Hurricane Ike Live Thread III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[tioga]

we will mourn them, but this storm looks bad, everyone should have taken note and fled.

[Red_Devil 232]

We were lucky to a point after Katrina. We had a small 6.2K generator and had filled up its tank (5gal.) and two 5 gal. gas cans. We ran our refrig., a fan, TV and Sat. receiver, lamp and other things off and on (coffee pot, microwave).

We were lucky to a point and that point was when our initial gas supply ran out which was in about 2 days. We had a very hard time finding gas stations that had power and fuel. When we did they were 30-40 miles away and limiting fuel purchases to 10 gals. It was hectic trying to keep enough fuel in a vehicle so we could make it to a gas station and back and fill up gas cans for the gen.

We ended up owning five 5 gal. gas cans and a few smaller ones. They are all full just in case at this moment.

[dirtboy]

Man, the eye is DEFINITELY rebuilding itself. It was 60 miles across just 2-3 hours ago. Now a band has wrapped almost all the way around with a 30 mile or so diameter. And that is bad news for Galveston, and it also means the eastern eyewall is probably going to run right up Galveston Bay as well.

[proudofthesouth]

“I have literally been sick today, as I realized how horrible this storm is”

Me too. Prayers for EVERYONE in its path.

[RikaStrom]

God, I cannot wait until Monday and all this is over.

You and me both. I haven't lost power yet, but the cable is flickering pretty hard.

we're about to lock down the house, keep the dog inside until morning. I am hoping that by the time I wake up, most of it will be over.

(sigh) This is a hellacious storm.

[Mad Dawgg]

"Waves could be 50 feet tall, said hurricane center spokesman and meteorologist Dennis Feltgen."

Oh Shit.

[proudofthesouth]

And the ones that God has mercy on and allows to survive, well I wouldn’t be surprised if they attempted to sue the state or federal govt for not forcibly having them removed.

[AFPhys]

I loved the discussion at 5PM:

STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE. STATE OF THE ART TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION.

Quite refreshing to see that!

[nwctwx]

History shows a storm moving this direction into TX has a decent shot at strengthening at landfall. The little shelf off the coast is very warm and if conditions above are good, watch out. I thought the overall large circulation might keep Ike from tightening up too much too quick on the way in, but satellite this evening is troubling. It’s one thing to deal eith the given surge at this point, but once you ramp up winds a little more then that becomes a much bigger problem too. I’d still say it doesn’t go up more than 10kts, but the next few hours can be critical.

[toomanygrasshoppers]

On one of the Houston channels an official was taking questions and someone asked about looting. The official said “we don’t have looters in Texas”. lol That’s b/c we are all armed.

[nwctwx]

It’s all a guessing game with these things.. even the best are only making an extremely educated one.

[metmom]

Storm surge of 20 feet with 30 foot waves. Yeah, the term isn’t technically correct, but the math adds up.

[CedarDave]

Wow! Governor Perry at news conference - talking about and naming all the locations that will be under water starting about midnight and continuing all night.

[lainie]

KHOU: police are trying to ferry Seabrook residents to the mainland — they are cut off/stranded at this time. Should’ve evacuated earlier of course.

[Mad Dawgg]

“The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20-foot surge — a rapid rising of water inundating areas and moving inland — for a large swath of Texas and the Louisiana coasts. Above that, the center predicts “large and dangerous battering waves.” Waves could be 50 feet tall, said hurricane center spokesman and meteorologist Dennis Feltgen.”

Mystery solved, they got storm surge and wave height confused. Still freaking scary though

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,420783,00.html

Thanks Abigail

I am not telling Mom though I just will tell her the surge isn't projected that high. No Need for her to fret over something she has no control over.

[nwctwx]

The inner eyewall is now closed on radar... look for dropping pressures.

[Jaded]

In pasa-git-down-dena it’s just windy and cloudy with the occasional sprinkle.

The neighborhood kids are BORED right now.

[ishmac]

The wind just picked up here, too--that's at Richmond Ave near Montrose. Just came back from a spin around the neighborhood. The Menil Museum isn't boarded up, but their bookstore is (must have the artworks in the basement or something). Maybe 1 in 15 houses is boarded up. People were still out walking around.

Air is real hazy. I could see the two towers of the Med Center and the building with the upside down pyramid from my apt complex, but the air was really clogged with stuff. It feels now like a good little summer squall is about to hit. Of course, it looks like we're in for a lot more than a summer squall!!

[jdub]

Waves could be 50 feet tall, said hurricane center spokesman and meteorologist Dennis Feltgen.

Either Mr. Feltgen didn't take any oceanography classes, or he is unaware that the GOM is only about 60 feet deep even 30 miles out. thats why when you see the wave height forecasts the heights drop as they get near the coast.

[Jaded]

KTRK is interviewing people who stayed on the Strand in Galveston. M’kay.