Romney’s Delegate Lead Grows

The Washington Post ^ | March 14, 2012 | Aaron Blake

[Iron Munro]

Despite his losses in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, Mitt Romney appears to have expanded his delegate lead on Tuesday.

The most recent projections from AP show Rick Santorum took 31 delegates from Alabama and Mississippi, while Newt Gingrich took 24 delegates and Romney got 23

But this morning, Romney was projected to win all nine delegates from American Samoa’s caucuses, and he also won the Hawaii caucuses by a large margin.

AP projections show Romney beat Santorum 18 delegates to four in those jurisdictions.

So, as of this morning, Romney has won 41 delegates from Tuesday’s contests, compared to 35 for Santorum, thereby expanding Romney’s delegate lead. (Gingrich is projected to have won 24 delegates.)

[Iron Munro]

Current Delegate Counts:

Romney - 494

Santorum - 251

Gingrich - 131

Paul - 48

[agere_contra]

But of course the Not-Romney delegate count is going up faster than the Romney delegate count. That’s the key. That’s why there will be a brokered convention.

[SaxxonWoods]

Romney needs to win about 46% of the outstanding delegates to win the nomination outright.

Santorum needs about 64%.

Newt, 72%.

[stars & stripes forever]

Those delegates are not going to translate into votes for Romney if he gets the nomination. I believe a conservative 3rd party candidate will rise up.

[SaxxonWoods]

Carrying on, the not-Romneys must win 52% of the remaining delegates to stop Romney from taking the homination outright.

[entropy12]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2857771/posts?page=4#4

Looking at states yet to hold primaries, such as IL, PA, NY, CA, DC, MD, CT, DE, RI, OR, UT etc 46% is not impossible.

My guess is Newt will be forced to drop out or just limp along till end. You know the old adage, candidates do not quit, they just run out of money.

[Pollster1]

I believe a conservative 3rd party candidate will rise up.

I don't believe that. I hope it's true, but I believe that the party leadership would rather offend the conservative base and guarantee an insider wins (even if that insider is more likely to be Obama) than risk having a nominee who will genuinely cut government and risk cutting their power.

[SoConPubbie]

Romney is toast!

He can’t win the nomination outright before the end of the Primaries.

As the perception of his weakness as a candidate and his inability to win outright grows through the rest of the primaries in spite of the support of his undeclare Super-PAC FauxNews, he will continue to lose delegates to both Santorum and Gingrich.

This is sweet!

[SoConPubbie]

Looking at states yet to hold primaries, such as IL, PA, NY, CA, DC, MD, CT, DE, RI, OR, UT etc 46% is not impossible.

Maybe not impossible, but not probable and as the reality sinks into the conservative base that a win by Romney is neither inevitable or probable based on his continual losses, Romney will have a higher and higher mountain to climb as the rest of the Primaries unfold.

Another factor to factor in, is that the base in the states that have already held their primaries and who had to endure the endless and ugly and dishonest negative ad blitzes by Romney, will be talking to their friends and families in other states that have not held their primary.

Romney's only effective weapon in this campaign, false advertising, will become less and less effective.

Romney's chances are looking bleak!

[dfwgator]

Last night was proof that Conservatives will NOT vote for Romney, and he is dead in the General without their support.

He can win the Nomination, but he has no shot in the General.

[stephenjohnbanker]

Did Romney take Outer Mongolia too?

[SoConPubbie]

Romney needs to win about 46% of the outstanding delegates to win the nomination outright.

Out of your three statistics you posted, that is the most telling.

Romney, correct me if I am wrong, has only been able to crack the 40% mark in liberal states and states with extremely small delegate counts. As long as both Newt and Santorum stay in the race, that 46% Romney needs is almost impossible.

Can you say Brokered Convention?

I can, and they truly sweet words!

Anything that weakens and/or destroys the candidacy of Mitt Romney is a wonderful thing to behold!

