[erlayman]

I don’t care how the EC is broken down, Palin would need a third party to win for sure. With positives closer to 20-30% and 60% of Americans who wouldn’t consider voting for her, those voters are going to be out in force on election day.

[Brices Crossroads]

“I don’t care how the EC is broken down, Palin would need a third party to win for sure.”

That is the lamest reponse I have ever seen. The Electoral college dtermines which candidate wins; victory does not depend on what a generic NATIONAL polls says about a candidtate’s negatives.

Let me walk you through it slowly. McCain carried 22 states with 173 electoral votes WITHOUT a third party candidate to help him. Why don’t you give us some of those 22 states that will require a third party candidate for Palin to carry? Be specific. Mississippi? Texas? Georgia? Take your time. No one is holding their breath. LOL

OK. Let’s start with hte easy ones. MCCain carried the follwing states with 165 Electoral votes

[SoConPubbie]

With positives closer to 20-30% and 60% of Americans who wouldn’t consider voting for her, those voters are going to be out in force on election day.

2 years out and you have already, positively, declared Palin the loser based on selective polling, polling I might add, that if you look at the internals is very erratic on other issues and whose sampling routinely oversamples Democrats.

Furthermore, you ignore the polling that shows that Palin is more popular than Obama.

Convenient.

Finally, never trust the polls until the final one, General Election day. As proof I add the following:

Rudy Guiliani was forcast to be the winner in the 2008 primaries all the way until the Florida Primary. 2 years out he was the front runner.

Did he win?

Reagan was down 30+ points several months before the November 1980 general election, he won going away.

For further proof, here is some historical information:

11/05/2010 11:26:39 AM PDT · 24 of 36
Al B. to onyx; SoConPubbie

Harris Poll January 29, 1980:

CARTER NOW FAR AHEAD OF BOTH REAGAN AND BUSH

"President Carter so dominates the American political scene now that his margin over Ronald Reagan in a post-Iowa trial heat has risen to an overwhelming 65-31 percent."

Also, Time magazine ran a big story in March of that year basically saying Reagan was unelectable. Gallup had a poll in that time frame with Reagan down 25 points.

Here's another blast from the past, March 10, 1980. The GOP establishment had decided they needed another candidate besides Bush to stop Reagan and started recruiting Gerald Ford:

ABC News - Harris poll: FORD LEADS BOTH CARTER AND REAGAN, ALTHOUGH STILL UNDECLARED CANDIDATE

"Former President Gerald Ford is the first choice of Republican and independent voters to head the GOP ticket, even though he has not yet declared himself a candidate for the Republican nomination.

Ford also leads President Carter among the general electorate."

Here's another one for your collection:

Historic Whispers: Ronald Reagan Had Little Chance of Winning the Primary

White House political strategists have concluded—regretfully—that Ronald Reagan is fading and will have little chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 1980. Why the regrets? Because Carter's aides are convinced that the conservative, 68-year-old former California governor is an easy target. (April 2, 1979)

Like they loved John Connally and Howard Baker in 1979. Anybody but Ronald Reagan back in those days. Same ol', same ol'....

"Although the Gipper had a near mystical hold over grassroots conservatives, he was still not held in high regard by the power brokers of the GOP. In the spring of 1979, a survey of leading Republicans showed John Connally to be their first choice for GOP nominee in 1980, with 31.9 percent of the vote; Howard Baker came in second with almost 18 percent; Reagan was essentially tied with George Bush at 11 percent."
-- Craig Shirley, Rendezvous With Destiny, pg. 36. (Citation to U.S. News article from April 16, 1979)

Here's another one for your collection:

Historic Whispers: Ronald Reagan Had Little Chance of Winning the Primary

White House political strategists have concluded—regretfully—that Ronald Reagan is fading and will have little chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination in 1980. Why the regrets? Because Carter's aides are convinced that the conservative, 68-year-old former California governor is an easy target. (April 2, 1979)

Like they loved John Connally and Howard Baker in 1979. Anybody but Ronald Reagan back in those days. Same ol', same ol'....

"Although the Gipper had a near mystical hold over grassroots conservatives, he was still not held in high regard by the power brokers of the GOP. In the spring of 1979, a survey of leading Republicans showed John Connally to be their first choice for GOP nominee in 1980, with 31.9 percent of the vote; Howard Baker came in second with almost 18 percent; Reagan was essentially tied with George Bush at 11 percent."
-- Craig Shirley, Rendezvous With Destiny, pg. 36. (Citation to U.S. News article from April 16, 1979)

[Gargantua]

"I don’t care how the EC is broken down..."

'Nuff said. Buh-bye.

;-/