Posted on 08/07/2006 3:43:15 PM PDT by DAVEY CROCKETT
Tehran & Damascus Move to Lebanon Lebanon-born Walid Phares is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Author of the recent book Future Jihad, he was also one of the architects of 2004’s United Nations resolution 1559, which called for the disarming of Hezbollah. NRO editor Kathryn Lopez recently talked to Phares about what’s going on in the Mideast, what happened to the Cedar Revolution, and this war we’re all in.
Kathryn Jean Lopez: What is “Future Jihad”? Are we seeing it in the Mideast now?
Walid Phares: “Future Jihad,” which has already begun, refers to a new and potent form of Islamic terrorism, characterized by a Khumeinist-Baathist axis. These are the two trees of jihadism, so to speak — the Salafism and Wahabism embodied in al Qaeda and the sort of jihadism led by Iran and also including Syria, Hezbollah, and their allies in Lebanon.
The alliance has not been in entire agreement as to strategy. The al Qaeda branch began its “Future Jihad” in the 1990s; its efforts culminated on 9/11 and have continued explosively since then. The international “Salafists” aimed at the U.S. in the past decade in order to strengthen their jihads on various battlefields (Chechnya, India, Sudan, Algeria, Indonesia, Palestine, etc.). “Weaken the resolve of America,” their ideologues said, “and the jihadists would overwhelm all the regional battlefields.”
As I argue in Future Jihad, bin Laden and his colleagues miscalculated on the timing of the massive attack against the U.S. in 2001. While they wounded America, they didn’t kill its will to fight (as was the case, for instance, in the Madrid 3/11 attacks). I have heard many jihadi cadres online, and have seen al Jazeera commentators on television, offering hints of criticism about the timing. They were blaming al Qaeda for shooting its imagined “silver bullet” before insuring a strategic follow up. But bin Laden and Zawahiri believe 9/11 served them well, and has put a global mobilization into motion. Perhaps it has, but the U.S. counter strategy in the Middle East, chaotic as the region currently appears, has unleashed counter jihadi forces. The jury is still out as to the time factor: when these forces will begin to weaken the jihadists depends on our perseverance and the public understanding of the whole conflict.
The other “tree” of jihadism, with its roots in Iran, withheld fire after 9/11. They were content to watch the Salafists fight it out with the U.S.-led coalition in Afghanistan and Iraq, not to mention within the West, as terror cells were hunted down. Ahmedinejad, Assad, and Nasrallah were analyzing how far the US would go, and how far the Sunnis and Salafis would go as well.
The fall of the Taliban and of the Baath in Iraq, however, changed Iran and Syria’s patient plans. The political changes in the neighborhood, regardless of their immediate instability, were strongly felt in Tehran and Damascus (but unfortunately not in the U.S., judging from the political debate here), and pushed the Khumeinists and the Syrian Baathists to enter the dance, but carefully. Assad opened his borders to the jihadists in an attempt to crumble the U.S. role in Iraq, while Iran articulated al Sadr’s ideology for Iraq’s Shiia majority.
A U.S.-led response came swiftly in 2004 with the voting of UNSCR 1559, smashing Syria’s role in Lebanon and forcing Assad to withdraw his troops by April 2005. In response, the “axis” prepared for a counter attack on the Lebanese battlefield by assassinating a number of the Cedar Revolution leaders, including MP Jebran Tueni. In short, the attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah and the kidnappings of soldiers were the tip of an offensive aimed at drawing attention away from Iran’s nuclear weapons programs and Syria’s assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri. Hezbollah was awaiting its moment for revenge against the Cedar Revolution too.
What we see now is 1) a Syro-Iranian sponsored offensive aimed at all democracies in the region and fought in Lebanon; 2) Israel’s counter offensive (which it seems to have prepared earlier); and 3) an attempt by Hezbollah to take over or crumble the Lebanese government.
Lopez: So…did the Cedar Revolution fail?
