Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[steveegg]

Looking at the Minneapolis forecast, add an umbrella as well. Friday high of 52, Saturday/Sunday highs of 47, lows in the mid-to-upper 30s, and rain (and possibly snow Saturday night; something I'm missing in suburban Milwaukee).

[floriduh voter]

I am fairly inland but the way they talk about storm surges, it sounds like inland means all of Pinellas County. The Tampa Tribune has a disaster virtual tour on their web site. I think the keyword may be: surge. If I finish up with my preparedness later today, I'll go look for it.

Wind is what concerns me. I've grown attached to having a roof over my head and also having power.

[Genoa]

For what it's worth: The NHC track map for 11 AM EDT now has Wilma touching the Yucatan Peninsula (track adjusted west from the 5 AM), and now the Florida track crosses right over Lake Okeechobee, a slight adjustment to the north from the 5 AM. So: The closer it gets to Yucatan, the closer it gets to Tampa?? Is that a fair inference?

[cll]

That's why we do homes of reinforced concrete down here in the Caribbean. As a minimum, reinforced concrete columns, with reinforced cynder blocks (steel rods through the cavities and then filled in with more concrete) for walls. In Puerto Rico we do mostly reinforced concrete roof slabs and in the Virgin Islands they do steel slanting roofs for the dual purpose of strom protection and to collect rainwater. Homes in potential flood areas are built on reinforced concrete stilts.

Concrete might not be as energy efficient as wood/dry wall in the northern latitudes, but at least here you can roll the shutters down, crank the generator, break out the rum and watch the hurricane on the news as it goes over you.

[libtoken]

From the Monroe County FL EOC:


Hurricane Wilma Advisory No. I: Monroe County Emergency Management Officials have ordered all visitors and non-residents to begin leaving the Keys at noon today as powerful Hurricane Wilma continues on a forecast track that may bring it very close to the Florida Keys Saturday, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.

Emergency Management officials decided to move up the timetable for emergency actions because of the increased intensity of the storm, which is now a category five.

All visitors and non residents must leave the Keys starting at noon today. Also, all state parks will be closed, residents and non-residents in recreational vehicles and high profile vehicles are also ordered to leave. Tolls on the Card Sound bridge will be suspended

A local state of emergency has been declared by county officials.

Given the current forecast track, tropical storm force winds (39 miles per hour and more) are expected to begin to impact the Keys late Friday night or early Saturday morning.

Further emergency actions will be announced later today by County Emergency Management Officials.

[Fellow Traveler]

My wife and I's first vacation together in years is suppossed to be Cancun on the 1st of November. Here is hoping this thing blows itself out before it makes landfall.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Max Mayfield on Fox now. He says the storm surge will be great to Florida and he said Charley was like a small tornado. This storm is not.

[floriduh voter]

I'm good re: the water but wind is another event altogether. Let's just hope Wilma loses her go get em attitude when she gets to the cooler waters in the Gulf.

[steveegg]

For what it's worth: The NHC track map for 11 AM EDT now has Wilma touching the Yucatan Peninsula (track adjusted west from the 5 AM), and now the Florida track crosses right over Lake Okeechobee, a slight adjustment to the north from the 5 AM. So: The closer it gets to Yucatan, the closer it gets to Tampa?? Is that a fair inference?

Not necessarily. Using the current suite of computer models, the NHC track is currently following the GFDL model. That indicates a sideswipe of the Yucatan Peninsula and landfall somewhere around Cape Coral.

The other models agree with the Yucatan sideswipe, with the exception of UKMET, which has her plowing through the Yucatan Peninsula. The models also diverge on where the US landfall will be. LBAR is currently indicating a Tampa-area landfall, NHC90 (which has been literally all over the map) is suggesting a trip through the Keys and a grazing of the far southeast tip of Florida, and the BAM family and UKMET is suggesting landfall at the northwest corner of the Everglades.

[SE Mom]

Good grief, Max Mayfield..while always a reassuring and calm presence..certainly got my attention with his news conf.

There is going to be a storm surge on the Florida Gulf coast that sounds nasty.

[steveegg]

Good grief, Max Mayfield..while always a reassuring and calm presence..certainly got my attention with his news conf.

There is going to be a storm surge on the Florida Gulf coast that sounds nasty.

I believe the phrase I would have used if I ran that presser starts with "Oh" and ends with a long string of expletives.

[metmom]

Where did you find that info? I'd like to get hold of models like that to keep an eye on the NE, too.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Local WFTV just said as it stands, Melbourne and Southern Osceola get it the worst inland as the storm crosses Fl. My nephew mentioned the jet stream is close (I think around Georgia) and should have a weakening influence. Is this so?

[NonValueAdded]

'sup? Local and national news is pushing hard on the panic button, even for Central Florida east coast. Are we getting Katrina "don't want to be wrong" coverage or will the entire state be evacuating soon? FR is the best place I know to find out the real scoop.

[AFPhys]

Simply stated: your post regarding Katrina is absolutely wrong.

The forecasters predicted Katrina's landfall within 30nm many days before it struck N.O. --- and it was totally settled by Friday evening.

I won't address the other errors in the post, but you are greatly misinformed. At a minimum, it appears that you don't have any clue as to how to interpret the presentation of the models.

[NautiNurse]

Tampa Bay local saying to sit tight. Too soon to know where the storm is going.

[Siouxz]

Why did they move to Florida? Where are they?

They're in North Port, near Venice. They got jobs down there--there's nothing here in Johnstown, PA. It's a dead town.

[Guenevere]

MELBOURNE!!!....as in Florida, not Australia?

My Melbourne

Yikes!

[Dont_Tread_On_Me_888]

I am in FL.

BTW, I had 3 hurricanes hit me last year, my insurance company gave me $13,000 in change for damgage, I repaired/remodeled at a total cost of $120,000 and the only thing I got free was one bag of ice.

1] I was indured

2] I am a taxpayer

and 3] I had the desire to go to school and work and innvest and save and so I could take $100,000 + out of my investments and upgrade my home after the damage.

and 4] I never rioted and had no desire to ask for any money from anybody, including FEMA which I could have done.

and 5] I live in a nice suburb of Orlando, not a cesspool like New Orleans, so even though I have a .357 Magnum to protect myself form New Orleans types invading Orlando, our neighbors actually helped each other -- imagine that!

The charity $ and Federal $ after storms is a total fraud. The scum of society sees how much they can rip-off the Feds and the Feds have no way to manage billions being handed out so they just give it away.