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

You are wrong about that, Santorum needs 67% where your 3% error is actually significant, comparing the demographics of the remaining states.

[aegiscg47]

Yours is one of the saner predictions on here. Like it or not the odds are very high that Romney is going to hit this number, especially with NY and CA still on the list. Utah and/or Oregon will put him over the top and he will end up as the candidate. Although it's fun to speculate and discuss about brokered conventions, 3rd party candidates getting into the race late, etc., the reality is that those things have an extremely slim chance of happening. I'm not saying that everyone here has to like a Romney candidacy, but you can't ignore the reality that he in all likelihood will get the needed number of candidates.

[JediJones]

Romney will be the nominee if both Newt and Rick stay in the race. There is no avoiding it. The only way to beat him is for a single conservative to remain in the race and to outperform Romney in the MANY winner-take-all states and districts coming up. That is the only way Newt and Rick can accumulate enough delegates together that they will outnumber Romney’s and Paul’s.

If they both stay in, Romney has a chance to just limp over the 1,144 threshold, or will almost definitely be close enough that Paul’s delegates can put him over the top.

Newt and Rick have handed him delegates he could have been denied by vote-splitting in Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Ohio, and Michigan. Almost THREE TIMES that many upcoming states have similar winner-take-all rules. The primaries were set up that early states would be mostly proportional, but later states are the opposite.

Romney will amass more delegates in the following states in a 3-man race while he could be virtually shut out of many in a 2-man race. A 2-man race denies him 100-200 more delegates by making sure he never gets a plurality when Newt and Rick’s combined votes could have beaten him and by sometimes beating him by 50%. THIS WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE in denying him the nomination. It’s that close.

Illinois
Wisconsin
Maryland
New York
Pennsylvania
Connecticut
Delaware
West Virginia
Texas
California
New Jersey

[entropy12]

All depends on how much money Santorum can muster. My best guess is we will have a nominee by the UT primary.

[tanuki]

I don’t think that a third party is the answer. I think that this race has taught the Tea Party that if we want our views represented, we need our own national organization, including funding and volunteers. Just think where either Santorum or Gingrich would be with such an organization-and only a fraction of Mitten’s money.

[SoConPubbie]

Yours is one of the saner predictions on here. Like it or not the odds are very high that Romney is going to hit this number, especially with NY and CA still on the list. Utah and/or Oregon will put him over the top and he will end up as the candidate. Although it's fun to speculate and discuss about brokered conventions, 3rd party candidates getting into the race late, etc., the reality is that those things have an extremely slim chance of happening. I'm not saying that everyone here has to like a Romney candidacy, but you can't ignore the reality that he in all likelihood will get the needed number of candidates.

Please Stop!

I can't quit laughing!

Mitt Romney, needing 46% of the votes in the rest of the remaining Primaries, while still facing two conservatives, is somehow going to magically win that number of votes, even after he has only been able to break that % in extremely small states or protectorates where he has essentially been uncontested?

Futhermore, since a large portion of those voting for him are doing so under the mistaken perception that his is the most electable, you don't see that perception knocked to the ground in the minds of future primary voters after a string of defeats by both Santorum and Gingrich? You don't think that as the Primaries go forward, his "cloak" of invicibility isn't just showing more holes, but is in tatters?

Tell me you can't be that clueless, can you?

[SoConPubbie]

All depends on how much money Santorum can muster. My best guess is we will have a nominee by the UT primary.

Not a chance!

Not even if all the planets aligned for Mitt Romney.

His loss in both Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, Tennessee, etc, has completely sunk Romney's campaign.

He will not recover.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

It’s ironic!

Romney does better with Democrats and Moderates than he does against Conservatives. His hard “sell” that his is conservative, has wound up on deaf ears. I was watching him claim that he, is the only candidate who knows how to “work with both sides, to come to a mutual solution.” This is an indication of what to expect with Romney. (Especially, heavy for the “other” side.)