Posted on 09/12/2008 5:12:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.
The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.
Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.
Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours
Discussion Updated every 6 hours
Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar
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Additional Resources:
Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site
KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston
KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi
Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)
I hope your coffee is in a thermos, and you have another pot ready to go. One hot cup of coffee and one hot meal at a time during the storms.
CNN was showing the same guy just now.
DG,
I worked at Sterling Chemicals for 5 years... I was there on Hurricane Duty when the MONSTER Gilbert was supposed to come there. Thankfully, it didn’t.. or, I might not be here today. :-)
But.. yea.. I have a REAL good idea what it’s going to be like around there... and, it’s gonna be BAD!
who has the best TV coverage of this...please. prayers up from GA for all in Ike’s path...
it’ll be wet soon enough!
The pressure matters for the surge, not the width of the storm or eye. Ike's eye is open so one good thing is it has prevented rapid strengthening. No doubt Ike is bad, but looking at your charts we're talking 9-12 feet at 952mb instead of 13-18 at 931. Every foot lower will help.
neither will geraldo.
If the center of the eyewall makes landfall 20-25 miles SW of Galveston, it means the nastiest part of the eyewall, the NE quadrant, will hit Galveston for several hours, and the surge will be pushed NNW up the bay and into Clear Lake, Deer Park, Texas City and other such environs. This sucker is intensifying upon landfall. Which means it will hit with much more fury than people are expecting, and the impacts will carry further inland as well.
Is Geraldo himself actually going to stay in that building? He must have a death wish.
I'm going back & forth between the Weather Channel & Fox, and CNN now & then (although they just resurrected Dan Rather of all people.)
Brings to mind...candles are never a good idea during hurricanes. If there is a breach to the building, the candle can start a fire quickly. Best to save the candles until after the winds ease.
AFPhys wrote:
great graphics
The data I was getting hit 10 feet about 2 hours ago, and I haven’t been able to get more. Whether the
station is gone or just overloaded, I’m not sure.
That was very near low tide. High tide is about at 6AM
*********
I expect several feet of rapidly increased surge anytime now, per the last IR image posted here.
are you guys sure it is not Steve Karrigan from Fox?
He was wearing goggles and a blue jacket. He is known to wear a helmet also when the winds pick up.
New vortex data up:
Storm IKE: Observed by AF #304
Storm #09 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #09: 33
Date/Time of Recon Report: September 13, 2008 02:35:40 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 28 ° 31 ‘ N 094 ° 24 ‘ W (28.52° N 94.40° W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 2704 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 89 Knots (102.35 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 25 Nautical Miles (28.75 miles) From Center At Bearing 266°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 083 Knots (95.45 MPH) From 357°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 036 Nautical Miles (41.4 Miles) From Center At Bearing 268°
Minimum Pressure: 953 Millibars (28.141 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 10°C (50°F) / 3051 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 16°C (60.8°F) / 3050 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 12°C (53.6°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN NE
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: C50
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles
Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 100 KT E Quadrant at 01:04:20 Z
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?text
were the homes in the 1900 hurricane built up on stilts? anyone know?
At the end of the day, all of our differences over Rudy versus Fred versus Mitt are all put into proper perspective over a looming catastrophe such as this.
Amen
I renewed my knowledge about the Galveston 1900 two weeks ago.
Yes, it was horrible. This may rival it. If it does not, it will only be due to the forecasting ability we have now.
Ooops .. didn’t look. Thank you .. ;)
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