IF MD is accurate AND we see the same thing as we saw in the primaries where Obama got just what he polled...then it could be the one polling outfit that could claim somewhat of a "I told you so" in that they called Obama's numbers correctly....
Bottom line is this thing is not over....got to get out the vote and pray.
Would it be possible, with election fraud, for obamination to win illegally and because of the power of his negative thinking, not only in rallying the poor against the rich, the middle class into thinking they have it rough, but getting the republicans thinking they are going to lose, and they roll over dead on election day?
Good point. Let’s hope the pattern from the primaries holds true on Tuesday. Mason Dixon is one of the most reputable and accurate polling companies from what I’ve read over the years.
If you believe the PUMA's this week has has been right of of the Media playbook, the Obama playbook and Pollsters playbook
Hillary was told get out its over and yet she closed the last month even though it was over.
I see people didn't care if they were told it was over they still voted for Hillary.
WE MUST DO IT TOO VOTE FOR MAC AND PALIN.
M-D and Battleground both use minimal oversampling in their polls (usually less than 5 percent), as opposed to Pew, Zogby, and others which skew the Rat numbers by as much as ***15 percent*** and thus usually show preposterous and corresponding leads by Zer0.
There is no possible justification at all for 10 to 15 percent oversampling of Rats, yet plenty of pollsters do it.
Of course and predictably, the MSM NEVER offers an explanation or even a mention of the oversampling factor.
Ok, I wanna be happy about this. I have gone to RCP on the link provided and it says 0bama is a 50% or slightly above in FLA, PA, VA, NM, PA, NH. So tell me I’m reading it wrong. I hope I am but that’s what ot says.
I heard on Fox that Rove looks at Mason-Dixon for the states and Battleground poll for national. IBD is said to be another good poll. WE CAN DO IT PEOPLE! GET OUT AND VOTE AND WE WILL WIN!
Check out my thread above on Lee County, FL. This poll analysis is ok, but gee, we have actual votes that we can analyze now. If my math is right (always suspect), Lee County alone will turn in 32,000 MORE R votes for McCain in FL???
Never mind I get it , Mason Dixon not RCP average. Ok, that’s good.
Yes, get out and VOTE! If it’s close enough, they’ll still steal it.
Obama always seems to overpoll and underperform at the ballot box.
His campaign is all about manipulating the media and the pollsters. Tales of unprecedented enthusiasm among African-Americans and ‘the youth’ lead pollsters to weight their samples to reflect this, which, of course leads to media reports of an oncoming electoral juggernaut.
Yet, in state after state in the primary, Obama was a flop at the ballot box. It was only through the use of various hardball tactics in party caucuses, as well as the exclusion of the Michigan and Florida primaries, and the presence of the superdelegates that Obama was able to garner the nomination of the Democrat party.
Whenever Obama is exposed to middle America, middle America doesn’t like him. He needs some kind of edge, be it running in an extreme left wing area of Chicago or running in a party with caucuses dominated by the extreme left wing of his party.
Obama ran too narrow a campaign and not just ignored rural and exurban white Democrats, but he mocked them.
Anyways, The Reality Poll™ is holding steady at:
McCain 52%
Obama 47%
HOLY CRAP!!!!
Major MacMentum!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Fantastic news!
Not sure your link is good. No mention of Mason-Dixon in it, just RCP average, which has Obama above 50 in lots of battleground stattes.
One thing to remember in all of this is that we have word from political insiders that polls this year are getting response rates in the 15% to 20% range.
Social science journals generally will not publish studies based on surveys with a response rate of less than 30% (some insist on 33%, others are slack and will take well-designed studies with a 27% response rate). Why? The problem of non-response bias: there may be systematic characteristics which cause survey targets to be unavailable or to refuse to participate. Even a 30% response rate is subject to this phenomenon.
Between folks who don’t want to be thought ‘racist’ for opposing Obama, PUMAs who are either lying and saying they support Obama, but will vote for McCain (I suspect a small effect), and the fact that the idle poor are more likely to waste the 20 min. a phone survey takes, even polls that don’t deliberately oversample D’s this year have a built in bias for Obama in their numbers.
Don’t give up! Work on getting out the vote!
Same as Kerry/Gore. That is the number to watch.
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
Pundits stated if Obama was not over 50% he would not win.
bump
