What Would a Korean War Look Like? 4 Predictions

AOL News ^ | May 27 2010

[fenderfeeder]

(May 27) -- Tensions continue to mount on the Korean peninsula in the wake of an international investigation that concluded a North Korean submarine was responsible for sinking a South Korean navy ship in April, killing 46 sailors. In the latest chess moves, Seoul staged a big anti-submarine drill, which Pyongyang responded to by saying it will no longer honor an agreement meant to avoid accidental naval clashes between the two nations.

As the crisis escalates, an unsettling question comes into focus: What would war on the Korean peninsula look like some 50-odd years after the armistice that brought the Korean War to an end?

A North Korean Attack: Though war would be catastrophic for both countries, South Korea would suffer the most in the first days of a full-scale conflict. Its capital of Seoul lies just 50 miles south of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) -- as big a misnomer as you will find, since the area is one of the most heavily militarized areas on the planet. On this de facto border, North Korea has amassed about 13,000 artillery pieces, rockets, missiles and other ordinance that can reach Seoul in a matter of minutes. Seoul, a city of 1 million, could be flattened; also at risk are the 28,500 American troops stationed in the country. Additionally, North Korea could release its dams and flood much of the South, writes Christopher Hitchens. There's also its 1.2 million-member army to consider. And were North Korea to deploy nuclear and chemical weapons, the devastation would be much much worse.

South Korea's Response: South Korea is far from defenseless, however. It has a standing army of more than 500,000 and nearly 10 times that in trained reservists. It has twice the population of the North and is a First-World economic power with huge industrial capacity, while North Korea is an economic backwater where much of the population is malnourished. In any protracted conflict, these would be huge advantages. What's more, the DMZ is heavily mined, and the border area is hilly (even mountainous along the East Coast) and offers natural defensive positions.

International Actors: Alliances haven't changed much in 50 years. The U.S. backs South Korea, while China supports the North. Neither country would likely remain neutral in a Korean war, but it's unclear how involved they would be -- unless North Korea employed nuclear weapons, which would almost certainly trigger an immediate U.S. response. Since 1978, the U.S. has pledged to protect South Korea from a nuclear threat from the North. "Under the extended nuclear deterrence pledge, the U.S. military would use some of its tactical nuclear weapons, such as B-61 nuclear bombs carried by B-2/52 bombers and F-15E, F-16 and F/A-18 fighters, as well as Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from nuclear-powered submarines, to strike North Korea's nuclear facilities in retaliation for any such attack on the South," military experts told The Korea Times. China will not support North Korean nuclear aggression, though it's unlikely to sit by idly if American and South Korean forces take over the North. Meanwhile, the main U.S. tensions with China will remain over Taiwan, which could exacerbate if Taiwan used the distraction of a Korean conflict to declare independence.

The Aftermath: Were full-scale war to break out, the endgame likely would be the end of North Korea's dictatorship; the U.S. would not settle for a peace that left Kim Jong-il in power. But what would you do with his brainwashed subjects, whose leader has done everything he can to block their access to the modern outside world? Hitchens, again:

"The dirty secret here is that no neighboring power really wants the North Korean population released from its awful misery. Here are millions of stunted and unemployable people, traumatized and deformed by decades of pointless labor on the plantations of a mad despot. The South Koreans do not really want these hopeless cases on the soil of their flourishing consumer society. The Chinese, who have a Korean-speaking province that borders North Korea, are likewise unwilling to suffer the influx of desperate people that is in our future."

This reintegration project would be much more difficult than the one following the reunification of Germany, where Soviet control in the East, however draconian, never approached the cult state that is North Korea. Whatever military challenges war would bring would be dwarfed by these postwar social challenges.

[ETL]

From Aug 5, 2001:

Putin, Kim Jong Il Signed Declaration

Russian President Vladimir Putin and visiting top leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Kim Jong Il, held a historic meeting in the Kremlin on last Saturday to warm traditional ties between their two countries, which have stagnated for over a decade, and signed a key declaration to guide the development of bilateral relations.

At the meeting, Putin expressed his satisfaction with the fact that Kim "has finally made it to Moscow after such a lengthy trip" by train along the Trans-Siberian Railway, the same route Kim’s late father once traveled.

After their meeting, the two leaders signed a milestone declaration which focused on strategic stability and the guidelines of expanding bilateral friendship and cooperation.

The two sides agreed to "promote and enhance friendly relations" in line with the joint declaration of July 19, 2000 and the Russia-DPRK friendship and good neighborly cooperation treaty of February 9, 2000.

Putin and Kim agreed during their talks to promote a Russian- DPRK political dialogue on the Korean issue and international affairs, and discussed many topical international problems, deputy head of the Russian presidential administration Sergei Prikhodko told reporters following the talks.

