Hurricane Ike Live Thread III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[Red_Devil 232]

I hope you will be posting on FR after this. This ain’t the De Nile flooding!

[penelopesire]

“Well...not ALL structures... some of the stone buildings survived the 1900 Storm. They’ll still be there..”

If a huge tanker or ship rides in on those waves and hits one of those buildings..it is going to come down, no matter what it is made of..or how tall it is.

This is truly a nightmare scenario!

[Xenalyte]

What’s things look like in your area?

I just went out to procure a little more cash (no problem, incidentally), and took Kirkwood south to Westheimer, then Westheimer west to Dairy Ashford, whence north to Briar Forest, then back home.

Houses are being boarded up all along Briar Forest, but they’re the ones with the big plate-glass windows.

[HoHoeHeaux]

Lots of relevant web cams all on one page.

[RDTF]

my storm stud is Rob Marciano

[pax_et_bonum]

Hey,Xena! Take care!

[DollyCali]

You know I am just getting sick .. physically sick.. reading this thread & understanding the major impact this will be for topography, economics, and MOST OF ALL

HUMAN LIFE LOST

The power of water with a rage is incredible. I watched a friend die in rough waters while we kayaked several years ago.. Experienced at all levels & traveled the world at the roughest waters. I knew I was beyond my ability & got to the river edge fortunately & watched.. The thought of that monster Hurricane bearing down on people is beyond frightening.

May God be with them. We all make our own decisions in life.. Some are good & some are bad. Now and then one is deadly & it is our last decision.

[OBXWanderer]

If the Flagship Hotel (that dump on the pier) got washed away it’d be a good bit of urban renewal.

Amen to that, that leper colony over the sea was bad BEFORE they completely filled it with Katrina refugees, I cannot even fathom what it is like now. If all the roaches on Galveston are looking for high ground there, they better look elsewhere, cause that place is FULL UP.

[HoHoeHeaux]

Lots of relevant web cams all on one page.

[Moose4]

Sure, I finally found it. It was posted about 7:00 am, and I think it that the estimated track has shifted a bit further west since then, meaning that Galveston would be hit even harder. This graphic seems to indicate that Port Arthur would catch the worst of the surge, but now I'm not so sure.

}:-)4

[Xenalyte]

I think where I am is defined as west-southwest. We’re at Briar Forest and Kirkwood, in the Westchase district.

Eaker and TheMom are a tad southwest of us, more in the Alief area.

[dirtboy]

I am not in imminent danger. I’m am high and dry. Most of my neighbors are still here, only about 10% have left the area. We’re in a good spot. Rita was nothing here, not a single thing. We’ve had worse afternoon thunderstorms that that. Alicia was a non-event also. Alison, a little flooding around us but we were high and dry. I would not stay if I thought I was in danger. I did evacuate for Rita but my mother rode it out and it hit her (east of us) instead of us. Her house was over 40 years old and she had some limbs down but no damage to the house. I am not worried about this one either. We have a big truck if flooding started too early, we could be out of here in a few minutes.

You are COMPLETELY misinterpreting the dangers of this storm compared to the others. Rita tracked well to the east of you, and you were on the weak side of the storm. Ike is on track to send the worst of the surge right into you. Ike is not a major wind threat. It is a surge threat comparable to Katrina, by all estimates. If you wait until you see flooding, it's too late. You should leave NOW. If not, please freepmail someone your address so we can send over authorities after the storm to see if you are still alive. 150 people are already being rescued from Bolivar because they didn't leave in time. Don't be stuck on stupid like they were.

[HoHoeHeaux]

Sorry! Link

http://www.livenewscameras.com/map.html

[pax_et_bonum]

I couldn’t agree with you more.

I’m also concerned that many people who should have evacuated didn’t because of bad Rita evacuation experiences.

I’ve heard that from lots of people during this hurricane season.

[Abigail Adams]

Maybe someone has already commented to you, but here’s what I’d do. Stock up on water, fill up some large containers and small containers if you can. You might need it for drinking or flushing the toilet. Have a way to cook food, like propane or charcoal for the grill, or wood for fire, or candles for warming up ready-to-eat foods (set the pot on a “box” of wood or maybe set it up on some rocks). Have lots of easy food, things that don’t need cooking or are easy to heat. Have batteries on hand, or fuel for a generator. I hope that helps!

[mathluv]

Harris Faulkner just mentioned something like that, but I thought she meant some who had not evacuated from Galveston.

[texasredtop]

The worst ones were when I was a child. Before I was 10, Audrey (CAT 4 at landfall) and Camille (the second most intense hurricane to hit the US). I was born and raised in Louisiana. I’m not worried about the wind, it’s not even going to be 100 mph when it gets here, we’re watching the potential for flooding.

[AFPhys]

Jeff Masters' latest entry “Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike’s rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina’s, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the exceptional size of Ike. According to the latest wind field estimate (Figure 1), the diameter of Ike’s tropical storm and hurricane force winds are 550 and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Katrina numbers at landfall were 440 and 210 miles, respectively. As I discussed in yesterday’s blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane’s Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina’s total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border. The Texas storm surge record is held by Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas.” ---<>---<>---<>---<>---<>--- Here's the real problem. Forget the wind - it is the AREA of this thing - water is getting sucked UP by this thing in a huge area. I think this will hit as a Cat.2 - no difference, though - the problem with this is NOT wind - it is the Area&Pressure over that area.

[lainie]

Ya know, he’s easy on the eyes.

It’s weird he has such a similar name as that guy from Survivor.. that’s what I thought they said at first. (Mariano)

[patton]

Where is Bolivar?