Round the Flag effect when he did this. Aerial attacks don't have the punch Obama is looking for.

I've gone out of my way to explain quite a bit of my reasoning, and the alternate scenarios that might play out.

I'd be delighted if you offered something behind yours.

[buckalfa]

Don't forget Peter Arnnet (sp?) on CNN covering the air war from Bagdhad from GW1. I am sure the MSM would be more than happy to script and supply the technical means to make an airwar "must see tv".

I pray that you correct and the American people will see through the 0ne's charade.

[BlatherNaut]

Yes, he would ‘Wag the Dog’, as if that would create a sympathetic response from Americans, but it won’t. He is so despised by most true Americans, that they would see right through it, and it would reinforce their hatred and anger, not ‘Rally around the Flag’. Such misuse and of our armed men and women in uniform would be treasonous.......................

Yes.

And furthermore, launching attacks on a regime he recently helped to install would cement his image as the Supreme Incompetent.

[ZirconEncrustedTweezers]

Mine too.

[Lazamataz]

Woah, I just reread your message and I take in your meaning.

Do you believe Islamic people will invade, or commit acts of terror, in the next 60 days? That would be something, but that's even more of a conjecture than my prediction! There's some tantalizing news leaks that hint towards mine!

[GonzoGOP]

However, read this, and you will understand aircraft carriers are optional.

There are precisely 20 B-2 bombers. The darn things are so rare that they gave them individual names rather than tail numbers. They don't have tails either so I guess that OK.

However the point is that 20 planes, no matter how good, aren't going to give you sufficient air cover for an invasion. They can carry out one heck of a strike, but provide air superiority, not a chance in heck.

B-52s and B-1s need clear sky, and without fighters you aren't going to be able to guarantee that. Not with an openly hostile Egypt right across the border. To easy for some SAMs to find their way into Lybian hands. The Egyptians have a lot of Soviet Era stuff (they actually have three times the number of SAM batteries as the US military) that could end up in the hands fellow Muslim Brotherhood members. No problem for the B-2, but a real problem for B-52s flying without fighter cover.

So the answer comes down to ...
B-2 = Not Enough of them
Drones = Insufficient bomb load
Carriers = None in the area
F-15, F-16 & F-22 = (Fighters and Wild Weasels) Can't get the bases from the Euros.
B-52 & B-1 = Can't survive without cover from the fighters, jammers and wild weasels.

Besides even if you could provide air cover, you would need at least a division level force to take over an entire country. You would probably need more than that, but a division is more or less a minimum. No force anyplace near that size is embarked. It would take 7-10 days just to get them into a port and get the gater fleet loaded.

Now before you yell out 82n't airborne, they are light infantry without armor or logistical support. You can't resupply them by air because every plane full of beans bullets and bandages is going to be a sitting duck for the thousands of man portable missiles Obama lost track of when the MB took over Libya. You need close air support to suppress the manpads, and escort the cargo planes. We don't have close air support in the Med.

Airborne troops, or any light infantry, count on calling in air support to deal with any armor. Sure the Libyans probably only have a few old T-72s, but against light infantry without air cover that would be enough. Did I mention we don't have close air support in the Med.

Want to bring in tanks of our own, first you need to get them to the ports, load them on the ships and send them from US on shins going 12 knots. Not going to be there in a week that is for darn sure.

[Lazamataz]

Well reasoned.

I'm going to have to back down of my prediction of a full-grade invasion.

I will not discard my prediction entirely, though. I still expect a small-contingent specops, with some of those B2's that didn't need air support last time (right? And they went to Libya! So it's a proven technique too!).

But yeah, your facts have effectively refuted a Sept 16 full-on invasion. Oct 15 is still in the picture, though, so keep an eye on.

[knarf]

It occured to me while cutting firewood this morning, that I had originally thought Rahm Emmanuel was running from the White House and taking advantage of the cushy zero could provide until ...

With Chi just a few pieces of kindling away from a conflagratiuon ... it is not a city in danger.

No typo;

It is not a city in danger.

IT'S GLADIATOR SCHOOL

Michigan and Illinois are close enough to have a symbiotic relationship and with zero at the helm of the embedded muslim brotherhood ... ?

