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Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Hey! I must be getting old, that chart plot for Mitch that you posted made a liar out of me.
Now I can't remember whether I'm thinking of another hurricane or whether Mitch spawned a tornado in the upper Keys. I think the tornado scenario is correct.
Taking it over Yucatan and Mexico as a Cat-5?
Yikes!
I wish one of you smart guys would tell me if I need to evacuate my family from St Pete.
The latest direct hurricane hit on the Keys was Georges, also in 1998.
I think their crystal balls are in the shop -- and I don't think we can trust the cardreaders in NO. Guess we wait awhile to see....
I saw a gnarly graphic today of worst case storm surge scenario... most of east side of Pinellas would be underwater...
They're talking about a Sunday landfall, so hold tight until at least tomorrow afternoon - there's way too much uncertainty in the forecast track now.
Odds are you'll be on the weaker side of the storm.
Our local news -- NBC10 in Philly -- has started with the "Oh, my God, Killer Death Hurricane headed our way!" tripe as of the noon nooze...
No way
This morphed (in motion) 85MHz microwave imagery shows the tightly defined eye change into something a little more ambiguous.
Microwave lets us see through the upper level cloud formation to what is going on with the organization closer to the sea surface.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2005_TWENTY-FOUR/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html
Can you send me that link? I live in St. Pete and it's gonna be divorce time because my husband wants to stay no matter what cat storm, and there is a point (Cat 3), when I'm outta here with our daughter. We're at a whopping 47 feet above sea level, which is considered no evac zone.
Thanks for the info
Where will Wilma go? There is now a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast for Wilma. A major shift in the model guidance occurred with the just completed 12Z (8 am) runs. Three of the top models--the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models--now show that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pull Wilma sharply northwards and then northeast across Florida is progressing slower than expected, and will not dig as far south. If this forecast verifies, it would be very bad news for Mexico. Wilma may not pass east of Mexico through the Yucatan Channel as originally thought, and may instead make a landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula near Cozumel or Cancun Island on Thursday night or Friday morning, probably as a Category 4 hurricane.
However, this would be very good news for Florida. Any encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula would cause a serious disruption of the hurricane, and make it unlikely that Wilma could affect Florida as a major hurricane. A hit on southwest Florida as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane would be most likely, and the arrival of the hurricane would be delayed until Sunday. It is quite possible that Wilma would not affect Florida as a hurricane at all; the GFDL model forecasts that Wilma will spend three days over Mexico and emerge off the coast as a tropical storm and pass south of Cuba. So, if I lived in Florida and was thinking about evacuating today, I would wait another day and see what the forecast tomorrow brings. Keep in mind, though, that the NOGAPS model, which is one of the top four models for tracking hurricanes, is still showing that Wilma will pass through the Yucatan Channel and a make landfall in southwest Florida as a major hurricane. The Canadian model is showing this as well.
That's new and different. They must have gotten the machine fixed.
After sitting in traffic 19.5 hours for a 90 mile drive last month, I would much prefer not to repeat the exercise. Besides, the Quilt Show is next week in Houston, dammit and west would be remarkably inconvenient.
I'm almost certain someone posted that graphic from the St. Pete Times earlier today on this thread.
Wish we could tell you right now. There are 3 models still showing a Florida landfall - UKMET and NHC90 (kind of hard to see that yellow track have Wilma going in around Cape Coral (same as the 11 am official track), and LBAR continues to show Tampa as the target. The others (GFDL, and the BAM family) show her being an extended tourist in the Yucatan.
It would be prudent to get the evac and prep kits ready in any case. More should be known by tomorrow morning.
Well..Schnitt just had on some weather guy who got the inside scoop from the national center about the stalling and turning...but it is always speculation......
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