Tropical Storm Rita Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Tropical Storm Rita has developed from TD 18 in the Atlantic Ocean. TS Rita is currently located north of Hispaniola, the eastern tip of Cuba, and ESE of Nassau, Bahamas. Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for portions of Florida. Check for local weather statements.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only!
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - http://dayport.wm.llnwd.net/dayport_0025_live"
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP) - mms://216.242.118.141/broadband

Other Resources:

Florida East Coast Surf Reports Lots of great info here, including surf cams
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[SlowBoat407]

Just answering ;^)

[mewzilla]

Ironic that Nagin chooses now to "take charge"....imbecile.

Ironic, stupid, and criminal. If, God forbid, Rita gets close enough to dump a lot of rain on NO, what the heck is that lunatic going to do then?!

[mhking]

I guess that means that Palm Beach COunty is off the track map.....

According to WFOR, at this point, yes, but as you know, things change quickly. The hurricane warnings are for Miami-Dade & Monroe Counties. TS Warnings/Watches run northward from there.

[CindyDawg]

Now that's a big storm:')

[CajunConservative]

The mayor and the EOC director here are on the ball. They addressed this scenario right after Katrina hit and took into consideration the fact that most of the evacuees here don't have transportation.

http://www.kplctv.com/Global/story.asp?s=3814622

[NTegraT]

Now, it's "predicted" to come right over my house. It keeps being curved to the right and we're still 4-5 days out. I don't wish this on LA either but I liked it better when it went to the King Ranch

[Prolifeconservative]

Can you believe this: Nagin now saying, "enter the city at your own risk." This mayor is no leader!

[libtoken]

Tropical Storm Rita Discussion Number 7


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 19, 2005



since the last recon fix shortly before 12z...which measured a 997
mb central pressure...very deep convection has wrapped around the
low level center...so Rita is developing substantial inner core
convection for the first time. Dvorak intensity estimates at 12z
were unanimously t3.5/55 kt...which is the advisory intensity.
Recon is scheduled to be back into the system early this afternoon.
Rita is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 10
knots...to the south of the eastern extension of a strong mid-level
ridge centered over Texas. Dynamical models are in very tight
agreement through 36 hours on basically this continued
heading...with perhaps a slight increase in forward speed as the
ridge to the north strengthens and the tropical cyclone deepens.
Most of the models and their consensus have shifted northward...and
the official forecast is adjusted likewise...bringing the track
closer to the Florida Keys than the previous advisory.
Additionally...most of the models have shifted farther north late
in the forecast period over the western Gulf of Mexico...due to a
weakening ridge as a trough approaches from the western United
States in several days. The official forecast is adjusted to the
north or right over the Gulf...but not as far as the model
consensus.
Recon data and surface observations indicate the size of the storm
is increasing...especially to the north of the center. The
forecast wind radii are expanded based on these data...wind radii
Cliper guidance...and global models depicting an expanding system.
It is important to emphasize that Rita could affect a large area
and one should not focus on the exact track.
Atmospheric conditions are continuing to become more conducive for
strengthening...and all forecast guidance suggests Rita should
intensify some more...before and after it reaches the Gulf of
Mexico. The new official intensity forecast is adjusted upward and
is a blend between the SHIPS and GFDL guidance through day 3...and
shows Rita reaching category two status before reaching the Gulf of
Mexico. There is a slight possibility it could strengthen faster
than forecast. All indications are that Rita will become a major
hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico... where a large upper level
anticyclone is forecast by the models to dominate and provide a
weak shear environment.

Forecaster Knabb


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/1500z 23.0n 75.2w 55 kt
12hr VT 20/0000z 23.4n 76.9w 70 kt
24hr VT 20/1200z 24.0n 79.4w 80 kt
36hr VT 21/0000z 24.4n 81.9w 90 kt
48hr VT 21/1200z 24.7n 84.5w 95 kt
72hr VT 22/1200z 25.5n 88.5w 100 kt
96hr VT 23/1200z 26.5n 92.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 24/1200z 29.0n 95.0w 100 kt

[Dog Gone]

A landfall just west of Galveston is a worst case scenario. The storm surge would bury the island and flood the massive petrochemical plants of Houston.

It's highly unlikely that the 5-day forecast is accurate, but if it is, we just thought gasoline prices were high right now.

[television is just wrong]

The Mayor of New Orleans, Mr. Nagin is calling for his people to return home in time for the NEXT bout of flooding.

THE MAN IS BRILLIANT (SARCASM OF COURSE)

[dirtboy]

The storm surge would bury the island and flood the massive petrochemical plants of Houston.

Alicia didn't have much of an impact of the refineries along the bay. But Alicia was a minimal Cat 3.

I've said since Katrina hit that we'd all better pray that Houston doesn't get hit by a Cat 4 or worse as well.

[OldSgt.]

Thing is, like the last one, a little jog North could really make things suck here like the jog south did to parts of Miami.

would you trust your children in the hands of Gov. when the $hit hits the fan?

[AntiGuv]

The model consensus is actually now pointing to due south of Lafayette Louisiana (which would put NOLA in the northeast quadrant, BTW). I'd expect the forecast track to move over into Louisiana by 11pm tonight if the models don't shift westward again.

That yellow track is disturbing.

[Fawn]

What does the governor have to do with this?

[rodguy911]

I just checked Mollasses Reef data buoy--22 knots gusts to 24 but the water temp. is approaching 86 degrees and further South I saw a data buoy with 87 degree water, storms love that hot water.

[blam]

Dang. Everytime I check in on this thread, Rita's landfall shifts more to the east.

I'm off to fill up the gas cans for my generators. Later.

[shield]

IS IT TOO EARLY TO TRUST THIS? If this far out we've got this track, are we looking at it moving further east (like border of TX/LA?

[OldSgt.]

Government, not governor as in "government schools".

[mhking]

TS force winds and above are forecast for Broward & southward; if I lived in Broward, I'd keep my kids home.

[GummyIII]

Just for discussion's sake, which model has the highest percent accuracy with predictions?