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Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
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Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
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| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
I'm with you....and you know this.
In my layman's opinion, I'm willing to bet the further north it goes will be due to forecasting an increase in forward speed. It'll skip along that cold front like a rock on water.
WFTV said SOUTH Melbourne. But that is no comfort at all when tracks can shift..
My in-laws live in Venice. We spoke to them this morning and my father-in-law was packing for his hunting trip to CO. He's leaving tomorrow. My mother-in-law "has plenty of water and supplies." Their condo is on the beach and I'm not a happy camper about their "plans!" Grrrr!
In Katrina our words were "bowl" and "soup bowl". "Soup bowl" was worth a double shot.
WKMG (ch 6 out of Orlando) is saying it may not lose much strength before hitting land. Could be a CAT 4!
Have airline tixs for Fort Myers for first week of march. May need to take my own tent for housing.
Hopefuly Wilma doesn't crash the party.
I don't know the station or the forecasters there, however, when a commercial station is involved, hype is the name of the game to keep their ratings up.
We don't call them "FRAUDcasters" for nothing...
Hey Steve-O
I know that storm surge potential is governed by pressure gradiant but I don't know what part high forward speed plays in the equation. Does a Cat 4 gradiant moving a 35 knots carry forward a bigger or smaller surge than a Cat 4 moving at ten knots?
South Melbourne? That is a distance difference of what, a mile? :) Maybe if he said Melbourne Beach vs Melbourne. But either one would be on the NW side of the storm. The same deal for storm surge for Tampa Bay - wrong side of the storm? Or is there a track well north of what even the models show?
Parents can be so stubborn, it's perplexing! Will keep your MIL in my prayers.
Damn good question.
the jet stream is picking it up and pushing it out. I imagine that once that happens, that jet stream will also cause alot of shear to weaken it.
Check with jeffers for one of the best FR answerers regarding this type of question... janet is good, too, but I don't know the whole nic...
I'm pretty sure, though, that the forward speed of the hurricane can be added to the radial wind strength on the "right" of the hurricane, and subtracted on the "left" to get the wind strength. Surge is related to that, so on the right side, the surge is greater.
http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/breaking/news-article.aspx?storyid=45967
Gov Bush live webcast 1 pm, waiting for it to start!
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