MAGAZINE SHOCK: REPUBLICANS WILL HOLD CONGRESS

Drudge Report ^ | October 21, 2006 | JIM MCTAGUE

[West Coast Conservative]

JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers, BARRON's claims in their next edition. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it.

Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.

Developing...

[dixiechick2000]

"You are the ultimate troll."


LOLOLOL!

Me?

I think I hit a nerve. ;o)

[mainepatsfan]

I think this is the first report I've seen that doesn't just assume that GOP voters are going to stay home in large numbers.

[goresalooza]

The dims cannot tell the nation's voters how THEY FEEL on any issue.

So why oh why do we need to let them tell US how WE FEEL on issues?

They are clueless loozas. I don't buy a damn thing the losing lamestream media "tells us" anymore. Nothing. Vote the rats out, it's Prozac and Jack Daniels time for them already.

[Caipirabob]

Now deprived of her "rightful position" Speaker Pelosi was unavailable for comment...

[Gondring]

Who cares about this article? All that matters are the votes in November!

Oops...that's what we're supposed to say when we don't like the article!

[Gondring]

However, it would be delusional to think that Republicans will vote for the Democrats because of Iraq or Foley. Far from it. Republicans who vote regularly will certainly get out and vote Republican.

Actually, that's not so true in tbe Philadelphia suburbs, where the registration figures are 2:1 Republican over Dem, yet Kerry came within one vote in my precinct. That's why three of the seats in jeopardy are right in the Philadelphia suburbs. I heard the anti-Bush sentiment in Republicans here during phone bank calls of 2004..I can't imagine it now!

[timer]

In this land of political punditry, is there anyone who keeps score? To wit, there are true prophets and false prophets. Various groups give congressmen/senators ratings from 1% to 99% supportive of our position, so why not a rating service on CNN and others who predict certain election outcomes? Thus when they make their AUTHORITATIVE predictions you can immediately see their batting average by going to a website and its ratings for said pundit.

[GOPJ]

Sweet!

[Raycpa]

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     ​​​​​Election 2004: Congress

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Polls listed chronologically. All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older.

    
► STATE POLLS -- including election trial heats, and job ratings for the President, governors and members of Congress -- can be found in the subscriber area of our web site. INFO

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George Washington University Battleground Poll conducted by the Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Snell Perry & Associates (D). Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 2004. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. (Rolling sample, as of 9/13/04.) MoE ± 3.1.
					.
". . . If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate in your district?" If undecided: "And which party's candidate do you lean toward at this time?" Options rotated
					.
		Republican	Democrat	Unsure
		%	%	%
	10/31 - 11/1/04	47	44	9
	10/27-28 & 31/04	46	43	11
	10/25-28/04	44	44	12
	10/18-21/04	42	46	12
	10/11-14/04	40	44	16
	10/4-7/04	42	43	15
	9/27-30/04	42	46	12
	9/20-23/04	43	44	13
	9/13-16/04	41	45	14
					.
	8/15-17/04	43	46	11
	6/20-23/04	41	49	11
	3/28-31/04	39	46	14
	9/03	42	43	15	​​​​​

 

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,866 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 1,573 likely voters (MoE ± 3).
					.
"If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" If undecided: "As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate?" Options rotated. In 10/29-31/04 poll, respondents who had already voted were asked which party's candidate they voted for.
					.
		Republican	Democrat	Other (vol.)/ Undecided
		%	%	%
					.
	Among likely voters:
	10/29-31/04	47	48	5
	10/22-24/04	50	47	3
	9/3-5/04	48	46	6
	7/30 - 8/1/04	47	47	6
	1/04	50	45	5
					.
	Among registered voters:
	10/29-31/04	45	49	6
	10/22-24/04	47	49	4
	9/3-5/04	44	48	8
	7/30 - 8/1/04	44	49	7
	1/04	46	45	9
	11/03	47	46	7

 

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Bill McInturff (R). Oct. 29-31, 2004. N=1,014 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.
						.
"What is your preference for the outcome of the upcoming congressional elections: a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?"
						.
		Republicans	Democrats	Unsure
		%	%	%
	Among likely voters:
	10/29-31/04	43	44	13
	10/16-18/04	44	44	12
						.
	Trend, among registered voters:
	9/17-19/04	42	46	12
	9/17-19/04	42	46	12
	6/25-28/04	42	44	14
	5/1-3/04	41	44	15
	3/6-8/04	42	45	13
						.
	Among ALL adults:
	1/04	42	43	15
	12/03	42	42	16

 

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 27-29, 2004. N=1,005 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 4); 882 likely voters (MoE ± 4).
						.
"If the election for U.S. CONGRESS were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward the Republican or the Democrat?" Options rotated
						.
		Republican	Democrat	Other (vol.)/ Undecided		.
		%	%	%		.
	Among likely voters:
	10/27-29/04	49	44	7		.
	10/21-22/04	47	46	7		.
	10/14-15/04	46	44	10		.
						.
	Among registered voters:
	10/27-29/04	46	45	9		.
	10/21-22/04	45	45	10		.
	10/14-15/04	43	46	11		.
	7/29-30/04	41	51	8		.
	3/18-19/04	42	49	9		.