Phares: Actually, it would be more accurate to say that the Cedar Revolution was failed. The masses in Lebanon responded courageously in March 2005 by putting 1.5 million people on the streets of Beirut. They did it without “no-fly-zones,” expeditionary forces, or any weapons at all, for that matter, and against the power of three regimes, Iran, Syria, and pro-Syrian Lebanon, in addition to Hezbollah terror. The “revolution” was for a time astoundingly successful; since then it has been horribly failed, and first of all by Lebanon’s politicians themselves. One of their leaders, General Michel Aoun, shifted his allegiances to Syria and signed a document with Hezbollah. Other politicians from the “March 14 Movement” then stopped the demonstrations, leaving them with the support of God knows what. They failed in removing the pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud and brought back a pro-Syrian politician to serve as a speaker of the house, Nabih Berri. Meanwhile, even as they were elected by the faithful Cedar Revolution masses, they engaged in a round table dialogue with Hezbollah, a clear trap set by Hassan Nasrallah: “Let’s talk about the future,” he said — with the implication, of course, that they forget about the Cedar Revolution and the militia’s disarming. While political leaders sat for months, enjoying the photo ops with Hassan Nasrallah, he was preparing his counter offensive, which he unleashed just a few days before the Security Council would discuss the future of Iran’s nuclear programs.
The Lebanese government of Prime Minister Seniora also abandoned the Cedar Revolution. His cabinet neither disarmed Hezbollah nor called on the U.N. to help in implementing UNSCR 1559. This omission is baffling. The government was given so much support by the international community and, more importantly, overwhelming popular support inside Lebanon: 80 percent of the people were hoping the Cedar Revolution-backed government would be the one to resume the liberation of the country. Now Hezbollah has an upper hand and the government is on the defensive.
The U.S. and its allies can be accused of certain shortcomings as well. While the speeches by the U.S. president, congressional leaders from both parties, Tony Blair, and Jacques Chirac were right on target regarding Lebanon, and while the U.S. and its counterparts on the Security Council were diligent in their follow up on the Hariri assassination and on implementing UNSCR 1559, there was no policy or plan to support the popular movement in Lebanon. Incredibly, while billions were spent on the war of ideas in the region, Lebanese NGOs that wanted to resume the struggle of the Cedar Revolution and fighting alone for this purpose were not taken seriously at various levels. Policy planners thought they were dealing with the “Cedar Revolution” when they were meeting Lebanon’s government and Lebanese politicians. The difference between the high level speeches on Lebanon and the laissez-faire approach from lower levels is amazing. Simply put, there was no policy on supporting the Cedar Revolution against the three regimes opposing it and the $400 million received by Hezbollah from Iran.
The Cedar Revolution was basically betrayed by its own politicians and is now essentially without a head. Nevertheless, as long as the international support remains, the Revolution will find its way and will face the dangers. The one and a half million ordinary citizens who braved all the dangers didn’t change their minds about Hezbollah’s terror. The resistance and counter-attack was to be expected. Unfortunately, thus far Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah have outmaneuvered the West and are at the throats of the Cedar Revolution. The international community must revise its plans, and, if it is strongly backed by the U.S. and its allies, including France, the situation can be salvaged. The good seeds are still inside the country.
More at link...
Total owns a 50% stake in the project, alongside Norway's Hydro (40%) and Russia's Nenets Oil Company (10%).
http://www.trend.az/?mod=shownews&news=28256&lang=en
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
And with a piece of paper, and Putin's signature, Russia will suddenly own 90% and the others 5% each, take it or leave it.
>>>There is in Colorado, with finance and one named WTC bldg.
I saw that - definitely an eye-opener.
If the addresses add up...hmmmm, now wouldn't that be interesting.<<<
I did not get the chance to take this thought on to research.
I managed to hear all the Gunny Bob show on the radio, now Rick Barbor is coming on, he is open to all phone calls so it will be a wild program.
850koa.com has a way to listen on the computer, I think you have to sign in to do so.
Gunny Bob was gone tonight and Shawn Rima was filling in for him. Shawn considers himself to be a joker, bills himself as an "old hippy".
Tonight, he was a man of great depth, offering what understanding he could in a situation, that as a father, he could fully feel the pain.
He spoke both as a Christian and the "old hippy", it is well worth listening to his portion of the program, as he dealt in facts and was not interested in "thoughts" and "maybe's".
Shawn had the KOA reporters on air, for in depth interviews and the Sheriff, I have heard the finest of men and women that work at KOA tonight, they talked of trying to gather news, when they wanted to join the parents who were on the ground kneeling in prayer.
The Sheriff has a son in the school and knows the dead girl well, he is a man with depth also.
