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MAGAZINE SHOCK: REPUBLICANS WILL HOLD CONGRESS
Drudge Report ^ | October 21, 2006 | JIM MCTAGUE

Posted on 10/21/2006 3:13:37 PM PDT by West Coast Conservative

JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers, BARRON's claims in their next edition. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it.

Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.

Developing...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006election; barrons; congress; democrat; democrats; elections; notbreakingnews; predictions; republican; retain; vote; votegop
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To: onyx
Apparently, you do not understand my post.

And how is that?

301 posted on 10/22/2006 7:24:34 AM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: AmericaUnited

Read you idiotic response to my post. I fully realize Kean is not a conservative, but he'll be a whole lot better than the democrat. ALL I said, was that getting elected is the tricky part and rather than take issue with his campaign rhetoric, I will gladly wait to slam him until he makes incorrect votes.


302 posted on 10/22/2006 7:44:48 AM PDT by onyx (We have two political parties: the American Party and the Anti-American Party.)
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To: onyx

No, to me, slamming him for making 'incorrect votes' in a BLUE state is IDIOTIC.


303 posted on 10/22/2006 8:43:39 AM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: aimee5291
Whats with Joe Scarborough he seems almost giddy with the prospect of GOP losing??

I have some suspicions. They are conjecture, and some dot connecting, but I think I am on target.

Joe S. is from a very conservative Florida district. I once lived their, in P'Cola Fl. as we called it.

Joe was a very close friend of Gary Condit. Condit had a party condo and it is my belief that Joe participated in some fun and games with him. I think that after the investigation into the death of that girl, Joe was asked by the GOP to resign his seat or some of these things would come out into the press. He resented it, but resigned.

I'm thinking that he would be quite happy to see bad things happen to the GOP as a direct result of his desire for payback.

Like I said, it is just some conjecture and dot connecting.

304 posted on 10/22/2006 8:53:22 AM PDT by Cold Heat (I just analyze it, I did not create the mess...so go pound sand:-))
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To: aimee5291
In my reply I may have led you to believe Joe S. resigned his seat, but what he did was simply bow out, when it came for re-election, and he gave some lame excuse about personal problems....yadda,yadda,yadda....
305 posted on 10/22/2006 8:57:29 AM PDT by Cold Heat (I just analyze it, I did not create the mess...so go pound sand:-))
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To: Babu
"I never doubted all along. And I think we might do even a little bit better than that -- it's not time for Evil to even come close to prevailing ..."

The Dems have assumed wrongly that the disgust conservatives feel towards many Republicans in office for pushing liberal policies means we will instead support THEIR liberal policies. Couple that with the House being the only thing standing between us and the President's amnesty plans, and conservatives will keep the Republicans in control of the House this year.
306 posted on 10/22/2006 10:13:39 AM PDT by EnochPowellWasRight
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To: West Coast Conservative
Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it.

I think it's all just a democrat wet dream, too. People will vote as they always have.
We'll keep both the House and Senate. The media created fantasy is just that - a fantasy.

307 posted on 10/22/2006 10:21:15 AM PDT by concerned about politics ("Get thee behind me, Liberal.")
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To: Cicero

The key mistake the D's are making is that they think the voters hate Bush as much as they do...the voters are diappointed in Bush, but they do not hate him...he is not a Nixon during Watergate,,,,nor is he an LBJ during Viet Nam...in the end, the House and Senate will be held.


308 posted on 10/22/2006 10:27:23 AM PDT by Bushbacker (f-)
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To: sizzlemeister
Noob -

Barron's is not a DNC parrot. The article goes to great lengths to describe how successful their corollary has been.

309 posted on 10/22/2006 1:31:40 PM PDT by StAnDeliver
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To: freeangel
"Oh, I don't know. If you count all the money behind the MSM, I think the dems probably come out with the biggest bucks."

Seriously (I'm not criticizing your post, BTW), read the article, their methodology is simple & sound. They propose it takes outlier circumstances like a truly rotten economy to prompt an 'overthrow'.

Otherwise, Barron's >campaign funds=winner corollary is nearly perfect. The only additional baseline I would have liked would be to view the role of incumbency.

310 posted on 10/22/2006 1:39:04 PM PDT by StAnDeliver
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To: WOSG
"Grain o salt time, its a weak methodology based on fundraising comparisons. It works as a good correlation, but it wont predict undercurrents of voter sentiment like we may have in 06."

