Palin's Electability: Framing the Debate (It's the Electoral College, stupid!)

12/18/2010 | Brices Crossroads

[Brices Crossroads]

Predictably, the blogosphere is alive with polls telling conservatives that, in spite of the smashing conservative triumph of last month inspired and led by the TEA Party and Sarah Palin, Governor Palin's nomination for President in 2012 will result in an electoral debacle at the hands of Barack Obama. Most recently, ABC and the Washington Post produced a poll showing that Obama would trounce Palin by 22 points.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/17/AR2010121701512.html?hpid=topnews

I frequently see bloggers and conservative analysts, even those who favor Palin, try to refudiate such polls based upon the sample size, the length of time between now and the election, the absence of the momentum building, year long Presidential campaign, the fact that Regan came back from even greater deficits, and many other factors which render such polls meaningless. All these rebuttals are well taken, but it seems to me that they miss the point.

Notice how the MSM outlets always focus on generic national polls, using 2008 turnout models, ignoring the 2010 elections. By responding to these polls as some do, we are making a classic mistake that no good lawyer or advocate ever makes: We are letting the opponent frame the issue and accepting their premise. The election is not a national election, based on a generic plebiscite. It is 50 separate state elections. The Establishment and its MSM pipe organ never want to talk about the real key to electability....the Electoral College, because it does not fit their chosen meme of Palin's unelectability. Instead, an analysis of the Electoral College, which is the true measure of electability not only shows that Palin is electable, but that it is Obama whose hold on the presidency that is becoming increasingly precarious.

The electoral map is now tilting heavily in her direction, with the South solidly in her corner and the Midwest (especially Ohio and Wisconsin) trending heavily away from Obama and toward her. If she holds the McCain states (which is a given) and adds just six more (Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Nevada, Indiana, and Virginia)---traditional red states, in each of which Obama's poll numbers are in the tank-- she wins the Presidency with 271 electoral votes.

I do not even include formerly blue states that went deep red such as Wisconsin (Tea Party Senator), New Mexico (Mama Grizzly/Tea Party Governor) and New Hampshire (Mama Grizzly wins Senate 60-40 over Dem Congressman). Obama will be hard pressed in all three, especially Wisconsin.

We all need to block out the Charlie Cooks and the other proponents of the MSM agitprop that Palin cannot win. They are out to demoralize us and their generic poll numbers, two years out, do not change the electoral college math, which favors Palin. We need to stop allowing the lamestream media to define "electability" in such a way that it suits their purposes.

From now on, when someone challenges Governor Palin's electability and throws an MSM poll in your face, politely redirect the argument to the electoral college and enlighten them about the fact that, under the Constitution and in light of the current political conditions in the battleground states, Sarah Palin is not only electable, but it is Obama who is becoming increasingly unelectable.

[MBB1984]

If Obama is truly up on Palin by 22 points, Obama would thrash Palin in the electoral college.

[Lakeshark]

I hope you're right, I think this one may be wide open. What I see right now (thankfully, the scene will change as we approach actual voting) the conservative elves will take a few percent, while Huckaphony will split the socons. If you look at the numbers it's kind of scary.

I'm not saying she can't win in these conditions, just that it may be harder than the general.

[magna carta]

Yes...Hermanator rocks big time! WOW! not sure of his positions on invaders though as he was head of restaurant business-type groups. I know conservatives that are all into following the New World Order scene and believe Palin is a set-up to ensure Obama wins a second term.Something about they have info on her they are sitting on and will release at the right moment...are not supportive of her.
Maybe a Hermanotor/Palin ticket would really clear the field.

[Brices Crossroads]

Glad you liked it, Lonevoice.

It is something that had been on my mind as I have watched the MSM push their generic national polls to try to create the narrative that suits their purposes. We need to push back by reminding them (again) about the Constitution and giving them a little dose of electoral college reality.

[wendy1946]

For Palin to win the Republican party would have to hammer out some sort of an official position on abortion which conservatives could live with and which did not frighten a majority of the American people the way the issue does now. It wouldn’t hurt to have a decent pubbie position on money and banking in the bargain.

[Lakeshark]

I know conservatives that are all into following the New World Order scene and believe Palin is a set-up to ensure Obama wins a second term

I think they post on the UFO threads all the time....

:-)

[OrangeHoof]

As someone who has cited these polls myself, I think you make a very good case. Right now is way too early to say anyone is unelectable, even Obama. I also acknowledge the media skews the polls to fit their predetermined positions. I am worried, however, about Palin’s unfavorable ratings which is a different subject than horse race polls.

Favorable/Unfavorable doesn’t ask you to choose between two candidates. It asks you whether you like this person. The only person with high unfavorables to win election in recent times was Harry Reid last month and I suspect much of that was due to illegal activity that will never be revealed. It makes no sense to me that thousands of people would vote for Reid but not vote for his son for governor.

Some voters have a problem with electing a woman to lead the country, believing them to be too unstable or prone to emotional reactions instead of logical ones. Any woman candidate, not just Palin, has to overcome that notion.

All I am saying is that I’m not “all in” on supporting Sarah Palin for president until I see her receive broad support as a serious candidate and not as a celebrity sideshow. There’s plenty of time to see if that will happen but I am still waiting to see how other Republicans, not just the media or Democrats, react to her as a candidate on her own, rather than as a running mate for McCain.

Right now, the GOP brand is selling better than the Democrat brand but there’s nothing to say that will be true in 2012 any more than 2008 was a precursor for 2010 results.