Somewhere in eastern Pennsylvanie is supposed to be an "unapproachable" compound/camp for muslims.

I'm not sure if it comes under Madrassa or not, but it's many acres and every way to enter is guarded.

I've travelled enough in the ohio, west virginia, pa.md.,NJ area to have seen quite a few mosques already built with shrubbery that indicates they've been here a while.

There are a lot of clues and hints to indicate ... they're within our social structure.

[Dr. Thorne]

It's too late, baby.

Obama notifies Congress of troop moves

[Lazamataz]

By the way, thanks. Sounds like you have some IRL experience with all this, Colonel. lol

[Lazamataz]

Dude, somethings up. Someone just hipped me to this:

Obama notifies Congress of troop moves

[ctdonath2]

Good analysis, though I’m still inclined to trust our capability (however misguided from the top) to fulfill the line “when it positively has to be destroyed overnight.” Don’t know how we can do it, get nervous about the cost, but I’m sure it can be done.

[steve86]

New moon on Sept 16. That is likely to be the invasion day.

For a second I thought I was reading an Israel attacks Iran thread. Wait a minute, that could happen this weekend as well.

[section9]

No, they're not. You need carriers off the Gulf if Sirte to provide CAP and Close Air Support for the Ground Troops until a MAW could be flown in, probably to the old Wheelus Air Force Base once the MEF had overrrun the base.

A Google Map of Wheelus, right smack dab on the Tripoli Beachfront, can be found here.

As you can plainly see, any effort to grab Wheelus would be a primary object of an MEF force. This would probably require a forced landing by an brigade-sized unit and an airborne operation by the Ready Brigade to keep the natives busy elsewhere while the airfield was secured so that follow-on forces could be brought in.

B-2's are nice for the heavy load, but they don't have the loiter time a carrier based ship's got.

As an alternative, we could go elsewhere in Libya, say, to Benghazi. We have scads of road maps left over from the Eigth Army's campaigns against Rommel during the Second War and from our time there during the fifties and sixties.

Nevertheless, I think we would want a couple of carrier groups there to help things along.

Best.

Chris

[Lazamataz]

(PS: I wasn’t being snarky with the Colonel comment... I actually wonder if you have some command exp.!)

[GonzoGOP]

Well reasoned.

I'm going to have to back down of my prediction of a full-grade invasion.

Don't back down on the prediction, just the timeline. You political logic about Obama starting a war to ensure reelection is quite sound. It is just that the war didn't show up where we expected it. In a month he could get the Lincoln and Truman into the Med. That would give us more than enough air power to support a full on invasion, even if the Euros don't play along. That would also give more than enough time to get the logistics in order.

Given a couple of weeks he might even get Greece to let us use their airbases on Cyprus, I hear they need money or something like that:)

In the mean time Obama could send in some SF types to play Rat Patrol in the desert. If that is enough to get the press all atwitter he can just pull them out. If he needs the full Operation October Surprise they would have picked out good places to drop the 82nd.

I don't trust Obama, and I always assume the worst from him. But logistics only can move so fast. Big invasions need even bigger supply chains.

[NEMDF]

Yes, and here we have the friggin’ Chairman of Joint Chiefs or whatever, taking the side of Islam in coming down on a private citizen (the Koran burning pastor in FL?) for supporting the alleged anti-Islam documentary, so even the military is lost to us in this cause.

Okay maybe we should buy more tin foil. But this could be the deal. I had always held out hope for the US Armed Forces to not be complicit in the retention of 0bama in office, but with this orchestration, it might just work out for him.

(Are we all nuts?)

[Walmartian]

bump

[GonzoGOP]

For a second I thought I was reading an Israel attacks Iran thread. Wait a minute, that could happen this weekend as well.

Did I mention we have two CVNs and a Marine expeditionary force sitting off the coast of Iran. That's why we are so short of forces in the Med. The war didn't show up where or when Obama expected. Turns out the Iranians can read a Moon/Tide chart too and may have launched a spoiling attack.

[section9]

That’s very well reasoned. I have always believed that the Lebanon War of 2006 was a spoiling offensive by the Iranians to disrupt a planned American diplomatic offensive against the Iranian weapons program.

Best,

Chris