Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[nwctwx]

I'd guess it might get close to Cape Cod, but that's about it.

You never know though.

[metmom]

Should I burn the couple hours to watch its constant running on the HBO/Cinemax family?


Yeah, cause it's not worth buying. I found a lot of it totally unbelievable. Not a lot of good science there.

[SauronOfMordor]

Can you send me that link? I live in St. Pete and it's gonna be divorce time because my husband wants to stay no matter what cat storm, and there is a point (Cat 3), when I'm outta here with our daughter. We're at a whopping 47 feet above sea level, which is considered no evac zone.

No Need for divorce

Do you have two cars? If so, no problem. Tell him he can stay, and you're going to visit friends/relatives far away from shore (better yet, up north) for the weekend. Make sure you have his insurance policy number before you go

Even if you don't have two cars, you must have a friend in the area in a similar situation. Have a "girl's weekend".

[nwctwx]

That low should weaken as it moves east. It was forecast to nudge the system prior to the main action from canada picking it up.

[dawn53]

I was born in St. Pete, as was my Mom, and I didn't even know we had any place in the city that high in elevation. I always thought Disston Ridge was the high point of the city at around 40 feet above sea level. Well, goes to show, you learn something new everyday.

[markman46]

AH ok, I know it chuged out of here yesterday afternoon northeasterly, or at least that was the drection the clouds were headed in.

[U S Army EOD]

We have to quit meeting like this.

[U S Army EOD]

I am pretty far away but I can take several campers or RV's on my land. I am in Washington, GA. Freepmail me if you are interested.

[CedarDave]

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 18
Statement as of 5:00 pm EDT on October 19, 2005
Agreement among the track guidance models...which had been very good over the past couple of days...has completely collapsed today. The 06z runs of the GFS...GFDL...and NOGAPS models accelerated Wilma rapidly toward New England under the influence of a large low pressure system in the Great Lakes region. All three of these models have backed off of this solution...with the GFDL showing an extreme change...with its 5-day position shifting a mere 1650 nmi from its previous position in Maine to the western tip of Cuba. There is almost as much spread in the 5-day positions of the 12z GFS ensemble members...which range from the Yucatan to well east of the Delmarva Peninsula...

Simply amazing! If it wasn't so serious I would be LOL!

[DocRock]

Bookmark

[buickmackane]

RDTF posted:

just saw on CNN:

Cayman Islands weather cams
http://caymanchillin.com/caymanchillin-live.htm

webcam ping -- thanks!

[buickmackane]

RDTF posted:

http://www.cozumel-hotels.net/webcam/

webcam ping -- thanks again!

[lupie]

My mother also lives in Venice. We are trying to talk her into going north. She is 75, has an awful back. She has a good friend a few years older and not doing well at all - she is on oxygen. But they have other friends who tell them not to be concerned. Both my brother and my husband have offered to fly down there tomorrow and drive them north somewhere. She has supplies and a tank of gas, but not much water and won't go to the store because it will "be a mess". I thought I had her convinced earlier today to just leave. My brother said she told him that they didn't want them going up into Georgia.

Where are your inlaws? My mother lives in the Plantations.

[jslade]

The shingles are stripped off. The steel panels are screwed directly to the plywood underlayment. Steel is the best. Yes, it is more expensive, but consider the benefits. You want blue tarps?

[backhoe]

Just FYI and FWIW, my wife reminded me that the Center where she works has six (6) hookups for RV's. It's about one hour's drive north of Jacksonville, Florida. It is, however, right on the coast, on a river. $10 a night, she "thinks"-- they don't use them much.

[don-o]

Curious, my new and solid FRiend; is that your very on graphic?

[NautiNurse]

IIRC, the metal roof is just about double the cost of shingles, and much more durable with twice the lifespan of shingles. Went with a reflective white metal roof. It is the most energy efficient of all roofing materials, including white barrel tiles. Reduced a/c costs 28% for July and August compared to dark gray shingles.

Roof material energy efficiency study

[Alia]

Checking in. Thanks for the ping!

[NonValueAdded]

FWIW, I just noticed there are three of those highway message boards staged in the median on I-95 just south of US 192 in Melbourne, our major westbound evac route. Perhaps they are there for some event and it's just a coincidence but more likely Florida Emergency Management is on the ball. Lord knows they've had enough practice! Let's see, Governor Blank-o or Jeb, which would I choose (as if it required any thought).

[Stonewall Jackson]

Twelve years ago, on my parents anniversary, we had a tornado hit our town. I stood in the front window of our house and watched it go over our roof at about one hundred feet (yeah, I know that was stupid). We were fortunate in that it knocked over a couple of trees, twisted the tops out of a few others, and tore some shingles off the roof.

It was only an F1, but it ripped the daylights out of the town, wrecked the movie theater, a church, and two neighborhoods. For a long time the national weather service didn't want to admit that it was a tornado, since their Doppler radar didn't pick it up, but one of my neighbors had videotaped it and that finally forced them to admit that Doppler doesn't always detect smaller tornadoes.