The KOA reporter says he heard of horrible things going on in the class room with the killer, it is said that the boys who left last, on the killers orders, had these horrible things and reported them.
It is said the back pack had sex toys in it, this is not proven fact, but it does seem to be a fact that the girls were sexually molested.
The parents were kept back some distance and the school moved the kids out in busses, that must have been pure hell to stand there, waiting as the busses brought out the kids and not to bring yours.
It is said the killer was in the school for a while and stopped one boy, asked what class he was going to, and told him to go and learn a lot.
School will be closed for the rest of the week, they are searching for a bomb, and since he was there for a time, before entering the class room, so there is a good chance that he did bring in a bomb.
It is said that the killer may not be from the area, could be in his 30 to 40's, the student that talked to him in the hall, said that he had on a hooded sweat shirt, but that he had grey hair showing under his hood.
Now, Rick Barbor is taking calls from people, anyone that calls, so a lot of it will be wild.
For me, I am speechless and confused, that the Cops will not release the name, that leaves me thinking, that it will be either a jihadi, or a mexican name. And the police do not want the town to explode, with revenge.
Washington, the man who drive by shot the Denver Deputy a few days ago, the one that could be a black prison jihadi, has had another charge filed against him, for drive by shooting at a woman in a car, the same night, or so I think.
Neither the Deputy or the woman are associated with the killer that is in jail, they proved there was not connection to the Deputy..........and the Deputy, was in plain clothes in his personal car, stopped at a stop sign, when he was shot.
Thanks for the link, I have it on paper, so I can check later, it looks interesting.
Tonight, I am not learning a lot.
I think the world is afraid to report the riots, no one knows when the world will wake up and fight back.
One of these days, this world will start to react.
How am I ?
Good question, still very dizzy, but have moved on past the 7 up, to grape juice and the pineapple cake, that my sister sent to me.................
So expect to live.
If I am reading the Wizbang post right, it says the ACLU is paying attention to the expected OBL tape?
Now that worries me, maybe more than the tape will....
The entire post, fits well with my thoughts.
Thank you.
His family has to be special people, and thanks to God for allowing him to be adopted into a home that cares for him.
DITTO that.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1709792/posts
Tancredo valiant not to tap dance
The Denver Post ^ | 9/28/2006 | David Harsanyi
Posted on 09/28/2006 1:16:54 AM PDT by PikesPeakGOP
Many of us find Tom Tancredo's views on immigration a bit much, but that certainly doesn't mean the guy is wrong about everything.
The most recent brouhaha surrounding the GOP congressman from Littleton began when he penned a letter urging Pope Benedict XVI not to apologize for remarks he made about radical Islam.
continues at above link, worth reading, exposes a politician or two......
Nag, came to work on the campaign from Pelosi, as I recall, as I ran across this a couple days ago, on the denver website.
granny
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1709791/posts
N. Korea Digging New Tunnels Where Nuclear Tests Are Possible(potential HEU site also located)
Munhwa Ilbo ^ | 09/28/06 | Kim Jong-tae
Posted on 09/28/2006 1:05:19 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
/begin my translation
N. Korea Digging New Tunnels Where Nuclear Tests Are Possible
5 Tunnels in the valley of Mu-myong Mountain... could also be missile bases
Kim Jong-tae
Intelligence agencies have learned that N. Korea is digging five new tunnels suspected to be a missile base in the valley of Mu-myong Mountain(2851 ft), Shi-jung County, Jagang Province, N. Korea. They are looking into it carefully.
In particular, they do not rule out the possibility that the tunnels could be used for nuclear test. Furthermore, they also received intelligence that there are uranium-enrichment facilities at Hwa-pyong County, Jagang Province, and now trying to verify it by examining satellite photos.
A high-level government official said on Sept. 28, "We came to the possession of intelligence that N. Korea has been constructing five tunnels in the valley of Mu-myong Mountain recently. We were able to verify the existence of five such tunnels. While it is quite likely that this is another missile base in the rear area, we should not rule out that it could be also an underground nuclear test site."
The intelligency outfits are now trying to find out any additional indication that storage facilities for rocket propellent are also under construction.
The source also said, "Some recent N. Korean defectors gave us information that uranium enrichment facilities are located at Hwa-pyong County, Jagang Province. We are trying to verify it from satellite images. Hwa-pyong County is a remote mountain area. Chances are high that they could construct sensitive installations there, requiring extra security."