 

Democracy Corps Poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D). Oct. 26-28, 2004. N=1,503 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.5.
					.
"Again, thinking about the elections in November, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?"
					.
		Republican	Democrat	Other (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	10/26-28/04	45	48	1	5
	10/26-27/04	45	47	2	6
	10/24-25/04	42	51	1	6
	10/20-21/04	44	49	1	6
	10/17-18/04	46	48	1	5
	10/14-16/04	45	49	1	5
	10/10-11/04	45	48	1	6
	10/3-5/04	45	49	1	6
	10/3-5/04	45	49	1	6
	9/26-28/04	46	47	2	5
	9/19-21/04	45	48	1	6
	9/12-14/04	44	48	1	7
	9/6-9/04	45	46	2	7
	8/2-5/04	41	51	2	6
	7/10-13/04	42	49	1	8
	6/14-17/04	44	48	1	8
	5/10-13/04	44	46	1	9
	4/19-22/04	45	47	0	8
	3/16-21/04	45	47	1	7
	2/10-15/04	42	49	0	8
	1/13-18/04	43	48	1	9
	10/03	42	48	1	9
	9/03	42	47	1	11
	8/03	39	45	1	15
	7/03	45	44	2	10
	6/03	44	43	1	11
	5/03	45	43	1	11
	1/03	43	44	1	11

 

Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted by Ipsos-Public Affairs. Oct. 18-20, 2004. N=1,330 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.5.
					.
"And if the election for Congress were held today, would you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?"
					.
		Republicans	Democrats	Neither (vol.)	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	Among likely voters:
	10/18-20/04	46	47	4	3
	10/4-6/04	44	48	5	3
	9/20-22/04	49	46	3	2
	9/7-9/04	49	46	3	2
					.
	Trend, among registered voters:
	9/7-9/04	47	45	5	3
	8/3-5/04	44	48	6

[LibLieSlayer]

I think it was Ras or Strategy something. I wish I had earmarked it. I will next time. There are more and more polls showing momentum. I am praying hard!

LLS

[onyx]

GOP = gaining momentum. I guess Lincoln Lib is too.

[MaestroLC]

One headline from Barron says GOP wins, another from Newsweek/AP says Dems win...

Agenda and bias. These polls are fixed by the media. This is not news, it is activism and propaganda. I refuse to believe and get sucked into any of them.

Just go out and vote at the only poll that really matters!!

[LS]

Your assessment is certainly understandable, and logical.

Unfortunately, if the GOP doesn't GAIN seats in both houses, I fear the drive-bys will portray this as a shocking loss. I think even if we gain a seat or two in the Senate, and lose a couple in the House, it will be portrayed as a loss.

[AmericaUnited]

Bump. Getting elected in NJ is the tricky part. I can forgive him for "some" of his remarks and wait to slam until he votes incorrectly.

If he votes a hard conservative line, he's a one termer. PERIOD!!! What's not to understand about that?

[onyx]

Apparently, you do not understand my post.

[Disturbin]

Pat B on the Mclaughlin Group the other day:

"The GOP WILL LOSE the House"

LOL!

[aimee5291]

Whats with Joe Scarborough he seems almost giddy with the prospect of GOP losing??

[Dane]

Unfortunately, if the GOP doesn't GAIN seats in both houses, I fear the drive-bys will portray this as a shocking loss. I think even if we gain a seat or two in the Senate, and lose a couple in the House, it will be portrayed as a loss.

Not to the wacko democrat base. If they do not get the Congress, they will be disillusioned beyond repair and will be basically chanting Diebold with straitjackets on.

Also it will be a devastating blow to the drive by media because of their overt cheering for the democrats it would mean their influence is quickly declining like their profits.

[LS]

Oh, I agree there, Dane. If they lose seats in each house, this may very well be the beginning of the end for the modern Dem party. They will absolutely explode in anger. Remember, NEXT election, the ratio is reversed, and the Dems defend TWICE as many senate seats as we do!!!!

[Rapscallion]

It gives me such anxiety to think about what the democrats would do to the economy, to taxes, to investment, to the country, to the progress made, to national security and even to WalMart. It is just unthinkable.