The two leaders spoke for an independent and peaceful solution to the issue of reunification of the Korean Peninsula, and against "any outside obstacles to this process" as "unacceptable."

The DPRK stated that withdrawal of the American troops from South Korea is an urgent essential issue" and is to promote peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. Russia expressed appreciation of this position and stressed the need to secure peace and stability in the region by non-military means.

(Xinhua News Agency 08/05/2001)

http://www.china.org.cn/english/2001/Aug/17008.htm

[Maverick68]

simply cut the head off the snake...

[Blood of Tyrants]

the U.S. would not settle for a peace that left Kim Jong-il in power.

With Obastard in power? Ypu have got to be kidding! Obastard would INSIST that Kim Jong-il remain in power and then he would publicly bow to him!

[null and void]

It’ll happen, thousands will be killed, Obama will do nothing.

Nothing? Nonsense!

He'll blame Bush.

[Vermont Lt]

Thoughts and prayers to you and your sons.

We live in tough times.

[null and void]

...Or maybe Eisenhower...

[Joe 6-pack]

"Seoul, a city of 1 million, could be flattened..."

Not bad for AOL News...only off by a factor of 10; they're getting better.

[Vermont Lt]

I am all for not getting involved anywhere, anytime. Just take our troops out of their first.

That is the part O will forget.

And our sons and daughters will pay the price.

[Recon Dad]

A lot of the assumptions in these scenario's center around what Zero will do. I contend he will do nothing out of fear.

The South will be warned by the Chicoms and nothing will have changed other than major damage to the South.

[aeonspromise]

Duh_bummer would blame America’s arrogance to dare to hold back the forces of an oligarchic dictatorship hell bent on killing all who oppose their total domination and removal of freedom,

[Genoa]

The immediate US response would be a personal appearance by Soetoro at the UN.

[Vermont Lt]

Having never been over that way, is it possible we will start to see a quiet evacuation? People just getting up and going to visit mom and dad for the weekend?

Or is this just another “exercise” by KIJ?

[Errant]

IMO this is an incident that should never have been acknowledged publicly or the retribution thereof...

Unfortunately with idiots in charge we're headed for WWIII...

[stylin19a]

more MASH reruns...

[dimk]

I think a very likely move by the north will be a nuclear attack vs Japan. Their goal would be to draw Japan into the war for propaganda purposes, also taking out military bases on Okinawa will be used as pretext..

I think destruction of Seoul is a bit overstated, South Korean Air force will sweep north korean out of the skies in a matter of hours, artillery and rockets bombarding the city will not last much longer. Biggest problems will be once South has to counter attack and take over North. Fanatical soldiers, huge numbers and very good terrain for defense is a bad combination.

[dila813]

Back to the Future:
Here are Tomorrow’s Headlines Today:
1. Obama orders transport ships from Hawaii to transport combat forces out of Korea.
2. Obama orders Hospital Ships to treat the wounded in Korea
3. Obama offers refugee status to all South Koreans
4. Obama orders construction of Korean Refugee Camps on the Alaskan Attu Island
5. Obama declares a Safety Air Corridor between Alaska and Korea
6. Obama declares a Air and Sea Safety Zone within 2500 Miles of Korea
7. Nobel Peace Prize Committee Awards Obama his second Nobel Peace Price for His Restraint in dealing with North Korea
8. Estimated Dead and Wounded in South Korea is estimated over 8M
9. Dear Leader Celebrates Korean Reunification Day
10. Tokyo Announces the Expansion of their Military and Plans for the Development of Nuclear Weapons
11. Tokyo Cancels US Base Leases and Requests US Troops Leave within 3 Months.
12. Philippines signs agreement with China to drop claims to disputed islands

[tacticalogic]

Thank you. They play a dangerous game out there.

[Tamar1973]

I think the U.S. should close our base on the DMZ, evacuate all of the Korean Christians, and let the rest of them annihilate each other.

There's a yahoo article on the same topic and they recommended evacuation all NK's hottie women first.

After all, there's a shortage of brides in South Korea's rural areas. Importing some NK brides would stop SK from importing women from Vietnam and the Philipines. /snicker/sarc

[pappyone]

It is not possible to have a “quiet evacuation” in S Korea. Note that every year the SK’s celebrate Chuseok holiday when they ALL get on the road to visit relatives. It is the only instance worldwide where the US Army declares road conditions black, no driving, in a non-war environment.
So the answer to your question is: If the SK’s really think that war is eminent you will see a mass migration south all at once and traffic jams that not only gridlock civilian movement, but will impact military moves.

[Erasmus]

Obama will reach out and engage with China when this is over.

I wonder if he'll offer a ring and set a date.