Another government figure said, "N. Korea has high quality uranium mine. It turned out that Pakistan's Dr. Abdul Kadir Khan had provided N. Korea with centrifuge devices. N. Korea could be running uranium enrichment project. If such facilities exist, N. Korea would use it to boost their bargaining power during their negotiation with U.S."
Defense Ministry stated that N. Korea was suspected to be building uranium enrichment facilities in a classified report submitted last Sept. to S. Korea's legislature.
Currently, N. Korea officially denies the existence of uranium enrichment program. However, N. Korea has uranium mines producing good quality ore, and Dr. Khan provided N. Korean with 20 centrifuges, crucial devices for the enrichment process. S. Korea and U.S. intelligence are both paying keen attention to the facilities at Hwa-pyong County.
Especially, we should be reminded that the second N. Korean nuclear crisis was precipitated when N. Korea's Highly Enriched Uranium(HEU) Program was known to the world in late 2002. If the uranium enrichment facilities are to be confirmed, it will have serious repercussion.
Kim Jong-tae Yang Sung-wook
2006/09/28
/end my translation
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1709447/posts
Bailey (Col.) School Hostage Situation (Update: Standoff over, 1 student and perp dead)
CBS4 Denver ^ | 9/27/06 | cbs4denver
Posted on 09/27/2006 11:57:19 AM PDT by conservative in nyc
Platte Canyon High School in Bailey was evacuated early Wednesday afternoon because of a hostage situation with a gunman, Park County emergency dispatchers said.
[for the link]
This report does say they found a suspicious devise.
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/local/article/0,1299,DRMN_15_5024828,00.html
Tancredo can be a bit over the top in his rhetoric, but he still get re-elected time and again... He can't be all that bad! (o: Gosh all this news from Colorado the last few days really is making me homesick. (And to add to it now, my best friend (an Air Force Major's wife) is in CO Springs! We move out of CO and she gets shipped there from Florida!) Kinda crazy that bad, scary news would make one yearn to be back there though.
You're welcome. I could barely stomach reading Nasrallah's speech and it's a long one too. I ended up skimming half of it because it was making me angry and sick to my stomach at the same time...
What's interesting is that the ATF originally told 9News that the explosion was the gunman's explosive device going off, and that's what prompted the SWAT team going in... I don't know why the ATF would forward information like that unless they believed it were true.
Then they retracted that -- after a long while I might add - and according to the other agencies (The Sheriff's Dept.'s) the explosion was the percussion or "flashbang" grenades set off to try and distract the gunman, prior to the SWAT team going in.
When they gave the second press conference at 8:30 Denver time they stated the bomb techs were STILL clearing the building... I don't know why the ATF would give out that kind of info if it weren't true. (Perhaps it was a misunderstanding, but the 9News team is one of the better ones in Denver, IMHO. Again another outlet that seemed to try to get the "whole story" instead of always promoting an agenda...)
Anyway, I guess the SWAT team that was right there would have better info as I think the ATF and such were outside (don't know that for sure though). There were tons of agencies and officials at the scene (FBI, ATF, CBI, Sheriff's Offices, PD, Bomb Techs, Medics, Counselors, negotiators, etc...).
It will be interesting to find out who in the heck this guy was though. There is a rumor he had some kind of relationship, but the Sheriff Wegener looked truly baffled as did the guy from the CBI. If he was related he didn't live in the area... I wouldn't put the relationship angle as more than a rumor at this point though.
A slide show of the shooting at the school:
http://cfapp2.rockymountainnews.com/ssslideshow/slideshow_main.cfm?xml=http://cfapp2.rockymountainnews.com/ssslideshow/092706baily3/092706baily3.xml&slideShowType=dayInPhotos&slideShowName=092706baily3&dateCreated=09/27/06
Oh, I also remember reading a student say that he picked blonde, blue-eyed girls for his hostages and the student said she found that a little strange, but I can't find that quote now... Don't know if it got edited out, but if you run across that little bit of info, please let me know...
It must be a stressful day for you, I will wait to see your page on the school murders, as I have had all I can take right now.
It is good to know that you have it all in one place.
Isn't life strange, how God pulls a few strings and your life is different forever.
The photos show the shock to the kids, it will never leave them.
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