2012 Iowa Caucus Live Thread

Iowa GOP ^ | 1.3.12 | Free Vulcan

[Free Vulcan]

Live thread to cover today's GOP caucus. News, predictions, opinions, totals, and the like.

Will be heading out about 4 pm or so to get our site ready and do a final review with the precinct chairs. I expect it to be bigger than 2008 with very heavy turnout and we are preparing for that.

We are also ready for disruptions. They simply won't be tolerated. The state party sent us a memo saying if there's any trouble call the cops immediately. Anyone trying to cause problems is going to get a rude awakening.

My predictions of the outcome are a narrow field with about a 10 point spread for the top five with Bachmann far behind in single digits:

Santorum - 24 Romney - 22 Paul - 20 Perry - 17 Gingrich - 14 Bachmann - 4 The Rest - 1

Think things are still in flux and many won't decide till right to the wire, so I'm not terribly confident of any predictions.

[bray]

The establishmedia hate machine will be going full blast after an unashamed Christian Conservative. Let the war begin.

Pray for America

[ICCtheWay]

Rubio’s parents were refugees from Cuba and WERE NOT U.S. Citizens at the time of their son’s birth ... Rubio explained this on a radio broadcast... in fact there is even dispute that they were even refugees - most likely illegal aliens ... but never the less ...

[matthew fuller]

"Perry won’t drop out now. He is going to S.C."

FL is about four days after SC- He's going to FL, at least.

[Deo volente]

They hate the man because he wants to defend the lives of infants in the womb, and uphold traditional marriage.

That’s it, pure and simple.

[Prokopton]

I heard every word, and he said he was going to pray over it.

He's out!

[JDW11235]

I came in only for about the last 30 seconds of what he said, but am listening to commentary right now. I’m sure he’ll go back. He has nothing to lose by going back to Texas now, where he can serve out the term he said he would. If he stays in the game, he’ll likely be further embarassed, which could make things worse for his chances the next go around. Heading back to Texas is a clear sign that he’s at least doubting his (nonexistent) chances. I think it’ll end up being Romney, Paul and either Newt or Santorum (depended on who gets more fundraising) come Super Tuesday. I know Huntsman will probably get out soon. I hope it’s sooner, rather than later.

[BenKenobi]

Helluva race tonight.

[Theodore R.]

Apparently, it will be a Romney win, with the remaining 61 precincts outstanding. Probably Mittens will lead by 300.

[CedarDave]

Yep. He said he is going home to Texas to see if there is a path forward for him. He was very subdued reading and choking up over a Marine’s letter written to him. He is out, I am sure. Money people I am sure, more of showing than the 10%. I love Rick Perry.

Michele is probably thinking "Oh goody if he drops out, I'll pick up all his votes."
Umm, Michele -- Not.

[onyx]

Governor Perry is going back to Texas to consider his next steps... to see if he thinks there’s a pathway forward.

He’s going to pray about it, too.

[alicewonders]

Yep. He said he is going home to Texas to see if there is a path forward for him. He was very subdued reading and choking up over a Marine’s letter written to him. He is out, I am sure. Money people I am sure, more of showing than the 10%. I love Rick Perry.

I do too. He is the best guy for the job. I hope he goes on - Iowa doesn't pick the eventual winner, they usually pick the eventual loser.

[bigbob]

I’m wondering if it really matters who “wins” - it’s going to end up a dead heat with maybe a 100 vote margin, and regardless, Iowa has put santorum onto a national level that he was not at before. Win or lose, he’s the big winner.

[jwalsh07]

Doesn’t matter who gets the most votes, the winner tonight is Santorum.

[Windflier]

If people like me answer conservative on Gallup’s poll then it seems logical that the term conservative has meanings that do not reflect the ideologies of most here.

You sound like a confused individual, who's not sure of their ideological stance.

"People like you"? Do you subscribe to the mission of Free Republic (read it on the main page). If not, then you're not a conservative, and should not have answered 'yes' to the Gallup poll.

[DCBryan1]

I can just picture some old farmer in bib overalls listening to George Jones on the truck radio, taking his sweet old time.

ROFLMAO! George Jones is soooooo Kansas/Missouri!

I'll call your George Jones and raise you a Slim Whitman!

[ICCtheWay]

Romney is obama lite... nothing more - nor nothing less...

[gswilder]

I’m a Perry supporter, not shilling for Romney. Or I hope I still am able to support Perry. But his speech sounded like he is heading out. Too bad. I thought Perry had a great shot. All those early gaffs did him in. The public meme became Perry doesn’t know what is going on outside the walls of TX. Same thing media did to Palin. It’s sad. I know there are a ton of alternate media outlets now, but the MSM still has too much power.

[JDW11235]

I can only hear the audio from the Fox feed. Thanks for the update.

[bray]

Big deal, he spent $10-15 million to beat Santorum who likely didn’t spend $150K by 300 votes. He should be very concerned if Conservatives begin dropping out.

Great job Rick!

Pray for America

[Mozilla]

Rick Santorum 29,210 25%
Mitt Romney 29,173 25%
Ron Paul 25,307 22%
Newt Gingrich 15,722 14%
Rick Perry 12,194 11%
Michele Bachmann 5,934 6%
Herman Cain 57 1%