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I think a very likely move by the north will be a nuclear attack vs Japan. Their goal would be to draw Japan into the war for propaganda purposes, also taking out military bases on Okinawa will be used as pretext..

I think destruction of Seoul is a bit overstated, South Korean Air force will sweep north korean out of the skies in a matter of hours, artillery and rockets bombarding the city will not last much longer. Biggest problems will be once South has to counter attack and take over North. Fanatical soldiers, huge numbers and very good terrain for defense is a bad combination.

Does NK have an air force? How many and what kind of planes?

I think destruction of Seoul is a bit overstated, South Korean Air force will sweep north korean out of the skies in a matter of hours, artillery and rockets bombarding the city will not last much longer. “

Seoul is only 50 miles or so south of the border-where artillery is massed than can lob shells further than 50 miles.

I don’t think S Korea will have any time to get those planes into the air. Especially if trouble starts in the middle of the night.

More likely NK troops will stream across the border behind heavy shelling and occupy as much territory as swiftly as possible. Our forces will be hamstrung for fear of killing large numbers of civilians. Any serious attack on NK proper will result in a nuclear attack against Japan.

I'm not sure what part China will play except it will be well planned and leave us with few options. The administration will be asked to give up an important prize to China in return for China calling off their NK dogs. If Obama and Hillary do not accept, it may lead to war beginning in the far east instead of the middle east but war is on the horizon IMO.

Nork artillery cannot reach Seoul to any extent, certainly not enough to "flatten" the city. This piece of Pyongyang-inspired scare-propaganda has been repeated so often by contrarian (lefty) media that even many conservatives in this country take it at face value.

Look at the map, people.

At its closest point, the northern boundary of Seoul lies 36 km from the DMZ. Of the Norks' tube artillery, only the handful of 180mm S-23s and a somewhat larger number of 130mm M-46s can reach that far and only then with special ammunition the Norks aren't known to have and wouldn't have in quantity even if they did. Even that would require that the guns be lined up right on the demarcation line.

The multiple launch rocket systems available to the North Koreans are similarly short on reach, and much harder to conceal in deployment.

There are hundreds of ballistic missiles but, again, their effectiveness is vastly exaggerated in media accounts. All 650 of them would have about the fire-power of a 100 plane RAF or USAAF raid in World War2, something German cities could and did shake off on a regular basis. Of course, not all the Nork missiles would be expended against Seoul, since this would leave nothing for airfields or ports elsewhere.

By concentrating their entire obsolete air force in one sector, the Norks probably can overwhelm part of the air defense system and do major damage. They could only do this once however, since it would entail the loss of most of their aircraft.

That leaves the Norks with the nuclear option, which is not specific to the Seoul area and, indeed, would probably be targeted elsewhere for strategic and media reasons.

South Korean officials know all this, whether the media do or not. They are indeed weighing the threat against tolerating an ever escalating series of North Korean outrages and extortion attempts. It doesn't balance the way the conventional pundits think, however.

artillery and rockets bombarding the city will not last much longer.

The destruction of Seoul would be accomplished within 4 hours of the Norks letting all of their artillery off the leash. You really think they wont be employing NBC weapons via arty?