Tropical Storm Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Rita has developed from TD 18 in the Atlantic Ocean. TS Rita is currently located north of Hispaniola, the eastern tip of Cuba, and ESE of Nassau, Bahamas. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for portions of Florida. Check for local weather statements.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only!
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live"
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - mms://216.242.118.141/broadband

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Gimme]

I wonder how they can tell it won't stall out, like katrina did, and gather strength?

[CedarDave]

Abb is correct. Nagin is bringing residents back into NOLA as we speak.

As the likelihood of another hurricane looms, I suspect the President is readying orders to federalize and take over control of the city to prevent this from happening.

[AntiGuv]

yep

[Diddle E. Squat]

Luckily the model producing the yellow track is almost always very wrong.

[shield]

The track across the gulf will allow Rita to steam up, she actually doesn't need to stall. I haven't seen any discussions so far on a problem with steering currents.

[LBelle]

I know that but being located 100 miles north is better than 50 miles north. I will take every inch I can get.

[shield]

What are you thinking regarding Rita? Or is it just too early?

[jpsb]

"A landfall just west of Galveston is a worst case scenario"

Yup, lets hope Rita does not do that or if she does, she does not grow into a cat 4 or 5, that would be very bad.

[lifacs]

Mandatory evacuation of Keys as of noon today.

[ElisabethInCincy]

I know its so early to ask this, But lets say that Gfdl model is correct isnt this the worst case for NO ... Being on the right side of the eye ?...

[Gimme]

"a bit early to be slamming Nagin"

LOL, surely you jest.

[abb]

Rain. Think lots of rain. Pumps not all working. Not good.

[brytlea]

Yeah, I felt that here in Delray. In fact, I was talking to hubby on the phone in Boca and he said it looked like a whiteout. Oh well, everyone here says we need the rain!
susie

[brytlea]

I thought so. Now, I know I'm not the only one!
He's stupid!!!!!
susie

[SE Mom]

I am really dumb-founded by Nagin's attitude at the moment. The last three weeks have been an enormous learning curve for thousands of people- how did he escape this curve?

Rita is in legitimate play. The Army Corps of Eng says the levee's are no longer up to a cat 3- what is this guy THINKING? Even if NOLA escapes a DIRECT hit - as it did with Katrina (remember it came in east of NOLA) the rain and possible surge etc can prove disasterous.

What's the matter with the mayor?

[swarthyguy]

The blue and green are just as bad, if not worse, as a bullseye on the port of Houston and the oil/gas platforms, piplelines, shipping......

[brothers4thID]

Well I did say he was an impompetant boob.

[brytlea]

I have a nephew in Galveston, how bad would it be??
susie

[Diddle E. Squat]

For Houstonians, the large shift to Galveston right now may actually end up being good news. Since in just 24 hours it has moved from around Brownsville to Corpus to Houston, odds are that it will shift at least a bit more east. Way too early to reach conclusions, but my gut thinks that this won't get much west of Pt. Arthur, leaving us on the cleaner side of the storm.

Galveston could still be in a heap of trouble, especially if the center gets near High Island, because storm surge could wash over the Bolivar P. and push in from the NE. No seawall on the north side of the island, much of which is below 10'.

[AntiGuv]

Not exactly. The GFDL would put it far enough away from NO that the city would only get weak tropical storm force winds at most. The worse case scenario would be on the right side of the eye but with the eye much closer - say about 20-30 miles or so away. The GFDL has it about 150+ miles away.