[erlayman]

I don’t care how the EC is broken down, Palin would need a third party to win for sure. With positives closer to 20-30% and 60% of Americans who wouldn’t consider voting for her, those voters are going to be out in force on election day.

[altura]

Things to consider.

OK, I’ve considered, I’m still for Palin.

[exit82]

From now on, when someone challenges Governor Palin's electability and throws an MSM poll in your face, politely redirect the argument to the electoral college and enlighten them about the fact that, under the Constitution and in light of the current political conditions in the battleground states, Sarah Palin is not only electable, but it is Obama who is becoming increasingly unelectable.

Brices--you say the sweetest things.

[Bedford Forrest]

For Cohen, the connection between intelligence and the right to govern is sufficiently attested in President Obama’s case by the fact that he and his wife have been “accredited by no less than four Ivy League institutions — Harvard twice and Princeton and Columbia, once each.” Res ipsa loquitur, as we elitists might say.

Cohen's Kool-Ade fueled fascination with the Kenyan Entity's purported accreditations from two schools, best described as Marxist petri dishes, is typical of the MSM Obama cultists. In fact, the Kenyan Entity has never shown a shred of a paper trail demonstrating his matriculation, attendance, major fields of study, grade transcripts, articles, papers, or theses, let alone his successful completion of the credit hours necessary for the award of a bachelors degree, [Columbia] or a JD [Harvard]. Are the Palin-haters concerned that they are supporting a changeling,. a fraudulent usurper who has NO qualifications of any sort, whose background gets curiouser every day? If their mania over Palin is any indication, it would seem they now view the Kenyan Entity as an impending disaster. Hence the crazy puff pieces on his electability.

[Antoninus]

The slogan for 2012 should be "down with the political elite, regardless of party."

It's not just Congress that has a 14% approval rating--it's the whole stinking political class. Any politician that can successfully set the entire country against DC will win in a massive landslide.

[Brices Crossroads]

“I don’t care how the EC is broken down, Palin would need a third party to win for sure.”

That is the lamest reponse I have ever seen. The Electoral college dtermines which candidate wins; victory does not depend on what a generic NATIONAL polls says about a candidtate’s negatives.

Let me walk you through it slowly. McCain carried 22 states with 173 electoral votes WITHOUT a third party candidate to help him. Why don’t you give us some of those 22 states that will require a third party candidate for Palin to carry? Be specific. Mississippi? Texas? Georgia? Take your time. No one is holding their breath. LOL

OK. Let’s start with hte easy ones. MCCain carried the follwing states with 165 Electoral votes

[Gargantua]

"I think if Obama won in 2012, it would be time for secession."

An exceptional argument for getting 100% behind Palin and making sure she wins in 2012. Otherwise, you're talking about destroying the Republic that millions have died to preserve.

Not on my watch.

Not. On. My. Watch.

:-\

[Brices Crossroads]

“Any politician that can successfully set the entire country against DC will win in a massive landslide.”

There is really only one politician on the current national scene who can do that.

[techno]

The false narrative that the MSM wants to present to the American people is one of omission or neglect rather than overstatement or exaggeration save the high negatives supposedly attached to Palin.

Here are 10 samples of what they want to “omit” from the political discourse:

1)The nature of the electoral college and that the candidate who gets to 270 EV wins the election

2)The GOP primary competition is more important now than the next general election.

3)The exit polls of the 2010 midterms

4)The Fox poll showing only 35% of American feel Obama DESERVES to be re-elected.

5)That conservatives are a growing proportion of the electorate and moderates are a declining proportion of the population,

6)Independents are not all MODERATES; actually 36% of indies are CONSERVATIVES.

7) Palin’s major role in orchestrating the GOP triumph

8)Obama’s approval numbers are treading water since the election

9)Palin’s F/UF with LIKELY VOTERS:

Sept 20/2010 Rasmussen 48/49

Oct 20/2010 AP-GfK 49/50

Sept 27/2010 Battleground 44/49

10)How weak the 2012 GOP presidential field is

[Gargantua]

While wildly famed within his very tiny sphere of influence, Cain is an unknown nationally. He will never touch Palin's robe when it comes to international acclaim, much less her unprecedented elected executive experience or list of amazing accomplishments.

Give it a break, Magma. Palin 2012. It's a fait accompli.

8^D

[Al B.]

Good stuff BC. Thanks for the ping.

[Brices Crossroads]

“Here are 10 samples of what they want to “omit” from the political discourse”

All valid points, Techno. I am glad you listed the Electoral College first since it is the most important, and it is also the easiest to link to the 2010 midterm successes not only because of the electoral results in the six states which Palin needs to flip but because the new GOP control of the electoral machinery in those states via the new Governorships will make it next to impossible for Obama to steal the elections there, even if they are close.

[Gargantua]

" I know conservatives that are all into following the New World Order scene and believe Palin is a set-up to ensure Obama wins a second term."

LMAO! You know this, do you?

This is my nominee for most ridiculous, pathetic, fabricated out of whole-cloth and half-a-brain delusional anti-Palin PDS bullshit in all of 2010! This goes right in the "Guess what I smoked for breakfast?" category of insipid brainlessness!

"...conservatives that are all into following the New World Order..."

Yeah, lots of them running around, huh?! LMAO!!!!!!

You've outdone yourself, or even pissant, Magma. Truly amazing!

8^D