Not at all. Barrons is up front about three outliers since 1958 (and I only use '58 as the demarcation point because they don't indicate how much further back they go, so let's use '58 anyway) -- and keep in mind they indicate for the three outliers that a truly rotten economy was the primary influence.

That's 48 House election cycles -- 45 where their analysis held up, and 3 that didn't. That's a 6% error rate. Good enough for me, given the advantage$ of incumbency.

311 posted on 10/22/2006 1:52:51 PM PDT by StAnDeliver
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To: MaxMax

You are NOT alone. At least plus one on the Senate, at least plus four in the House. More than the average number of new faces all around, though...

Think: Demographics and job approval ratings, with money as third on the list - if that. The internet changes everything else.


312 posted on 10/22/2006 2:00:24 PM PDT by rwsteel (One man can change the world. Wanna see how? Here! Hold muh beer and watch this...)
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To: Cold Heat
I think that after the investigation into the death of that girl, Joe was asked by the GOP to resign his seat or some of these things would come out into the press. He resented it, but resigned.

Amazing. That would explain a few things.

313 posted on 10/22/2006 2:45:19 PM PDT by alrea
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To: StAnDeliver
Noob - Barron's is not a DNC parrot. The article goes to great lengths to describe how successful their corollary has been.

"Noob"? As in "newbie"? That's the parlance of zit-faced teens who post on message boards in between rounds of Doom 3 death-matches. I'm quite surprised to find it here on FR.

Irregardless of the accuracy of the analysis, the last thing GOP'ers need to tie their horses to NOW is a "credible" article suggesting the base doesn't need to be as up in arms as it appears to be.

314 posted on 10/22/2006 2:54:17 PM PDT by sizzlemeister
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To: MaxMax
No one wants war. But is peace so sweet, or life so dear as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it Almighty God.
315 posted on 10/22/2006 3:31:37 PM PDT by attiladhun2 (Islam is a despotism so vile that it would warm the heart of Orwell's Big Brother)
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To: Babu

I don't see the discontent out there, the catastrophic revulsion towawrd incumbents, that the liberal media and the dem machine keep saying exists. I'm with you on this.


316 posted on 10/22/2006 3:36:02 PM PDT by GretchenM (What does it profit a man to gain the whole world and lose his soul? Please meet my friend, Jesus.)
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To: West Coast Conservative

The Democrats are doing in this election what they do in every election. The mainstream media is used relentlessly in the weeks leading up to an election to "predict" a disastrous downfall for the Republicans. The idea is to use the media to brainwash conservatives into thinking that it is a waste of time to go out and vote. And with an incumbent Republican President sitting in the White House there's always going to be plenty of stuff for them to throw mud at. This would be the case even if 9/11 had never happened, if Iraq never happened, and if Mark Foley were a paragon of virtue. I'm amazed that more R's haven't figured this out. If they do pull off a victory, even a slim one, the sleeze party will accuse them of voter fraud.


317 posted on 10/22/2006 3:38:51 PM PDT by Cookie123
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To: aimee5291

Scarred Burro has been sucking Beltway air too long, it has now addled his thinking. Seriously, most of his friends and neighbors are Beemer Bolsheviks, in order to get love, he knocks Republicans and finds he now gets invites to all the right shindigs. I'm sure all the attention makes him giddy. When I see his smug mug on the tv set, I switch channels post haste, he is beginning to remind me of Chrissy Boy.


318 posted on 10/22/2006 3:45:43 PM PDT by attiladhun2 (Islam is a despotism so vile that it would warm the heart of Orwell's Big Brother)
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To: onyx
I hate to tell you this, but this is major wishful thinking. They're basing their analysis solely on the amount of money GOP and Dem candidates have raised. Campaign contributions don't decide elections. They help, but they don't decide them.

If they did, the Dems would never win an election, since GOP candidates have more contributions the vast majority of the time.

319 posted on 10/22/2006 4:11:30 PM PDT by curiosity
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To: sizzlemeister
"Irregardless of the accuracy of the analysis, the last thing GOP'ers need to tie their horses to NOW is a "credible" article suggesting the base doesn't need to be as up in arms as it appears to be."

Are you normally this stupid, noob?

320 posted on 10/22/2006 4:11:34 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (IBTZ)
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